CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

[MrChow]

The last time there was a recession in 1991 CBA bad debts rose to 1.5%.

CBA currently have about a $900B loan book and make about $8B in NPAT.

So their threshold for bad debts to loans maxes out at 1% before they become loss making.

If there is an elongated recession (rather than just the virus coming and going) I'd also think $40 as a fair level with a P/B of 1 and Trailing PE of 8.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CBA online investing arm, Commsec, is capturing growth during a period of extreme volatility in global sharemarkets, with 400,000 new accounts established on the platform over the last year.

CommSec Pocket, a micro investing app launched a year ago that allows customers to invest sums as low as $50 in ETFs, saw a rise in activity, with $180 million invested by 100,000 users since launching last year.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

CBA back above $80, so it is back to where it was a year ago. ... Shares put on 10% in the last week, with usual attributions
- Vaccine hopes
- Economy strengthening
- Rotation from growth to value
- CBA boss Matt Comyn said the housing market is no longer a risk to the post-COVID economy and expects property prices will rise 5 per cent next year
- Quarterly came out on 11.11; CBA is growing its lending to home buyers and business owners at twice the system average (despite quarterly profit falling 16 per cent).

 

[Cam019]

CBA looking interesting here.

Price action tightening up nicely. Volatility is all but dead. Stronger than the XAO over the prior 6 month period. Other big 3 banks looking strong too, along with the whole ASX200 banks sector (XBK) as a matter of fact.

 

[Boggo]

Expected hesitation in the "typical" area should end soon.
Another target area of around $100 if it breaks upwards from here. Just my .

(click to expand)

 

[Sharkman]

i don't know that volatility is "all but dead" yet, at least from an options POV. i started selling covered calls over this back in Nov after the initial heavy rally, the 1m ATM was going at an IV of around 20 back then. had to roll up & out a couple of times at expiry since then, but could always do so at credit due to the moderately elevated vols.

it has eased back a bit since then, the call contracts i sold last week (near mid) were at an IV of around 16, but i still don't think that's fully mean reverted just yet. from memory, in "normal" times CBA 1m ATM typically trades at around 12-13 IV. if the observed daily variance is 1%, that's sqrt(252) = 15.87 annualised, so it seems the MMs are expecting the recent RV to hold steady for the near future.

 

[Value Collector]

i don't know that volatility is "all but dead" yet, at least from an options POV. i started selling covered calls over this back in Nov after the initial heavy rally, the 1m ATM was going at an IV of around 20 back then. had to roll up & out a couple of times at expiry since then, but could always do so at credit due to the moderately elevated vols.

I have been doing the equal but opposite thing for about 10 years with CBA selling Puts, I love that the market mis-prices risk by constantly confusing it with volatility.

 

[Boggo]

Follow up from here -

CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

The last time there was a recession in 1991 CBA bad debts rose to 1.5%. CBA currently have about a $900B loan book and make about $8B in NPAT. So their threshold for bad debts to loans maxes out at 1% before they become loss making. If there is an elongated recession (rather than just the...

www.aussiestockforums.com

It's arrived in the next area of potential hesitation at Max Wave.C.

Max.C is also Typical W.3 (1.62 x W.1 or A) so where to from here.
Max W.3 is around $123.00 (2.62 of W.1).

Watch and wait I guess.

(click to expand)

 

[Gunnerguy]

Follow up from here -

CBA - Commonwealth Bank of Australia

The last time there was a recession in 1991 CBA bad debts rose to 1.5%. CBA currently have about a $900B loan book and make about $8B in NPAT. So their threshold for bad debts to loans maxes out at 1% before they become loss making. If there is an elongated recession (rather than just the...

www.aussiestockforums.com

It's arrived in the next area of potential hesitation at Max Wave.C.

Max.C is also Typical W.3 (1.62 x W.1 or A) so where to from here.
Max W.3 is around $123.00 (2.62 of W.1).

Watch and wait I guess.

