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CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells

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In most instances I will use my gut instincts, and they are telling me that i am right.
For one, solar is a done deal, been there done that, its not something likely to be revisited by governments, to get 50k worth of solar on roofs of working families.
something new and exciting made in victoria/australia more fits the bill.

History tells me if the government isnt going to push/market the switch to clean and green, Australian working families are not going to pay 50k for something.

So lets see.
 
Criteria for investment.....

something new and exciting made in victoria/australia more fits the bill.
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I will use my gut instincts, and they are telling me that i am right.
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Australian working families are not going to pay 50k for something.
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Yet BlueGen costs $70,000 for a 5 year contract and has running costs of ~$1500 pa for gas alone.

I must admit. I cannot argue with that logic. Funny, I always thought that when we talked about investment it had something to do with money and efficient use of that money.
If investment is about new-exciting-gut instincts then I had better change the way I invest.

brty
 

I am sure there is nothing wrong with the way you invest or your decision making process.
Just that these are very different times we live in and there is no pure way to approach a product as unique and new as ceramic fuel cells.
Its very speculative, since we dont have all the information yet to make an informative decision, you can only use your gut instincts.
1. I dont believe the world would be after the technology if there was no money in it.
2. I still think it will be used because its so efficient and carbon friendly.

I dont accept it will cost as much as 70k, I do believe there will be an input tariff at least 1 to 1 in victoria, maybe more in other countries, and no matter the cost of gas it will be covered
 
New announcement just released on comsec has stated that Harvey Norman commercial division will be reselling bluegen units. Seems to have pushed up the price to 18cents
 
This is the best news as it puts BlueGen in front of and able to be bought by the Australian public. Is there any rebate available in Australia though?
 
The price went up to 19.5c, if the actual sale happening than it will be even better. I am holding of CFU ATM
 
Congratulations!! What a fantastic dishwashing unit !! Well at least that is way it's being reported.


http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network15207.html
 
The units are the size of a dish washer and one day may be as common but at least CFU don't make vacuum cleaners!
 
brty said:
Change the parameters to something realistic, like both connected to the grid and feed power back into the grid. Plus add in spending $70,000 on each.
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Where is the $70,000 price tag prediction coming from? In one article I read last year, the price was around $AUD8000 - almost a 1/10th of your suggested price:
"...
Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd plans to make the BlueGen product available in Victoria from early 2010. The company is in discussions with potential local manufacturing partners. It is also talking with potential purchasers of the BlueGen product in other markets, including Europe and North America. When mass-produced, the BlueGen products are forecast to cost around A$8000 (US$6200) each, with a payback period of seven years and a product lifetime of 15 years.
..."
Source: http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com...nches-modular-solid-oxide-fuel-cell-generator
 
Europe is where the money is. I don't think the market over here is that big for this type of product.
 
But if the cost was 10 times it is in Europe, what would stop someone importing them? Some baggage companies (ExcessBaggage) use volume rather than weight to calculate the cost of shipping. Surely it wouldn't cost $AUD60,000 to transport a dishwasher from Europe.

The UK / Europe is also 220-240V and as far as I know natural gas from the North Sea is pretty similar if not the same as the natural gas from Bass Strait.
 

The 70,000 price tag originates from the neco website.
Now, I dont think the cost will be 70k.
However now that it does, the shares are up 17%.
So go figure:
 

From Dono's post on page 24... i think this explains what you're looking for.
http://www.neco.com.au/index.php/fuel-cell/bluegenfaqs/
 
I thought that was the initial pricing as there was mention of mass production pricing around $3,500............although I may be mixing that up with the UK pricing

Nice tick up on that announcement today, wasn't expecting that one.
 
Wow, plenty of post on recent news... I know the price for the unit sounds expensive but I think it is a good place to start.

1. This is one of the first fuel cell's in the world to run off natural gas and be accessible to the public, that has to command a decent price.

2. They probably only have 50 or so sitting on the shelf so no good selling them for 10k a piece and have a thousand orders in the back log.

