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Dunno about you folks, but I'm gettin' nervous.... 
Buy this dip, or get the hell out?
- Thread starter princeplanet
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Why?
I'm used to the 4000-4200 level, so this is still too pricey for me to get in.
I'm used to the 4000-4200 level, so this is still too pricey for me to get in.
Dunno about you folks, but I'm gettin' nervous....
why nervous? are you gambling thinking your luck may run out?
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Dunno about you folks, but I'm gettin' nervous....
So you should be.
Don't pick bottoms, pick trends. Never too pricey. Just not now.
Luck has nothing to do with it.
So you should be.
gg
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Um, yes, frankly. Spare me the lecture about "investing" not "gambling", unless of course you yourself have a 100% record of predicting what the market will do next. I spend too much time as it stands researching my portfolio and still manage to get fleeced the minute I'm not looking. Hence the nerves... Part of my "research" is to guage other's opinions, hopefully with more experience than myself, on forums like this. Of course, if you all just wanna be smarmy about it, what's the point of this forum for guys like me? Come to think of it, what's the point of this forum for guys like you?
.
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Actually ROE is a highly successful Value Investor.
If you read his posts you might believe an apology would not be out of place.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Agree with ROE
If your an experienced trader/investor you will have
Management in place for a prolonged change in sentiment.
I've posted a technical outlook on the XAO thread.
Personally I'm noticing fewer trades being triggered
More trades being closed
Fewer prospects emerging for the watch list.
Less time spent in trades before stops taken out
Trailing or initial.
ROE's comment isn't a lecture but an observation
One I've also seen time and time again with posters comments
On various threads. If you'd have included some reasoning
For your nervousness then you may not hav seen a comment like ROE's
The down day isn't a dip but there is one coming which in my
View will be a retracement large enough to buy.
With price then completing this prolonged move up.
In may I expect some serious change in trend.
If your an experienced trader/investor you will have
Management in place for a prolonged change in sentiment.
I've posted a technical outlook on the XAO thread.
Personally I'm noticing fewer trades being triggered
More trades being closed
Fewer prospects emerging for the watch list.
Less time spent in trades before stops taken out
Trailing or initial.
ROE's comment isn't a lecture but an observation
One I've also seen time and time again with posters comments
On various threads. If you'd have included some reasoning
For your nervousness then you may not hav seen a comment like ROE's
The down day isn't a dip but there is one coming which in my
View will be a retracement large enough to buy.
With price then completing this prolonged move up.
In may I expect some serious change in trend.
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PP,
Then perhaps you should spend more time on your methodology instead of your portfolio, in other words what ROE stated.
Then perhaps you should spend more time on your methodology instead of your portfolio, in other words what ROE stated.
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@ tech/a,
yES i AGREE !!
Year in, year out, May is THE month when the DOW slips.
I have checked the chart.
On top of that is the US "Debt Ceiling" problem, which will not go away.
As long as the US of A is the leading global economy,
their problems are our problems!
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No one knows what the market will do. Some of us don't care, and some take calculated risks based on what their methodology tells them the market may do, with appropriate risk management. If you're just sticking your thumb in the air then you're going to have a lot of sleepless nights.
No one is 100% correct, 100% of the time and being successful doesn't require anywhere near that level of accuracy. Even Buffett only gets it right 60-70% of the time.
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Thankyou to tech/a and McLovin for at least a response of a few sentences. And point taken. Reprieve today, but as has been said, surely a matter of time before a cave in? I felt like this in Dec 07 when my FA insisted I hold right through the following year. Of course, I knew less then than I do now, but my intuition was still "on the money" - so to speak......
I bought something today. Gee, I must be a real idiot. Mind you, I don't use the XAO at all for decision making. As an index it's impossible to value, unless you want to get into the dreaded territory of relative historical comparsion. For me, the XAO at 3000 or 5000 or (LOL over 9000!) does not change the underlying valuation of the stocks that I am analysing. There are thousands of individual stocks on the market, and at anyone time some of them will be doing something completely different to the XAO.
I'm a beloved favourite of the techies, a deer in the headlights, a favourite target for them when the short-term swings don't go my way, but most likely I'll be still here when they've gone away again, and nothing important has changed for the underlying long-term prospects of the businesses that I gladly hold when most others are hitting the kill switch.
I'm a beloved favourite of the techies, a deer in the headlights, a favourite target for them when the short-term swings don't go my way, but most likely I'll be still here when they've gone away again, and nothing important has changed for the underlying long-term prospects of the businesses that I gladly hold when most others are hitting the kill switch.
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Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Not all of them. Clearly a few agree with you considering the market we actually have. In fact I think a majority of the players, Techies, mum & pop, casual punters etc are out of sync with the market.... big time. We will see "this is it" threads and comments for possibly years. The slightest bit of weakness will trigger PTS about the GFC with everyone wanting another go at it to "get it right this time"/"not be caught again" kinda thing.
