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Brty, any reasons for the quick replacement of stacks after the first two years?
All and Any of Dollar numbers quoted around here are pure fiction and guesstimates at best.
Origin have a ton of cash and own the gas and supply electricity.
All you can say, if you want to, is that we dont know
Cheers for the research brty.
IMHO the issue isn't whether people will buy them (sure it is expensive) but see post below, there is definately a market there. The question is will people buy them quick enough to avoid a capital rasing.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-sparks-solution/story-e6frg9no-1225894288727
I have a feeling we will have a big announcement on the way whether it will be good or bad. Have to wait and see but been happy about the positive news lately.
There are an average of 1738 hours of sunlight per year with an average of 4.8 hours of sunlight per day.
The Feed-in Law fixes tariffs for approved renewable energy projects for a 20-year period from the plant commissioning and will apply incremental price cuts. Tariffs were initially set at 48.1 cents per kilowatt hour for solar energy, 8.6 cents per kWh for wind, from 9.6 to 8.2 cents per kWh for biomass, 8.4 to 6.7 cents per kWh for geothermal and 7.2 to 6.3 cents per kWh for hydropower, waste and sewage gas.
While the average cost of a kilowatt hour of electricity in Europe for the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009 tallied €0.165,
Of the major cities, Perth is the sunniest (3,200 hours annually) and Melbourne is the least sunny (2,200 hours annually).
Yes, Germany has less sunlight hours than Melbourne, but more than the average of only 4 hours/day that I worked out earlier as being much better for solar over the BlueGen. A 10kw solar system in Germany will still produce as much electricity as the BlueGen over a year, with zero GHG emissions and no ongoing costs for the 110,000 Mj of gas used.
brty
Space restriction for solar panels on roof tops is key regarding Europe & Japan. Not to mention ideal positioning of panels towards the sun (which a majority do not have). Solar imo is impractical in dense cities. Australia on the other hand is better off going the solar option.
Space restriction for solar panels on roof tops is key regarding Europe & Japan.
Interesting. How much extra power did the upgrade supply them, If only 2kw, did the upgrade cost them over $70,000As an electrical engineer I could have saved a client a lot of money recently if I could have upgraded their supply with a bluegen. Instead we got an upgraded supply from the power company costing tens of thousands of dollars
moXJO,
Interesting. How much extra power did the upgrade supply them, If only 2kw, did the upgrade cost them over $70,000(of course $70,000 will only buy 5 years of use with BlueGen, I suspect the upgrade will last longer.)
A 10 kw solar system can be obtained for under $70k fully installed, including the frame, inverter,wiring etc. The panels alone would work out to ~$40-50k.
My real contention is that there is a huge demand for something like this off-grid, in remote locations where people currently use solar, plus diesel generators plus battery storage. To connect to a stand alone fuel cell, that could produce power on demand, from LPG/petrol/diesel would sell like hotcakes at high prices.
brty
JB,
The reason I was given is that "they don't know how long they will last". I asked for the difference in replacement times for the second and third stacks, it is assumed the technology will get better and the company will learn from the longer term operation of the initial units.
My point/question in regard to the "cash burn rate" is how does the company get to the future where the cost of the units is cheap enough to compete with solar generation, that has no ongoing costs?? Current revenues do not even cover the remuneration packages of directors and 'key personnel'. So where does the money come from for further research or production, or ongoing maintenance as per existing leases??
Frank,
Which numbers are you referring to?? The ones I have used are actual current existing numbers, no fiction whatsoever. If you have different, real existing numbers please provide them.
Feed-in tariffs for solar are at maximum 66c/kwh (Origin Energy in Vic) for less than 5kw systems, larger than that it is close to ordinary retail tariffs. The solar systems produce zero GHG emissions in the creation of electricity.
The BlueGen unit creates GHG in the production of electricity, certainly it is less than coal fired production, but it still produces them. It does not qualify for the rates attributed to solar, nor should it.
Assuming that it attracts the same feed-in rates as other small scale generation ~23 cents/kwh (peak and ~9 cents off-peak), what is the point of producing electricity at a cost of $1.37 /kwh during the first 2 years??
As a former, and about to be new again shareholder of Origin, to have one or two makes sense in terms of research. However considering that the cost of generating plant at a new modern large scale gas turbine plant is around $1200-$1500 per kw of capacity, and the efficiency of these newest gas turbines is around 57%, around the same as the BlueGen unit, then unless the cost of the units were to be ~$3,000, with ongoing maintenance at an equivalent to the large scale operation in terms of $/kwh of production, then it makes no economic sense to buy any more.
What don't we know??
Frank, your failure to acknowledge the existing numbers, begs me to ask the question of whether you have an association with the company in any capacity other than being a small shareholder??
brty
And I will continue to ignore, for the most part, the figures bandied around here because they are only speculation, not proved.
I dont think the cost will be 70k
I dont accept it will cost as much as 70k
contact a Neco Green Living Consultant on 1300 882 640
Please dont take the risk if you dont believe the story
Frank,
Again I ask which figures are speculation. If you refer to any of mine they are all fact, so please explain which figures you refer to as speculation.
Why do you find the actual numbers so difficult to believe?? Please look at the NECO website...
http://www.neco.com.au/index.php/fuel-cell/bluegenfaqs/
Ring them up yourself...
Once you have the actual numbers, get out a calculator, the numbers do not lie in this case.
In terms of investment, one should never believe "the story". The facts and numbers are the only guide, whether by technical analysis or fundamental analysis. I have no fear of the markets and only take proportionate risks. I have no money invested in this for a very good reason.
brty
We won't all be buying more than one straight away, as the cost is about $55,000. However, John Harrison of Harvey Norman Commercial said last night that there had been significant interest from government bodies and organizations with specific energy requirements.
Andrew Neilson of Ceramic Fuel Cells said his company had so far sold "just under 50 units", of which about a dozen were so far in operation
Anyone consider that CFU may have gone looking for other retailers, in this case Harvey Normans, because Neco were setting pricing and this 'lease' deal too high and they couldn't simply dump them due to contracts......might have to wait to see what Harvey Norman do with it.
You are right there has been only a small number of sales, but these 20 odd sales have been trial units purchased by key companies in the industry. For example the Japan sales went to a company who already has infrastructure and have used/sold something like 40,000 small petrol run generators in their current program. They purchased the Bluegen to assess it as a replacement or addition to their current program. It's these kinds of companies, who have/will have trial units, who will drive mass production not the general public.
In fact the 30 unit order by the Vic govt was the first bulk(if you could call it that) order.
I can see your skepticism of the Bluegen as a viable product at the quoted $70,000 odd and agree as I too balked at it, but I'll wait and see how things pan out.
Cheers
Frank,
You don't think that is the wholesale price to the reseller, who then puts his margin on top??
They seem to be buying only one.
Also in the Australian newspaper article, found here...
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-sparks-solution/story-e6frg9no-1225894288727
... was the following....
Apart from Vicurban's 30, total sales are still only 18-19 for the rest of the world since October 09, with 17 of those occurring before the end of April.
brty
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