CCP - Credit Corp Group

[galumay]

Why is a near 1b company responding to this?

I dont think they had any choice but to respod to it, if as it looks its a anonymous vendetta of some kind, it would still have a material effect on share price once it was in the public arena, CCP are obliged to respond. If it were actual research and the content was factual, they would still be obliged to respond.

I cant imagine a scenario in which they could just ignore it.

Personally I dont think the Wallet Wizard business is a problem - but thats just based on my knowledge of the extent CCP went to get clarity on this with the regulators. They genuinley believe they have been given the all clear on the stucture of this part of their business.

It will be interesting to see what is exposed about the motivation of these anonymous 'activists'

 

[JTLP]

I dont think they had any choice but to respod to it, if as it looks its a anonymous vendetta of some kind, it would still have a material effect on share price once it was in the public arena, CCP are obliged to respond. If it were actual research and the content was factual, they would still be obliged to respond.

I cant imagine a scenario in which they could just ignore it.

Personally I dont think the Wallet Wizard business is a problem - but thats just based on my knowledge of the extent CCP went to get clarity on this with the regulators. They genuinley believe they have been given the all clear on the stucture of this part of their business.

It will be interesting to see what is exposed about the motivation of these anonymous 'activists'

I’m not so sure to be honest. Imagine how many times people have hashed together a “BHP did this” or “CBA did that” report / website; it’d happen more often than not.

I hold CCP (have done for a long time) but I think there may be a little more to it then is what’s been led on.

 

[galumay]

Imagine how many times people have hashed together a “BHP did this” or “CBA did that” report / website; it’d happen more often than not.

Maybe, I cant remember seeing a hatchet job like this done on BHP or CBA though, especially from a non existent research company! 37 pages, a target price of $10 down from nearly $20, calls for banks to withdraw support, some pretty wild speculation - thats new ground to me.

As I say, the most interesting aspect may be if the motivations for such devious effort is uncovered.

 

[galumay]

Reading further the two things that stand out for me that suggest this is the work of a slightly deranged and obviously malicious party are the call for WBC to withdraw their support - thats not a normal part of analysis, and the crazy DCF calculation which seems calculated "on the basis of the company being wound up (effectively) over 6 years and making no new loans nor purchasing any more ledgers?"
(thanks to @Saintly96 on twitter for picking that anomaly up.)

 

[JTLP]

Reading further the two things that stand out for me that suggest this is the work of a slightly deranged and obviously malicious party are the call for WBC to withdraw their support - thats not a normal part of analysis, and the crazy DCF calculation which seems calculated "on the basis of the company being wound up (effectively) over 6 years and making no new loans nor purchasing any more ledgers?"
(thanks to @Saintly96 on twitter for picking that anomaly up.)

I’m playing devils advocate here. You need to sometimes to back your investment judgement =)

 

[galumay]

I appreciate it @JTLP, its easy to not critically think about businesses you are invested in.

For me the downside is not great here, most of the 'report' is obvious nonsense, but even if there were some ramifications for CCP its hard to see them being more than fairly short term. I have held since $9 odd and sold quite a lot along the way so a short to medium term drop in price wouldnt concern me too much. CCP have been particularly good at under promising and over delivering over a long time frame.

Even if this reports thesis was 100% accurate, his target price is $10 - so I would still be in profit on my remaining holdings in the business.

My interest is much more in what motivated the aggrieved party to go to so much effort to discredit a very large and successful business! Thats a serious obsession.

 

[Faramir]

@omac I did read the report again. Highly emotive and its shorting agenda just simply stands out. I actually think the report is deformatory. Sorry that I can't add more as others have already commented. I actually think the management will shoot this down in flames. Can't see how anyone would believe this dribble.

 

[Faramir]

I just thought of something so simple: think of the top 20 or so holders, think of all of the research that goes into a mid-cap. If a tiny bit of this report is true, wouldn’t someone raise these issues quietly first. Wouldn’t this be addressed over a period of time and some holders withdrawing slowly.

Issuing a slam dunk report so that their short positions can benefit deserves the full wrath of lawyers chasing those author/s.

I know there are many cases where black swan events can knock down the share price but a “report” like this doesn’t deserve any attention.

 

[Faramir]

Response came out half an hour ago.

