CFU - Ceramic Fuel Cells

[Smurf1976]

Power utilities, however, have a business model that means less energy consumption equals less profit. That will have to change, and may need to do so quickly.

There was an attempt nearly 17 years ago in Tasmania to fundamentally change the electricity industry business model so as to remove the industry's incentive to maximise sales in order to maximise profit. This was done simply by separating out costs and charging consumers accordingly, such that each additional kWh sold no longer recovered disproportionate revenue (ie profit) for the industry.

Bottom line was an uproar and it became a significant election issue that was universally opposed by just about everyone. Labor hated it, Greens hated it even more.

And so the industry reluctantly accepted a rather big slap in the face and adopted a more publicly acceptable strategy. Just sell as much electricity as possible to anyone who will buy it, encouraging them via an incredibly blatant marketing campaign "use our energy". Much easier that way, and still quite profitable.

It's not just the industry that doesn't like change. The public and politicians don't like it either. The other states were certainly known to be watching at the time, but never did actually try the same experiment. Worth noting though that the public doesn't seem too impressed with the lesser reforms, interval metering, that some states are pressing ahead with.

I hear lots of talk, lots of people saying the industry should do all sorts of things but that support has a habit of disappearing the moment the industry actually tries to do what people supposedly want.

I wonder how many people realise that the very concept of a feed-in tariff requires by its very nature that the vast majority of consumers do not install such a device? And I wonder how many people realise that if we did put a fuel cell unit in every home and shift to renewables generally then in order to make it work we'll also be building more dams, primarily in NSW? Lots of things people haven't really thought about when it comes to energy...

I'm not against it, under the right circumstances I'd actually buy a fuel cell unit. But there's a lot of issues that most haven't thought about when it comes to fuel cells and distributed (or any non-hydro non-biomass renewable) generation.

 

[mark_au]

Given the 14% electricity price rise just around the corner thanks to the brilliance that is privatisation Id be happy to put one in. I am lucky to have mains gas and could replace my electricity and aging gas hot water system in one hit and possibly still make a profit by selling excess capacity back. Much more attractive than solar PV in the short to mid term.

cheers

 

[frankblack]

There was an attempt nearly 17 years ago in Tasmania to fundamentally change the electricity industry business model so as to remove the industry's incentive to maximise sales in order to maximise profit. This was done simply by separating out costs and charging consumers accordingly, such that each additional kWh sold no longer recovered disproportionate revenue (ie profit) for the industry.

Bottom line was an uproar and it became a significant election issue that was universally opposed by just about everyone. Labor hated it, Greens hated it even more.

And so the industry reluctantly accepted a rather big slap in the face and adopted a more publicly acceptable strategy. Just sell as much electricity as possible to anyone who will buy it, encouraging them via an incredibly blatant marketing campaign "use our energy". Much easier that way, and still quite profitable.

It's not just the industry that doesn't like change. The public and politicians don't like it either. The other states were certainly known to be watching at the time, but never did actually try the same experiment. Worth noting though that the public doesn't seem too impressed with the lesser reforms, interval metering, that some states are pressing ahead with.

I hear lots of talk, lots of people saying the industry should do all sorts of things but that support has a habit of disappearing the moment the industry actually tries to do what people supposedly want.

I wonder how many people realise that the very concept of a feed-in tariff requires by its very nature that the vast majority of consumers do not install such a device? And I wonder how many people realise that if we did put a fuel cell unit in every home and shift to renewables generally then in order to make it work we'll also be building more dams, primarily in NSW? Lots of things people haven't really thought about when it comes to energy...

I'm not against it, under the right circumstances I'd actually buy a fuel cell unit. But there's a lot of issues that most haven't thought about when it comes to fuel cells and distributed (or any non-hydro non-biomass renewable) generation.

For all your skepticism, i am not sure what point you are making, yes it is your opinion based on what happened in the past , the rest is speculation.
Eventually something will be done about the amount of co2 coming from power stations today, this is just fact.
what will be done maybe determined by the market or government, but change is inevitable. i am sure lots of people have and are thinking of all the issues, as i am sure mistakes will be made, that is the way of the world.
And for those who missed reading this http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/en...gy/transcripts/27_7_09_Ceramic Fuel Cells.pdf , i found it interesting anyway.

 

[JonathonF]

re 'frankblack': Awesome contribution with the link to the transcript; Has really cleared up a few ambiguities I had with the product
Just a further question on it; I am quite confused about the feed-in tariff. Is B. Dow asking the Govt. to impose a tax on utilities in Australia when they utilise what the fuel cell puts back into the grid? Or have I completely misunderstood what was said??

