Can China continue its astonishing growth?

Donga · 29 December 2009

Uncle Festivus said:
China will bust from 2 angles - falling consumption from it's customers, mainly the US, and the corrupted, shamble of a financial system the internal economy is based on due to the communist ideology.

So with the US system fatally flawed and the Chinese economy about to bust, sounds PRETTY BAD, but I don't buy it. Too much faith in the fundamental cycles as well as the Asian drive - and forget those silly graphs.

Good grief, smell the roses guys - the low labour rate, reasonably educated, high work ethic, resource rich economies of Asia wish to grow now and we're going along for the ride. The good people of Hollywood and the rest of the country will slowly settle into their new role of aging rager.

China will continue its astonishing growth. They will also evolve geopolitically as well as their internal reforms and processes. They can't afford a social upheaval so will probably avoid it. Hope so.

Dowdy · 29 December 2009

China can't continue this growth. It needs 8% a year, every year just to cater for the new people coming into the workforce

Most of the growth this year was due to the government stimulus. China is stocking up on copper and a few months down the track you hear that China is selling it's copper. I guess they do that to make the number on their trade account look fine.

Entire towns are being built with no one living there, i guess that's to employ construction workers but don't be surprised if they become wastelands.

Don't get me wrong. It's going to be the world's #1 super power eventually but they're doing it very inefficiently.

Wysiwyg · 1 January 2010

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) has broadened horizons with the involvement of China in the free trade agreements starting today. Interesting little neighbourhood developing there.

China and Southeast Asia establish the world's biggest free trade area (FTA) on Friday, liberalising billions of dollars in goods and investments covering a market of 1.7 billion consumers.

Eight years in the making, the ASEAN-China FTA will rival the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area in terms of value and surpass those markets in terms of population.

Officials hope it will expand Asia's trade reach while boosting intra-regional trade that has already been expanding at 20 per cent a year.

"In 2010 we are sending a strong signal that ASEAN is open," H E Sundram Pushpanathan, of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), told AFP.

China has just overtaken the United States to become ASEAN's third largest trading partner, and will leap Japan and the EU to become "number one" within the first few years of the FTA, said Pushpanathan, Deputy Secretary-General for the ASEAN Economic Community.

Under the agreement, China and the six founding ASEAN countries - Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand - are to eliminate barriers to investment and tariffs on 90 per cent of products.

condog · 1 January 2010

Without putting too many neurones to work

Re: empty apartments everywhere: Its part of poor centralized planning model, where apartments are built according to planners rather then demand....

On the second issue in relation to how long can it last......It takes a long time to modernize, industrialize and westernize 2.2Billion people...so expect it to last a decade or more from now........and as they get .....ized expect capitalists amongst them to want to be more .......ized....so give it a few more years...

Then on the back of that expect India, then Brazil to go through the same revolution followed by parts of Africa....

Wysiwyg · 1 January 2010

condog said:
Then on the back of that expect India, then Brazil to go through the same revolution followed by parts of Africa....

I have a perception of India as a bit of a dizzy mob. Like they don't seem to have the go in them. One driving factor that could get them off their rrr's is to be like their neighbours. A bit of a "keep up with the Jones' " thing.

p.s. the quotation mark after Jones' was a bit tricky.

Uncle Festivus · 1 January 2010

Dowdy said:
China can't continue this growth. It needs 8% a year, every year just to cater for the new people coming into the workforce

Most of the growth this year was due to the government stimulus. China is stocking up on copper and a few months down the track you hear that China is selling it's copper. I guess they do that to make the number on their trade account look fine.

Entire towns are being built with no one living there, i guess that's to employ construction workers but don't be surprised if they become wastelands.

Don't get me wrong. It's going to be the world's #1 super power eventually but they're doing it very inefficiently.

Another silly chart.....

The inverse correlation between supply and price has broken down - either the view is that there won't be enough to go around now that the global financial system is back to <normal> or there is going to be a commodities glut after the recovery turns out to be transitory.....

China's GDP is calculated on production, not sales.....lend stimulis to produce stuff nobody buys to produce a figure to look good.....

Please explain.....

Can China continue its astonishing growth?

Donga

Dowdy

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

condog

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

Uncle Festivus

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Can China continue its astonishing growth?

Donga

Dowdy

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

condog

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

Uncle Festivus

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