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CCL - Coca-Cola Amatil

The other head wind they have, and it was raised at their AGM is the push towards a national container deposit scheme.

It will happen eventually. The research is pretty clear and it results in pretty large savings for government.
 
Bought in at $12.97 today. Disappointed to see it close at $12.70, but in for the long haul.
 
Any reasons for either of you?

I'm always on the lookout for blue chip/defensive stocks that take a dive due to some (hopefully) momentary bad news/phase that will (hopefully) blow over in due course.
 
Knife Catching Mode - automatic!

Have been renewing a small order to buy at $12 for months now. Got filled this morning. 7% grossed up yield for a "defensive" growth stock will sit nicely in the SMSF. Will wait before buying more. Between $11 and $11.50 would be nice (forward looking PE around 14-15).
 

I just looked at this and saw the same thing...I guess I'll wait out what happens with the container deposit scheme.
Seems to have broken some support and probably needs to hang above the $11.50ish region in Dec 2011.

Like the CCL business but whilst it's sliding I'll bite my tongue and wait.

PS divvie isn't fully franked!
 
Dang! It use to be.

I don't think it has helped that Terry Davis (CEO) and some directors sold a swag of shares following their recent profit downgrade. I would have thought the falling A$ would have helped some of their offshore earnings leading into results.
 
action speaks louder than words ....they talk up the second half while off loading a fair chunk of their holding.
This is one plus one = 1.5 -

Watch out if second half earning is not up to expectation ... I say 60% they wont achieved the desire 2nd half earning ....
 

Good job. If I had more cash I'd load up at this level too.
 
Seems to have been two things happen in the last two months: prices at both Woolies and Coles have decreased for Coke. And secondly there seems to be more "special deals" on Coke products in both stores.

The trend of the big duopoly chipping away at Coke's margins seem to be getting worse before it gets better in my view. I would be surprised if you weren't right about them missing guidance.

I would be waiting until this got really sold-off before making any entries. I think you need to be more conservative with this one going forward than a lot of analysts were thinking until recently.

Don't get me wrong it's a good business... but everything has it's price. Still over 12 times EBIT with earnings uncertainty.
 
Dang! It use to be.

I was wrong - their report says 100% franked however my broker says 75%?

Anywhoo a lot of other contributions; something else that has to be hurting them is the SPC business. Maybe if they offloaded that it would provide a jump in the SP
 
I would be waiting until this got really sold-off before making any entries. I think you need to be more conservative with this one going forward than a lot of analysts were thinking until recently.

When you have brokers and most people said this is the stock to have and
yadida and people see a price drop and they said let load it up it will takes sometimes
for the market to re-adjust its price.

CCL to me is expensive, they price for growth, defensive, good management, fund mangers and brokers love

Last half result see their growth gone, the good management bit actually not true, they have average management but because of coke position people think they got good management..look at
Terry Davis when he was at Foster anything good happening there? ....

If they are good managers they would never bought SPC in the first place...
haven't they seen the cost of manufacturing in Australia for the last 10 years and the power of coles and woolies?

Fund managers still love them and the so called defensive.

the next 18 months will see if these still hold true, and if not quick and rapid price adjustment will follow

so at these price there is no margin of safety .....when you buy stuff without margin of safety
things tend to go wrong more often than not
 
so at these price there is no margin of safety .....when you buy stuff without margin of safety
things tend to go wrong more often than not
Completely agree with your post. Especially this part!
 

A great post that contains wisdom that many can learn a lot from...

You have a knack of summing up the picture so well in a simple and concise format.
 
Watch out if second half earning is not up to expectation ... I say 60% they wont achieved the desire 2nd half earning ....

Turns out to the be correct call. Full year guidance lowered from flat to "-4% to flat".

Literally running out of fizz. Trouble spot is definitely Australian supermarket channels, offset by growth in Indonesia.

Low of $11.76 back in June cuold be reached over the next few sessions one would think, and further support below at $11.50 is well within sight, especially if we get a few analyst downgrades tomorrow.
 
And so the re-adjustment of price begins as expected...
I still think it's expensive - $10-11 looks more reasonable to me. But it's a large cap - the price of these always seems close to "perfection" for mine (outside of utter panic, which is rare). Hard to see why people were paying 14x EBIT for this when I last posted.
 
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