 

[frankblack]

re 'frankblack': Awesome contribution with the link to the transcript; Has really cleared up a few ambiguities I had with the product
Just a further question on it; I am quite confused about the feed-in tariff. Is B. Dow asking the Govt. to impose a tax on utilities in Australia when they utilise what the fuel cell puts back into the grid? Or have I completely misunderstood what was said??

No tax. very simple 1 for 1, meaning if it costs 20cents to buy a watt of electricity from the provider, when i make excess electricity with the bluegen, fed into the grid i get my 20cents for a watt from the provider , or whatever the price is. could be a different price in every town. thats fair. after all you have to pay for the gas going in to make power. 1 for 1 is less than what the power companies are forced to give people with solar panels they didnt even pay for!

 

[Smurf1976]

For all your skepticism, i am not sure what point you are making, yes it is your opinion based on what happened in the past , the rest is speculation.
Eventually something will be done about the amount of co2 coming from power stations today, this is just fact.
what will be done maybe determined by the market or government, but change is inevitable. i am sure lots of people have and are thinking of all the issues, as i am sure mistakes will be made, that is the way of the world.

Do your own math using whatever cost for the equipment you deem fit.

A 2kW unit is going to produce 17520 kWh of electricity per annum if run at constant 100% output.

Conventional large scale generation can produce this power for about $700 per year.

Large scale renewable generation can supply this power at about $1500 per year.

Now, do you think this really stacks up financially? Or does it only work due to various subsidies? Subsidies tend not to remain in place forever, especially not if something actually becomes popular (witness the abrupt disappearance of the solar grants as soon as a large number of applications began to be received).

I'm not against the concept, but there's a lot of barriers in terms of it being an actual replacement for large scale conventional power generation. I don't doubt that there is a viable market for this device, I'm very confident that there is, but I don't expect to see too many in residential use anytime soon.

Commercial applications with a need for heat are an entirely different story and potentially very profitable...

 

[brty]

I know a lot of people here are really keen on this, but from a consumers perspective it does not do a lot for me.

$20-25k according to Dow for the initial units The cost of money alone to buy one is ~$1400-$1750 pa before you add installation costs and maintenance and depreciation over the 15 year lifespan. Plus there is then the $3.62 for gas per day (worked out at current prices from gas supplier).

Costs left out include the water connection and use plus the electricity use of the unit.

This easily works out at over $4,000 pa before 'extras' are added (maintenance, breakdowns etc).
Allowing $1500 for the 'exported' power to the grid assuming 50% of generated, leaves one with 8760 kwh of power for the price of $2500 with a bit of heat left over for a hot water service (that if you already have something like solar is not really usefull).

Where does this benifit consumers without subsidy??

brty

 

[newbie trader]

brty,

Was recommended that I take a look at this stock the other day it seems a few people are very keen on it as you say. Anyway this was my first port of call to take a quick look (havn't had much time). From what I know they have proposed a rebate equivalent to the current domestic rate charged to customers for consumption from the grid at the given time, and not at a higher which applies to solar. It may be possible that they get a higher rebate? I'm not sure. But with all this talk of rising electricity costs one would think that maybe these would become quite appealing in the future. I don't pay any bills of that sort so it is of no concern to me anyway.

What kind of subsidy/rebate do you think would be needed for this to be seen as a viable option.

 

[frankblack]

Do your own math using whatever cost for the equipment you deem fit.

A 2kW unit is going to produce 17520 kWh of electricity per annum if run at constant 100% output.

Conventional large scale generation can produce this power for about $700 per year.

Large scale renewable generation can supply this power at about $1500 per year.

Now, do you think this really stacks up financially? Or does it only work due to various subsidies? Subsidies tend not to remain in place forever, especially not if something actually becomes popular (witness the abrupt disappearance of the solar grants as soon as a large number of applications began to be received).

I'm not against the concept, but there's a lot of barriers in terms of it being an actual replacement for large scale conventional power generation. I don't doubt that there is a viable market for this device, I'm very confident that there is, but I don't expect to see too many in residential use anytime soon.

Commercial applications with a need for heat are an entirely different story and potentially very profitable...

And thats my point, you cant assume to do any accurate math on this until,
1. we know what the price of carbon is/will be long term, as the price is adjusted up.
2. when power companies pay a fair price for the excess, what that price is.

Given a fair and level playing field, once the math is/can be done, Ceramic Fuels Cells will be able to beat all and any opposition from power generation options available today. WITH NO NEED OF SUBSIDIES

do not ignore the huge costs of infrastructure/investment, dont ignore the cost of transmission loss.

when its comes to CFU its not about replacing all large scale production, maybe 10% or less, not only that at some stage they will not be able to keep up with all the demand from around the world. Europe will get serviced first.