Yeah sorry, I should have said "some" of the them. I admit a bit of exaggeration.
Wonder how many mum & pop / casual punters will wait to get in on Tech A's predicted wave 5? Some people are really good at technical analysis (the 3% you guys like to mention) the rest should stop trying to guess the market altogether because they will either miss opportunities or get burnt buying when the new bull wave fad is "confirmed."
Um, yes, frankly. Spare me the lecture about "investing" not "gambling", unless of course you yourself have a 100% record of predicting what the market will do next. I spend too much time as it stands researching my portfolio and still manage to get fleeced the minute I'm not looking. Hence the nerves... Part of my "research" is to guage other's opinions, hopefully with more experience than myself, on forums like this. Of course, if you all just wanna be smarmy about it, what's the point of this forum for guys like me? Come to think of it, what's the point of this forum for guys like you?
.
sorry I should have been a bit more clear...
no I cant predict the stock market or price movementbut I am never nervous regardless of what is happening in the market unless I'm gambling and have absolutely no idea what going on in the business I hold.
you should not be nervous if your objective is clear and you confortable with your risk management
... this is what I do ...
I have spare cash every month, I cant spent more than I make...well I could but I decided not to...
with that surplus I go and look for reasonable business that pay dividend with sound balance sheet.
I then buy them at a price I am willing hold for many years regardless of what happening in
the market...sometimes I buy some stocks and it went down and I think the business is in great shape..
I buy some more and vice versa ...stock can go up and I still buy more.....
Until the fundamental of the business change for the worse or I think the price doesn't justify valuation I then sell
so no need to get nervous ....I trade my surplus cash for solid business that pay dividend..Right now I have no use for those dividend so I reinvest back into the market for compounding return...one day this dividend will support my retirement but until then it stays in the market....
hope that help you so you dont get nervous...
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My friend in finance always told me, once news of the trend gets into the mainstream, then you're too late.
One of the most-repeated cliches in investing (well, trading, really) is that “the trend is your friend”. Most people forget the last bit “… until it ends”.
The market is a moody place. It suffers bouts of hyper-optimism and hopeless despair, swinging wildly between the two. At other times, it seems to be going nowhere fast. For those who can't resist checking their broker's website a few times each day, it must be an incredibly draining experience, riding the peaks and troughs, worrying about what the market might do next.
The train has left the station
Investors are currently enjoying a very strong market that seemingly woke from its funk in early July, and has been unstoppable ever since. It's a good time to be part of the herd – no one likes to miss out when the going is good!
The problem is that if you're just joining the party now, you've missed out on some of the early gains. That won't stop most people, who figure they can finally be assured that the market is going in the right direction.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if you're jumping into the market now, it's a much more dangerous place than it was before. Sure, the future seemed bleak back in July – after all, the market was struggling to put on any significant gains. But that was exactly the time you should have been picking up bargains.
The S&P/ASX 200 is up more than 20 per cent since those dark days – meaning you're now paying 20 per cent more for the same businesses. The thing is, the businesses are largely unchanged (and in some cases – like the big four banks – the most recent results have simply reinforced that current prices are very richly valuing these solid, but low-growth businesses).
The time to buy shares is when the market is ignoring the company, undervaluing its growth prospects, or overreacting to some short-term problem.
Lonely and friendless
Just under 12 months ago, I suggested it was time to buy Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN). The company had experienced some tough times as consumers kept their wallets firmly snapped shut. Commentators were loudly proclaiming the end of the company as we knew it. Apparently the company was a dinosaur just waiting to be put out of its misery. In short, the market was extrapolating the recent past, rather than remembering that these things are cyclical in nature.
Harvey Norman shares went nowhere for the next 10 months. Worse, they spent part of that time under the price at which I suggested they were attractive value. That just goes to demonstrate the futility of trying to time the market. Undeterred but unpopular, I held tight to that conviction, and readers who acted on the advice have enjoyed a gain of 60 per cent in just a few months. In investing, patience pays.
There will be some investors who are seeing recent market gains as the equivalent of “come on in, the water's fine”. They may do OK from here, but the shares of many companies aren't the bargain they were. Logically, with every passing day of share price gains, the chances of market-beating returns are reduced. In some cases, those odds are reduced to become longer than my chances of being called into the Australian cricket squad (though those odds have improved in the last week!).
Hanging with the 'cool kids' is expensive
Warren Buffett described the situation perfectly when he wrote “you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus”.
Investing might be the only human endeavour in which a discounted price is less attractive than a premium price. Investors who weren't prepared to buy Harvey Norman shares at $1.74 in December are now happily paying over $2.80 for exactly the same "merchandise".
