Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CCL - Coca-Cola Amatil

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The beauty of the stock market unlike other asset like housing is you don't have to do any thing when you

don't like the price, many other opportunities pop up to deploy your cash all the time...its not like if you miss one it gone forever.....there are opportunities in bull and bear market so you really NEVER miss out on anything ....

just wait until the price is right and with the stock market there is always something available for the price you want to pay :)
 
So CCL will be re-entering the brewing/alcohol market in December. Any thoughts on what effect this will have on SP, etc. I see they have appointed a new director.
 
Not sure it will have a massive impact. It will take time for new brands to make a meaningful impact on this monster's earnings. The key headwind for this stock is, and will remain, their ongoing battle on margins with the supermarket majors.
 
coolcup said:
Agree. This is the massive longer term demographic underpinning for the CCL stock price.
Click to expand...

I've briefly looked at CCL as a possible acquisition. I understand that CCL has been building its Indonesian operations for some time. Without the benefit of looking at the split between revenue from local operations and from international operations, I wonder just how much profit the Indonesian operations actually contribute to CCL's bottom line.

I'm also a bit leery of their move back into alcohol. Their acquisition of SPC Ardmona has been a bit of a disaster, and I wonder whether the alcohol move will open up another opportunity for the duopoly of WOW and WES to squeeze CCL again.
 
Can anyone give rationale as to why they think CCL has dropped 2%? - They've released their: CCA Indonesia Investor Trip - November 2013 today if that's any reason? - It seemed pretty good to me.
 
They recently downgraded profit and today fell through the top end of a support line at 12.20 which held yesterday.
It's now sitting right on weekly entrancement of 61.8. If buyers don't come in now with volume it's looking at $10 technically.
Today was a very week day, not good but if your longer term go back to sleep.
 
DJG said:
Can anyone give rationale as to why they think CCL has dropped 2%? - They've released their: CCA Indonesia Investor Trip - November 2013 today if that's any reason? - It seemed pretty good to me.
Click to expand...

Market adjusting its price since the 5-7% down grade....

They missed their own guidance ...said flat profit this year when they announce a shock drop in profit in first half
but maintain second half will make up for it but second failed to deliver ...now likely to be down 5-7% for the year

I express my doubt when they said profit going to be flat after first half profit is down
Coles and Woolies the 2 giants want Coke to drop price, Schweppes
discounting their drink 30%-50% cheaper than Coke .... and they think they can go against that trend?

I think the market will reprice this stock down at some stage, they still got the benefit of the doubt but another down grade or two
it sure wont be trading close to this price
 
McCoy Pauley said:
I've briefly looked at CCL as a possible acquisition. I understand that CCL has been building its Indonesian operations for some time. Without the benefit of looking at the split between revenue from local operations and from international operations, I wonder just how much profit the Indonesian operations actually contribute to CCL's bottom line.

.
Click to expand...

Not much I dont think because they grow that market but it doesn't add to bottom line or Coles and Woolies squeeze their ball harder than they want to admit ... :)

it becomes a new normal I dont buy cokes until Coles and Woolies discount them 40%-50% and it happen fairly often :)
then I load up 2 cases or so that will last me a few months till the next discount else I go Pepsi
 
Ah yes, I knew about the guidance but didn't think it would effect a day or two later.
I didn't bother checking out the charts for any support areas.

Could be a decent buy fundamentally if it does sit around the $10 area. They've still got plenty of Indonesia kicking into gear around the '14/15 year and not yet in full swing I believe (from the small amounts of research I've done).
 
Anyone else think this stock is a tad oversold? It's trading way below the 5 year trend line. Looks like a very tempting long term buy at the moment.
 
ROE said:
Coles and Woolies the 2 giants want Coke to drop price, Schweppes
discounting their drink 30%-50% cheaper than Coke .... and they think they can go against that trend?
Click to expand...
I would think that Coke has a significant extent of brand loyalty and thus pricing power and their market isn't just supermarkets.

Sure, there are some who will just buy whatever brand is on special this week but Coke is one of the most immediately recognised brands (of anything) just about everywhere in the world. Nobody asks for Pepsi as a mixer with alcohol, for example, it's always Coke.

There would be a limit, but the brand itself would seem to have significant value associated with it. That plus McDonald's sells Coke but not rival products and they are (I assume) a significant seller of soft drinks.

PS - I'm told that Woolworths has recently changed thier home brand soft drinks and that the new cola drink is, well, undrinkable unless you really are dying of thirst. I generally not a drinker of such things but was persuaded to try a glass of this stuff after a friend was complaining. Took one sip and spat it out - dreadful stuff. And that's from someone who can't normally tell the difference between major brands of soft drinks. Woolies seem to have lost the plot with this one so presumably that will drive at least some customers back to the major brands be it Coke, Pepsi or whatever.
 
I'm hoping to get in with a long term buy shortly. Might suss out if it drops any further since I think there is one more support level it is around (by memory) and below that is somewhat of a technical free-fall (not so bad for fundies).

Remember CCL's not so positive SPC business will also soon prosper from Woolies using 100% SPC fruit for their home brand products.

The Indonesian expansion is looking positive with lots of developments to come on board in '14, '15 (and I believe one or two buildings in 2016).

As mentioned above, I still don't know of any alcohol that you can buy mixed with Pepsi (unless you do it yourself).
I highly doubt Pepsi will be able to continue the discounting for a prolonged period,plus not everyone cares about saving a $1 and therefore need to drink something inferior (unless of course you like Pepsi :confused: ).
Also mentioned above, I don't know if there will ever be a day that Macca's offers Pepsi. Village Cinemas & Hoyts also offer Coca-Cola. Correct me if I'm wrong but is KFC the only seller of Pepsi?

It's beer division hasn't even kicked into business yet so that's still ahead in coming years.

I think it's been largely sold down due to a missed profit guidance (plus probably another variable or two). Which I believe is vastly sold down and oversold.

Once my last exam is done, I'll be looking to dig into the annual report and take a decent look at it.
 
ROE said:
Market adjusting its price since the 5-7% down grade....

They missed their own guidance ...said flat profit this year when they announce a shock drop in profit in first half
but maintain second half will make up for it but second failed to deliver ...now likely to be down 5-7% for the year

I express my doubt when they said profit going to be flat after first half profit is down
Coles and Woolies the 2 giants want Coke to drop price, Schweppes
discounting their drink 30%-50% cheaper than Coke .... and they think they can go against that trend?

I think the market will reprice this stock down at some stage, they still got the benefit of the doubt but another down grade or two
it sure wont be trading close to this price
Click to expand...

The above post from early November last year. With the write down to come from SPC side of the business;

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...-cocacola-amatil/story-fni0dcne-1226814370633

A price around $10.00 or low $9.00 might be interesting as a long term investment. Probably won't fall that far however.
 
SPC Ardmona decision helping this short.
Indonesia is hardly looking like the road to riches at this point.
Stop to break even 12.20.
 

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