BXP - Bill Express

[It's Snake Pliskin]

After some higher volume yesterday it is up again and the trading volume is up compared to recent trading. I anticipate further rises.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I am still bullish on BXP as I see some sellers getting out without a plunging price. Rejections of $0.19c.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I am still bullish on BXP as I see some sellers getting out without a plunging price. Rejections of $0.19c.

I look like a fool now in hindsight.

 

[mmmmining]

I resisted the urge to buy BXP in the first few days after floating because I believed internet banking would kill BXP business model one day. I believe the story is still the same today.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I sold today after hitting my loss level.

 

[PALERIDER]

Hmm,

BXP cashflow is looking healthier at $23 Mill for the half year 07. Some spent on R & D (very good) and the rest spent on growing the network ( still a good use of spare cash) If this cashflow level continues for the rest of the year can we expect $46 mill cashflow / full dilution 460M shares = 10 cents cashflow per share?

Accounts payable and receivable are similar meaning it seems there is no juggling figures to artificially boost cashflow.

Non cash item of depreciation write off is still high due to all the tech equipment BXP owns.

EBITDA up 65% ( underlying profitability)

Currently earning 10% on equity which is poor (reflects all extra cash spent on growing the business) but fully expect this company to return at least 15% on equity over next one-two years with high generation of extra cash.

Surely it can snaffle a piece of the $85 Billion pie that goes through Aussie Post?

Current equity is $67.3 mill / 460 mill shares (fully diluted ) x 14 % roe = reasonable 2007 earnings of $0.02 per share x very conservative 12pe = 24 cents.

Is anybody else looking at this and what are your thoughts?

 

[YELNATS]

Hmm,
Surely it can snaffle a piece of the $85 Billion pie that goes through Aussie Post?

Doubtful if they would get more than a small slice. Newsagents are not really set-up to take in and act as custodians for large sums of cash, security-wise and logistically, and its a low commission business for them, compared to say, Lotto.

 

[PALERIDER]

Thanks Yelnats,

Never the less BXP has built most of the network which covers all the facets of retailing plus more and I think you should see cashflow go to the bottom line, along with a push in advertising and release of new products.

It seems likely they will be looking to go into transactions on mobile phones in the near future. I bought in recently for the long term.

I noticed they have ramped up their website's Investor centre and will be doing roadshows soon.

I am predicting some strong action here. Should be interesting.

 

[Glenhaven]

I looked at BXP when they floated, but reached the conclusion that the management team failed on a number of aspects. I don't know if their has been any change, but I would suggest you have a look at them and reach your own conclusion.

 

[Glenhaven]

Look back at post 8 on this tread of the article from "The Australian Financial Review Nov 04" by Pierpont, and assure yourself that changes have occurred or it is not true.

 

[mmmmining]

Internet is killing BXP's business.

 

[PALERIDER]

Thanks Glenhaven and mmmmmmingg,

I have considered all these aspects as I have been researching the payments industry since April 06.

BXP has just released some interesting results

prepaid revenues up 19% pcp
number of bills paid up 88% pcp
number of over the counter bills paid up 143% pcp
number of bills compared to previous month up 39%

Other interesting facts:
Bill payments are higher margin than prepaid
EBITDA margin increased from 3.25% to 3.7%
No more McDougals on board
Annuallised bill volume should be around $1.5 billion 2007
KPMG as auditors
Opportunity with low ROE and pe ratio.
XIP media is making loss.
BOPO shows very good promise.
Strenthened board with further appointments
Very strategic retail presence
Distribution businesses love high volumes with low margin - eg WOW, CML
Increased advertising and marketing.
Strong cashflow

Yelnats , do you know what margin TTS collects on its system - 3.5%?

I'll be sticking to my guns.

 

[Ang]

I agree it looks strong in the accounting sense, and now if it can break 23 cents she should fly. There has been the resistance and couldn't break that a few months ago. If we have a strong market tomorrow we should see the break let's all hope. Could also be a good dividend coming.
Kind reg
ang

 

[PALERIDER]

BXP looking good.

How does this look to you for June 2008

EBITDA $44M
minus Depreciation & Amortisation $15M
minus interest of $8M
minus tax of $6M
equals Net Profit $15M
Divided by full dilution 459 million shares = EPS 3.2 cents/share
times very conservative pe 12 = 3.2 x 12 = 38 cents

Reasonable share price June 2008 38 cents. (current price 18.5 cents)

Anybody else out there got some thoughts BXP

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

BXP looking good.

How does this look to you for June 2008

EBITDA $44M
minus Depreciation & Amortisation $15M
minus interest of $8M
minus tax of $6M
equals Net Profit $15M
Divided by full dilution 459 million shares = EPS 3.2 cents/share
times very conservative pe 12 = 3.2 x 12 = 38 cents

Reasonable share price June 2008 38 cents. (current price 18.5 cents)

Anybody else out there got some thoughts BXP

Thanks for the fundamental view. It is good to see how it works sometimes.
BXP has been up and down like a yo-yo so what is going to drive it?

 

[PALERIDER]

Cheers Snake Pliskin,

Drivers for higher for EBITDA June 2008 will most likely come from :

• more free cash flow to spend on advertising
• less expense for building the network
• higher bills processed
• increased takeup of the Bopo card targeting specific markets
• much lower depreciation charges next year and the ones following
• increased licensing fees
• increased profit in the media division
• EBITDA has increased significantly year on year
• has the free cash flow now for aquisitions or more organic growth

Basically they have built the network, people are increasingly using it, they have good increasing EBITDA, depreciation & CAPEX should decrease and stabilise, they spend good money on R&D, profits will show up significantly on the bottom line over the following year (in my opinion very likely)

Tis my opinion
Diclosure - I do own BXP

 

[Ang]

Looks good i have also a target of 38 cents there was an acsending triangle at one stage and i used the depth of the triangle.

Kind regards
ang01

 

[YELNATS]

What has happened to BXP? Has been in a trading halt or suspended since May 1. Notice they have some sort of dispute with Optus.

 

[vida]

Its all over with BXP. The management were obviously just no good although they had a great idea and profitability at one time yet managed to stuff it up.
The company is going into administration and the corporate graveyard. RIP

 

[YELNATS]

Its all over with BXP. The management were obviously just no good although they had a great idea and profitability at one time yet managed to stuff it up.
The company is going into administration and the corporate graveyard. RIP

Yes, they couldn't compete with the might and power of Australia Post plus the internet for customers paying bills.

I feel most sorry for the small business newsagents who shelled out in good faith and lost heavily on this sorry investment.