This response is much easier to read than that b#}{##}{ report. Trouble is: perception of the general masses, not of those who thoroughly read both “report” and response. Not of those who follow CCP but the impatient and reactive punters. The report had already achieved its aims unfortunately: put CCP into the spotlight poorly. Even though I congratulate CCP for such an excellent response, the ‘punting public’ would of read the first page of the report with the sheep/wolf picture and a caption $10 target and no more. Made up their minds and not give this response a chance.

Someone in CCP should find the author and sue for defamation. Imagine if every decent stock was attacked like this and all of the bad ones were left alone.

Short term voting machine in action today. This is not a black swan event. This is a defamatory report. Every other person puts their name on any buy or sell recommendations. Why remain anonymous? You, the author, have achieved your aims, you seriously a deserve punch in your face or at least deserve to be sued. If we shut down this type of lending in this industry sector - just tell desparate people to borrow money from the mafia instead. You singled out CCP but you means as well say they are all just as bad as each other. No, just single out CCP so that your shorts can profit. Real numbers will burn your shorts soon.

That response included a profit upgrade.

 

[galumay]

CCP response out, pretty clear there is no basis for any of the claims in the anonymous and defamatory 'report'. A great opportunity to add to my position at a healthy discount due to the investors who decided to sell.

Will be interesting to see if anything can be proved, potentially the writers of the nonsense have made a significant windfall from very illegal action. They will need to have covered their tracks very carefully.

 

[galumay]

the ‘punting public’ would of read the first page of the report with the sheep/wolf picture and a caption $10 target and no more. Made up their minds and not give this response a chance.

To be fair Faramir, there will be a range of reasons for selling today, given the strong rise in CCP over the last few years, many selling today would still be banking a huge profit, and they may simply have decided the risk associated with the business model was not worth continuing to hold. Others will for the view that there is still a possibility of more bad press and its better to book a profit now rather than have the SP fall further later.

I am sure there are also some like you describe who simply panicked and sold without any real understanding - and they probably buy with the same mindset!

 

[luutzu]

To be fair Faramir, there will be a range of reasons for selling today, given the strong rise in CCP over the last few years, many selling today would still be banking a huge profit, and they may simply have decided the risk associated with the business model was not worth continuing to hold. Others will for the view that there is still a possibility of more bad press and its better to book a profit now rather than have the SP fall further later.

I am sure there are also some like you describe who simply panicked and sold without any real understanding - and they probably buy with the same mindset!

Maybe they sold off because they read CCP's report saying it is "ethical", honest.

Not a "pay day lender" at all your honour. We're just competing against payday lenders. And our loan repayment cycle just happen to coincide with their pay.

And our rates are nowhere near those blood suckers'... why it's only 12.99%p.a (excludes other fees and other charges)

See, we could make a lot more money, just we're nice and ethical so it's a measly 13%.

 

[notting]

Maybe they sold off because they read CCP's report saying it is "ethical", honest.
View attachment 87920

I don't think the ethics is the focus. Most people are in business to make money hence it's the numbers which are all in place.
A rather spectacular way to test the weekly $16 support however.
Unfortunately I wasn't paying attention and would have loved to get some at that 14 ish coiled spring!
Anonymous slurs are usually great buying opportunities. So called credible news outlets that peddle them however should be held to account!

 

[Value Hunter]

The report which was obviously from a short seller lacked credibility. It referred to a few twitter posts made by customers/nobodies! Also it made far too many assumptions without actually proving anything. I've never heard of an anonymous short seller report that was credible. Short sellers that are actually good at what they do (e.g. Glaucus, Jim Chanos, etc) actually put their name to the reports and stand by them. There is a reason why the report was anonymous.

 

[Knobby22]

Hoping to buy some cheap shares today. Not to be.

 

[JTLP]

Another solid result by these guys. Fell sharply now doing well, up 6%. Good divvie maintained too.

 

[galumay]

Good result and as usual a conservative outlook. Wont be surprised to see CCP hit $25 later this year. I wll update my IV calculations tonite and see what my range of value is going forward.

 

[galumay]

Just crunched the numbers, its not an easy business to value IMO, but my mid range of valuation is around $22-24, so I am comfortable continuing to hold.

 

[Value Hunter]

The share price today fell 9.2% to close at $18.85 on seemingly no news when the All ordinaries was up today. Rather curious.

 

[peter2]

When informed about the possible inquiry into "debt vultures". After noting the price drop on APT I checked Z1P, then CCP.