3. I am sure the price includes installation, maintenance, as well as the product itself (these costs add up) I think this is why they put it under the "contract" banner rather than saying you own it. Neco is supposed to take care of the whole lot. I am not sure if Harvey Norman will operate the same way but will be interesting to see.

Sure I wont be buying one but i'm sure there will be people out there that will.

The Harvey Norman announcement represents accessibility to the public and that is the key. The stock has had a good rise today but will need a good update on sales to keep it there. Brendan talked about getting cash flow positive this year and that is what will really push up this stock.

Haven't done the maths on how many they will need to sell to overcome cash burn and the production cost but will be one to look at in the next quarterly announcement.
 
I was surprised to see the announcement today re Harvey Norman to sell the Bluegen units initially in NSW and ACT. Good that it is as a non exclusive distributor, allowing other retailers to arrange sales agreements with CFCL too.

Go Harvey Go.
 
I rang NECO to have a chat about the units. They are for lease, not for sale.
The lease is $45,000 for the first 2 years, then $8,000 per year.

The fuel stack will be replaced after the second year, then the fifth year, then the tenth year.
The lease cost includes installation, maintenance and the fuel stack replacements.

Given that the cost of the gas will be about $1545 for a full years operation, at current residential rates, and produce a maximum of 17,520 kwh of electricity, these units will produce electricity at a cost of $1.37 per kwh in each of the first 2 years, then at 54 cents per kwh after that.

Those are insane prices. Any organization that purchases at these prices is clearly throwing money away.

The company has $16m in cash at the end of March quarter, and a burn rate of $6m for the quarter. They need to lease out enough of these units in the next 6 months to stay in business, a number that would be over 130 per quarter. From October 09 to April 10, a period of 7 months, they had orders for 17 units. By the 13th of July, the company had "secured orders for just under 50 BlueGen".
When you add in Vicurbans 30, to the prior 17, means the company does not have many other sales since April (if any).

I cannot see where a huge increase in orders would come from at these high lease rates.
I can only assume from the numbers that the company will have to either go back to shareholders for more cash, or sell the part of the technology with-in the next few months, if they wish to stay in business.

brty
 
Thanks for the info brty.
I suspect that there is a lot more to this, perhaps the numbers are those derived from the Vic govt installs where the govt is paying a premium to Neco for their early involvement in the early commercial development and consequently high level of support. The govt would be prepared to pay for this as it would be seeking a good commercial green option for the future. And good on them for giving it a go!
Any other business would need to understand the terms (and reasoning for the price). What business driver they would need to consider? Get their name marketed as being involved with the 'technology', who knows.

Brty, any reasons for the quick replacement of stacks after the first two years? I am guessing it would be for analysis / research of the performance of the cells.

Need to also consider that CFCL main market is outside Aus, and not restricted to selling just Bluegens for cost recovery. Even so appreciate your comment on the cash burn rate.

Be interested to see what the Harvey Norman model will eventually be, by comparison.

While the costs are prohibitively high, I can understand that they would need to be, initially. I am however excited that there are some commercial commitments being made, but I would like some better explanation from those involved, as quoting these numbers without an explanation, is not good marketing and leaves us all guessing.

Need to keep in mind that CFCLs main market is outside Aus, and is not resticted to selling Bluegens for cost recovery. Even so appreciate your comment on the cash burn rate.
 
All and Any of Dollar numbers quoted around here are pure fiction and guesstimates at best.
I mean, how can you flatly leave out the feed in tariff.?

Nor do they matter, once a utility like Origin, gets involved, they are already by the way running the Bluegen at Aurora.
Origin have a ton of cash and own the gas and supply electricity.
You call that vertical integration, or a cash cow.
Origin will get a good deal when they go to Gerry Harvey or CFCL.

All you can say, if you want to, is that we dont know, and on that basis it's a risk to buy CFU.
If you dont believe the story, dont buy the shares.
 
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