Please go back and read this from CFCL, its has heaps of facts and figures (maths), unless you believe its all lies you cant ignore it,
http://www.cfcl.com.au/Assets/Files/20090522_CFCL_BlueGen_Launch_22May09.pdf

DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE NOTHING WILL BE DONE ABOUT THE AMMOUNT OF CO2 COMING FROM POWER STATIONS TODAY??????????

 

[roland]

As mentioned, the Australian market is certainly not the major focus. Don't forget the Mitsui partnership which highlights the potential of just one market:

Since 2003 Osaka Gas has sold more than 56,000 co-generation products to residential customers. These products use internal combustion technology to generate up to 1 kilowatt of electricity with an electrical efficiency of 22.5 percent. In mid 2009 Osaka Gas began marketing a co-generation product based on PEM fuel cell technology, which can generate up to 0.75 kilowatts at an electrical efficiency of up to 35 percent.
Ceramic Fuel Cells’ BlueGen product can generate up to 2 kilowatts of electricity with a peak electrical efficiency of up to 60 percent.

 

[mr. jeff]

to bring the tone of the conversation down a bit, CFU sp is trading at a very good price at the moment - as soon as they announce full scale production and the first utility sales contracts, it's got to be off to the races?

I do agree that there is a limited lifespan on (especially VIC) coal generation (especially brown coal) but the great thing in a disgusting way is that because we have among the dirtiest coal generating plants in the world - and the political system chained to it short term, the CFU units will be so eeeassssy to market!

as a post script, I am dismayed that we do stick with this brown coal...

 

[brty]

newbie,

What kind of subsidy/rebate do you think would be needed for this to be seen as a viable option.

Probably something like the solar rebate upfront but higher, ie $15000 plus. The reason being that the initial cost of the units at $20-25k will by itself kill the thing.

By spending that type of money you can get a very good solar system that does not have ongoing costs, does not need gas.

What most are overlooking is that as the price of electricity rises so will the price of gas, the main input of the unit.

So we have cost of money being high, (interest on $20-25k) depreciation, (life of 15 years) high and rising inputs (gas).

From a green perspective this is not as good as solar panels, (still uses ghg) and has maintenance.

brty

 

[mr. jeff]

there has been talk of CFU selling units to utility companies and then the company absorbing the upfront cost and in effect owning the unit that they install and thus controlling rates on electricity fed back into grid etc. Origin for example may like that setup. Sounds pretty conflicting though.

 

[frankblack]

newbie,



Probably something like the solar rebate upfront but higher, ie $15000 plus. The reason being that the initial cost of the units at $20-25k will by itself kill the thing.

By spending that type of money you can get a very good solar system that does not have ongoing costs, does not need gas.

What most are overlooking is that as the price of electricity rises so will the price of gas, the main input of the unit.

So we have cost of money being high, (interest on $20-25k) depreciation, (life of 15 years) high and rising inputs (gas).

From a green perspective this is not as good as solar panels, (still uses ghg) and has maintenance.

brty

Yes, you may be correct as of today, but all that is about to change, when CFCL go into mass product the estimated cost is only $8000.
Making your calculations and any need for subsidies redundant.

Not only will it be easy to market in Victoria, Brumby can not believe his luck,
he can deal with supply shortages, the co2 pollution problems, the greens, the coal miners and power generators, create jobs for ordinary working families, all in one fell swoop, all at no cost to the government, keep everyone happy.

 

[Dono]

Found this while scanning the web, very good information on the fuel cell industry, couple of months old now:

http://www.itm-power.com/cmsFiles/investors/Tradition_FuelCellReport_Apr2010.pdf

 

[aussie_guy00000]

I don't suppose anybody heard anything about these guys lately , there was a decent sell off today that drove their share price to a new low point of $0.15

 

[Smurf1976]

as a post script, I am dismayed that we do stick with this brown coal...

The reason is simply that the only alternatives available at the time of building those plants were:

Nuclear (which is more expensive than brown coal)

Imported fossil fuel (eg black coal from NSW / Qld)

Everything else that is actually available in Vic either lacks sufficient scale (eg hydro), is intermittent (eg wind) or only a short term solution that will run out well before the brown coal power stations wear out (eg gas).

 

[Coal Face]

The CSIRO research is s good report on BG CO2 but no way does it suggest CFU is anything like a stock to buy. It is still a sell IMO until fund raising is complete. Only 6 weeks to the next Quarterly report, which will show the cash is now very low and funding can be determined by the burn rate at that time. I still say 5p but could easily be 2p if CFU do not get funding in place before they run down to the point of high risk of failure. Not my problem, get the cash in place I say, then investors can buy the stock in confidence that the company will not go bust in November 2010 when cash will be all gone.