(click to expand)
View attachment 124458

I’m glad I found this forum. I love the comments about the options.
As others may have read my posts with regards starting to trade in options (options forum) , CBA is one of the 3 or 4 shares on my short list to start trading options in.
Any comments, ideas or suggestions would be great.
Thanks
Gunnerguy.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and $100 a share


Not that this means anything, really

probably going to kiss it a few times, with sellers lining up.

 

[Boggo]

Follow up from previous posts.
Not very often that the close coincides precisely with a target level.

Is a continuation to the next level a possibility now that it has reached Max W.C and a Max W.3 is the next target ?

(click to expand)

 

[sptrawler]

Absolutely amazing, guess there is a bit of magic attached to CBA, as opposed to the other three.

 

[Value Collector]

Absolutely amazing, guess there is a bit of magic attached to CBA, as opposed to the other three.

CBA was at $95 back in 2015, I think it’s amazing it’s taken this long to recover, but I guess that’s what a royal commission and pandemic will do hahaha.

 

[striek]

Its finally closed above $100 a share. Nice little run up this afternoon and a good gap in the closing auction to maintain momentum.

Bought a couple 99 calls (Exp 3/6) yesterday and sold today for a tidy profit. Having regrets..

 

[Gunnerguy]

Its finally closed above $100 a share. Nice little run up this afternoon and a good gap in the closing auction to maintain momentum.

Bought a couple 99 calls (Exp 3/6) yesterday and sold today for a tidy profit. Having regrets..

I’m planning to initiate my options trading strategy in the next couple of weeks. Having spent over 4 weeks reading and learning and setting up IBKR I’m almost there. CBA is amongst my candidates to start trading options. I will be watching CBA daily from then on.
GG

 

[Gunnerguy]

Closed out my second trade yesterday.

Trade 3. 21st. June.
STO 2 contracts CBA Jul15 $102 Call. PM +$0.58, Delta 0.232. PM Recieved +$114.90. Share price was at $98.44 (-3.62% below call price) at the time of STO.

Trade 4. 1st. July. Closed the contract.
BTC 2 contract CBA Jul15 $102 Call. PM -$0.31. PM Paid -$63.10. Share price was at $98.81 at the time of BTC.

Again, I could have let it run longer but I wanted to close the loop and take my profit.

Net gain was $51.80.

Gunnerguy

 

[Gunnerguy]

Any idea what the dividend may be ?

Gunnerguy

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Any idea what the dividend may be ?

more than $2, probably well north.

Interim	1.500	100.00%	16/02/2021	30/03/2021
Final	0.980	100.00%	19/08/2020	30/09/2020
Interim	2.000	100.00%	19/02/2020	31/03/2020
Final	2.310	100.00%	14/08/2019	26/09/2019
Interim	2.000	100.00%	13/02/2019	28/03/2019
Final	2.310	100.00%	15/08/2018	28/09/2018
Interim	2.000	100.00%	14/02/2018	28/03/2018
Final	2.300	100.00%	16/08/2017	29/09/2017
Interim	1.990	100.00%	22/02/2017	04/04/2017
Final	2.220	100.00%	17/08/2016	29/09/2016
Interim	1.980	100.00%	16/02/2016	31/03/2016

 

[divs4ever]

CBA’s Gambit to Become More Than Just a Bank — Mobile Banking​

CBA's Gambit to Become More Than Just a Bank — Mobile Banking

The digital and mobile banking revolution is now threatening this status quo. The fintech innovators are aiming to kill off the big banks as we know it via a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ approach...

www.moneymorning.com.au

DYOR

my exposure to CBA is via various LICs and ETFs

 

[dyna]

Total demand for the CBA $6 Billion buy-back came in at $24 Billion, resulting in an 80% scale back. Considering the fierce scale-back , it was hardly worth the bother for an SMSF and top tax rate investors would not have received much of a premium ( 1-2 % above the S.P. ) but retirees and nil tax payers scooped up almost $ 30 on the f.f. dividend alone and no C.G. tax liability on the capital component of the return ($ 21 ).