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BUY - Bounty Oil

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Hi Profitseeker,

BUY ..... analysis was posted for the company itself.

So if you think Magnolia results will surface in January,
then it's mostly positive, but if you think that the results
will be out around 16022006, then they may be negative.

If we can get enough spud data about the well itself, it
is possible to run some analysis, using some different
astrotools, that may give some indications of success or
failure in the well .....

Very often, the well analysis and analysis for the well
operator will correlate very closely ..... note, that BUY
is NOT the operator of Magnolia.

happy days

yogi

 
Profitseeker said:
DLS just uped their stake in the company from 8% to 10%. Interesting move.
Click to expand...

They now have over 10% of the voting power is that what they want or are they interested what's in the well?? then again maybe they are greedy and want both

cheers laurie
 
Hi laurie,

DLS don't buy shares in BUY just to have the voting numbers. Just like the rest of shareholders, they want returns from their investment. This is a sign that DLS thinks there is money to gain from Magnolia; otherwise, they won't increase their holding in the company. I won't be surprised if they increase this further down the road.

Cheers!
 

etrader

So do you think they may make a take over bid for BUY!!

cheers laurie
 
Hi laurie,

I can't say that. If Magnolia turns out to be a company-maker, it won't be far-fetched for DLS to increase their holding.

A quick look at the websites of DLS and BUY lists some some interesting commonalities:
- Michael L. Hutt acts as the the Company Secretary for both BUY and DLS
- Graham C. Reveleigh is a member of the Boards of Directors of both BUY and DLS

Tom Fontaine, current ED of BUY is connected to DLS according to the former members of the BUY Board of Directors (possibly a significant shareholder, although his name is not mentioned on the DLS website).

Hoping that Magnolia is not a dud.

Cheers!
 
Profitseeker said:
magnoila has spud. Cross your fingers!!!
Click to expand...

Ok can u please explain what happens next I thought "Spud" was it!! once that happens black gold y/n?

cheers laurie
 
Good luck to those that hold all companies in the Magnolia drill. 23 days on a trouble free basis is between you and a potential a stack of money.

BUY (10.4%) and NWE (19.6%) haven't been bought up much in the lead up to this drill. Taking a stab, a dry hole will see NWE fall to 10-12cps from a current price of 17cps with potential value to them of inexcess of 100cps.

The drill is in ~100m of water in the Timor Sea so its not without very serious risks that the drill will fail - ignoring the fact that there may not even be commercial quantities of oil there.

For the rest of us, I'm sure if there is announcement of success we will have plenty of time to jump in provided we want to pay the premium to do so. Announcements on this drill scheduled every Tuesday. Watch this space.
 
Profitseeker

Arhhh now understand thanks

doctorj

I assume if they do strike oil they would require a trading halt!!

cheers laurie
 
Profitseeker said:
They would require a trading halt for sure and one if they don't strike oil! No way out now.
Click to expand...

LOL yeh very true Profitseeker,keep forgetting trading halts are for bad news also

cheers laurie
 
i am going to watch the share price closely just to see if there are any early indications from insider trading. Shout if you see one!
 
Profitseeker said:
i am going to watch the share price closely just to see if there are any early indications from insider trading. Shout if you see one!
Click to expand...

All I need to know is what the directors doing.....selling I'm out :swear:
buying I'm in for more... of course the smart person will be taking a gamble now

cheers laurie
 
Directors won't be buying when they know the results before the market unless they want to be strung up. It will be their "friends" and the "friends of the "friends"
 
Profitseeker said:
Directors won't be buying when they know the results before the market unless they want to be strung up. It will be their "friends" and the "friends of the "friends"
Click to expand...

Ok so I assume that leaves trade volume figures?

cheers laurie
 
Your correct, voume can be a leading indicator of price movement in this situations. There's also nothing better for watching the screen to see parcels go through in real time. If you're familiar with the behaviour of a specific stock that can provide a tip off as well.

BUY gapped up on light volume today but managed to close at the high. NWE however traded down about 8% on above average volume. Not much to be learned from that so far.

What I was angling at before that when they do get results of the drill, they will announce them and it will give you the remainder of the halt to work out how much its worth to the company (I like to use prepared spreadsheets - if I'm trading it I will also have have some completed scenario analysis ahead of time so I can have a ball park figure as soon as I've read the announcement).

Lets just say Magnolia is a success and you calculate that its worth 100cps for NWE (after discounting for time and risk). It's unlikely that it will gap up by the full 100cps. Depending on your time frame and the amount it does gap up, this is can be a buying opportunity while the market takes its time to fully factor in.

Company Makers in the junior oil and gas world can be exciting to hold through. They're high risk/high return plays with the big advantage that they are comparably very fast to convert to cash flow relative to other mining operations. If the risk isn't for you, there's still plenty of money to be made in these drills by selling on spud and/or buying after success.
 
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