Running with the herd feels more comfortable at the time. When "everyone else is doing it", we take courage and solace from being part of a crowd. The problem is that by the time "everyone is doing it", the price has already skyrocketed. The current bank share prices demonstrate that in spades.
Foolish takeaway
Following the herd is dangerous. When it turns on a dime, and runs back the way it came, the unsuspecting investor goes from happily following along to being right in the path of the oncoming stampede, and rarely has the opportunity to get out of the way in time.
The antidote is simple – ignore the crowd. Trade "accepted Wisdom" for Foolishness (note the capitalisation).
Tune out the crowd. Buy great companies at attractive prices – no matter what the prevailing "Wisdom" might be. Then have the courage of your convictions. Easy to say, harder to do – but well worth the effort.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/motl...ure-going-to-get-trampled-20130315-2g5bf.html
One of the most-repeated cliches in investing (well, trading, really) is that “the trend is your friend”. Most people forget the last bit “… until it ends”.
The market is a moody place. It suffers bouts of hyper-optimism and hopeless despair, swinging wildly between the two. At other times, it seems to be going nowhere fast. For those who can't resist checking their broker's website a few times each day, it must be an incredibly draining experience, riding the peaks and troughs, worrying about what the market might do next.
The train has left the station
Investors are currently enjoying a very strong market that seemingly woke from its funk in early July, and has been unstoppable ever since. It's a good time to be part of the herd – no one likes to miss out when the going is good!
The problem is that if you're just joining the party now, you've missed out on some of the early gains. That won't stop most people, who figure they can finally be assured that the market is going in the right direction.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if you're jumping into the market now, it's a much more dangerous place than it was before. Sure, the future seemed bleak back in July – after all, the market was struggling to put on any significant gains. But that was exactly the time you should have been picking up bargains.
The S&P/ASX 200 is up more than 20 per cent since those dark days – meaning you're now paying 20 per cent more for the same businesses. The thing is, the businesses are largely unchanged (and in some cases – like the big four banks – the most recent results have simply reinforced that current prices are very richly valuing these solid, but low-growth businesses).
The time to buy shares is when the market is ignoring the company, undervaluing its growth prospects, or overreacting to some short-term problem.
Lonely and friendless
Just under 12 months ago, I suggested it was time to buy Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN). The company had experienced some tough times as consumers kept their wallets firmly snapped shut. Commentators were loudly proclaiming the end of the company as we knew it. Apparently the company was a dinosaur just waiting to be put out of its misery. In short, the market was extrapolating the recent past, rather than remembering that these things are cyclical in nature.
Harvey Norman shares went nowhere for the next 10 months. Worse, they spent part of that time under the price at which I suggested they were attractive value. That just goes to demonstrate the futility of trying to time the market. Undeterred but unpopular, I held tight to that conviction, and readers who acted on the advice have enjoyed a gain of 60 per cent in just a few months. In investing, patience pays.
There will be some investors who are seeing recent market gains as the equivalent of “come on in, the water's fine”. They may do OK from here, but the shares of many companies aren't the bargain they were. Logically, with every passing day of share price gains, the chances of market-beating returns are reduced. In some cases, those odds are reduced to become longer than my chances of being called into the Australian cricket squad (though those odds have improved in the last week!).
Hanging with the 'cool kids' is expensive
Warren Buffett described the situation perfectly when he wrote “you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus”.
Investing might be the only human endeavour in which a discounted price is less attractive than a premium price. Investors who weren't prepared to buy Harvey Norman shares at $1.74 in December are now happily paying over $2.80 for exactly the same "merchandise".
Running with the herd feels more comfortable at the time. When "everyone else is doing it", we take courage and solace from being part of a crowd. The problem is that by the time "everyone is doing it", the price has already skyrocketed. The current bank share prices demonstrate that in spades.
Foolish takeaway
Following the herd is dangerous. When it turns on a dime, and runs back the way it came, the unsuspecting investor goes from happily following along to being right in the path of the oncoming stampede, and rarely has the opportunity to get out of the way in time.
The antidote is simple – ignore the crowd. Trade "accepted Wisdom" for Foolishness (note the capitalisation).
Tune out the crowd. Buy great companies at attractive prices – no matter what the prevailing "Wisdom" might be. Then have the courage of your convictions. Easy to say, harder to do – but well worth the effort.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/motl...ure-going-to-get-trampled-20130315-2g5bf.html
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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- 10 June 2007
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I dont see a lot value around at the moment.
I am 70percent cash again after selling up last week. It might have been a bit early to sell but the profit was good so a time to sit on the sidelines and wait for some better value in the market. I have no idea when this will happen. It could be 6 months away who knows.
I am 70percent cash again after selling up last week. It might have been a bit early to sell but the profit was good so a time to sit on the sidelines and wait for some better value in the market. I have no idea when this will happen. It could be 6 months away who knows.