Comparing a BG to 2kW of solar is a bit naff really, especially when they do not compare the cost per Kw or offer any power storage option for the solar.

I just checked out the cost of Solar in Victoria and I can get 18kW to20kW for the price of a BG(this is at the standard A$2,499 per 1.5kW not the postcode 3 offer of A$1,899). Just imagine how much power I could sell back to the grid with that lot. Alternatively I could get 10kW and a power storage solution, this way my CO2 saying would be equal to or higher than a BG and I would have a lot of spare power to sell to the grid, with no need at all to draw any power from the grid.

Note the Solar is also gauranteed for 25 years. Compare that to a BG that will last 15 years and need a new stack every 5 years. Solar will pay back in less time and will keep paying back for far longer with zero maintenance and zero replacement parts, guaranteed

It took me seconds to find the prices below, so therefore anyone else who lives there could easily do the same, in fact they probably have these offers dropping through the letterbox or salesmen canvassing all the time, whereas CFU are 99.99% an unknown to them.


Solar PV Offers in VIC
Fully installed 1.5kW solar PV system from $2,499
If you live in Victoria and sign up for one of Nu Energy’s solar power systems now, you could be in line for stunning savings.

Thanks to the state’s generous Feed-In Tariff scheme (FIT), not only will your system help reduce your annual electricity bill, you could be paid for every additional kilowatt hour of renewable energy generated that you don’t use and send back to the grid.

Sign up now and a 1.5kW fully installed system using high quality solar panels and inverters could be yours for only $2,499

If you live within a Solar Zone 3 postcode (click on this link to find out if your postcode is eligible) you could sign up for a 1.5kW fully installed system using high quality solar panels and inverters for as little as $1,899

Panels:
Accredited for use in Australia
With a 25 year power output warranty2
High conversion efficiency
And excellent low light performance

Inverters:
Installed in a weatherproof box
With a 5 to 10 year manufacturer’s warranty2
Fully accredited for use in Australia
An LCD display

http://www.nuenergy.com.au/for_your_home/special_offers/vic/detail/solar_pv_victoria/solar_pv

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

I just checked out the cost of Solar in Victoria and I can get 18kW to20kW for the price of a BG(this is at the standard A$2,499 per 1.5kW not the postcode 3 offer of A$1,899).

The $2499 figure is the discounted price IF you live in the 3XXX postcode listed on the site. When you consider where the 3XXX postcodes are - they're all in the NW and NCentral of the State and isn't applicable for most people. The 1.5kW system is probably a "special" price and anything bigger will come at a premium. Typical costs for a 1.6kW or 2.0kW system (from Origin) are around $6000-$7500 (after REC discounts).

I also suspect that some of the 3XXX postcodes for which these discounts apply, don't have access to Natural Gas (possibly LPG only). These discounted prices also rely on a REC price of $42.

If you read the Choice review (independent reviewer): "... The standard one kilowatt solar panel system including installation costs around $10,000, before the solar credit rebates."
http://www.choice.com.au/Reviews-an...olar/Solar-panels-counting-the-cost/Page.aspx

Thanks to the state’s generous Feed-In Tariff scheme (FIT), not only will your system help reduce your annual electricity bill, you could be paid for every additional kilowatt hour of renewable energy generated that you don’t use and send back to the grid.

Victoria still uses the NET tariff rather than the GROSS tariff like NSW/ACT. Lets say you produce 7kWh (on a good sunny day) with a 1.5kW system. But the average single-person household uses around 9kWh per day (you'll be surprised how much a kettle and toaster uses).

On a GROSS tariff, you would be paid $0.60 * 7 = $4.20 and pay $0.22 * 9 = $1.92. Total profit: $2.28 per day.

On a NET tariff, you would have to pay 2 * $0.22 = $0.44 to the power company. You're running at a loss and will need a much bigger system.

One consideration: there are typically two types of panels - Thin Film and Crystalline. Thin Film is a continuous dark panel while crystalline looks like hexagon-circles under the glass. If shading occurs (due to a tree) on even 10% of the panel, big differences occur. Thin Film generates 90% for that panel. Crystalline fails open-circuit (0% production for that panel).

 

[Boyou]

The reason for Coal Face's comparison of Solar versus Fuel Cells becomes quite transparent when you view it in the context of his primary goal..

Have a look at his/her other posts.All concerning Linc Energy. C F is quite a devotee of them.

CFU is a real threat to base load power stations..solar is not

Clear enough??