Bull Bear Bull!!! Bear??

[Monario]

Hi all just wondering if could could get some thoughts from you on the current state of the ASX, and the world economy.

I am finding it hard to come to grips with the last 6months of movement, and am wondering if we are yet again in dangerous teritory.

We all no how the recent economic crisis and it effects on the market, and I think we would all agree until late 2007 we were in a Bull market, even the riskiest of investments could do no wrong.

Now after such a short time, but a horrible bear market, it seems we are again in a bull market, 40-45% gain in the last 6 months. Is the writting on the wall here? are we headed for another meltdown of the ASX in the short term, or just a stablising market?

Myself, looking at the big picture around the world, feel that we maybe headed for another large fall...

I would love to hear everyones thoughts of this bullbearbull market.

Monza....

 

[TabJockey]

The pullback this week has largely been due to US figures, what these figures mean to us in Aus is debatable but locally the economy is going great guns especially compared to most of the western world. I think Equity prices have risen too fast too quickly and most people would agree there will be corrections, but my gut feeling is still bullish. If the ASX drops 500 points next week I will be buying all the way to the bottom and waiting, because there is nothing to stop Australian business from making good money in the next few years.

 

[Monario]

Thanks for the reply Tab..

Another point of concern for me is the Sky Rocketing Aus. Dollar.... Ad this is another resaon I am worried about Australian Business, this will surely hurt our export sector....

 

[drsmith]

Myself, looking at the big picture around the world, feel that we maybe headed for another large fall...

That's what I feel too but that does not exclude the possibility of the market recovering all the ground it lost before turning down again.

That's what happened during the high inflation era of the 70's and early 80's.

 

[TabJockey]

Aud effects some export markets but also creates opportunities. You just play it smart.

 

[Kalvin]

Historically, it would seem likely this pattern will continue for a long while yet: the markets were unstble for a decade after after the '29 collapse, with a ~30% pullback 6 months after the first evidence of recovery....etc etc