Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BSL - Bluescope Steel

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Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Closing in on it's all time high of 10.29. Wish I held more than I have. Possibly the ADX is indicating look out for a trend change. It might go sideways soon. But up a little longer first I suspect.
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Market didn't take the profit announcement too well though.

MIT
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Slaughtered on the day it reports the largest profit on record - 70% or so larger than last years profit, all because forecast for next year is not as good..... well the market reaction did make me sit up and notice.
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

I haven't hit my stops yet. Hopefully just an over-reaction. On my experience these things last 1-3 days and start recovering, unless the market has really gone off the company. Unfortunately I got caught both ways. I was going to buy Seven on Monday but didn't get to the market before 4:05 (Closed at 8.08). Pulled my order yesterday because I thought it would drop due to the announcement. It opened at 8:10 to close at 8:41! Some weeks it just doesn't pay to get out of bed.

MIT
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Closed back through the $10.00 barrier today after a $0.30 rise on no news. Any thoughts to why the jump in price? Also any chartists want to offer some thoughts?

I currently hold
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Dan_ said:
Closed back through the $10.00 barrier today after a $0.30 rise on no news. Any thoughts to why the jump in price? Also any chartists want to offer some thoughts?

I currently hold
Click to expand...
Dan,

The increase today seems relative to the overall increase in the market.

About two or three weeks ago, a couple of analysts suggested BSL would be fully valued at $10.00. Looks like they could be wrong (again!).


Julia
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Could be a bit of a run-up to the dividend as well.

BSL goes ex dividend tomorrow.

Rod.
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

I think you are right RodC, its a big dividend (44.0/share fully franked) for a $10 stock.

rozella
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

I Sold BSL today.

I only bought these as a dividend trade and I've managed to make 49c (gross) so I didn't think it was worth staying in for the dividend.

Rod.
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Looking like one sick little duck. OST seems to be the favoured rival atm.
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

I've been coming across more and more reports that China's steel production is outstripping demand, even given their buoyant building boom.

Are there some forum members who could make a comment on how this, if correct, will affect Bluescope?

Ditto Sims, though clearly to a lesser degree.

Sorry, Joe, Rich and Wayne" I guess I should have put this last on the SMS thread.

Julia
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Julia said:
I've been coming across more and more reports that China's steel production is outstripping demand, even given their buoyant building boom.

Are there some forum members who could make a comment on how this, if correct, will affect Bluescope?

Ditto Sims, though clearly to a lesser degree.

Sorry, Joe, Rich and Wayne" I guess I should have put this last on the SMS thread.

Julia
Click to expand...

This ties in with what I was told about ships full of ore, sitting at the docks not being unloaded.

The story was that there was LC (letter of credit) problems, but this could be a factor also...or a symptom?
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Maybe we should open a thread on steel and global demand.... there are lots of different types of products out there and that will to a certain degree affect BSL. I'll try to dig up some broker summaries or reports on BSL and their particular products and markets. It's easier for me to go off charts as I don't know how reliable all these rumours and figures are and I'm no expert in steel.
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Here's a start on steel products and some views on why some steel co's should do better than others. Go to aireview.com and do some searches on 'hot rolled coil', 'steel market', 'long product' etc for info to make your head whiz!

CHINA ABOUT TO SPOIL BLUESCOPE’S PARTY?
www.aireview.com issue 82 27Oct05

Industry watchers at Steel Business Briefi ng (SBB) are not the most optimistic fellows around, especially when it comes to gauging China’s impact on Asian steel prices.

UBS analysts report the broker hosted a recent briefi ng by SBB Shanghai’s chief representative who took the opportunity to present a rather gloomy outlook for the industry caused by expectations of cheap Chinese exports fl ooding other markets.

SBB believes Chinese authorities will not be able to stop the current steel dynamics in the country, which will keep a lid on the price of steel products in China, and thus increase exports, and thus incumbents elsewhere will be forced to lower their prices to keep the Chinese exporters from their home markets. SBB is especially worried for producers of so-called fl at steel products.

UBS analysts tend to agree with SBB’s pessimism, at least as far as the production side of things is concerned - it is diffi cult to tame the steel dragon - but the analysts also believe Chinese demand will absorb more than SBB’s estimates and that should make the overall picture a less sombre one.
Nevertheless, UBS analysts also note that given there is evidence of continued weakening prices in China, and declining Korean domestic and Japanese export prices, it may well be that the negative picture painted by SBB may already be playing out currently.

The broker believes this increases the near term risk for BlueScope Steel’s (BSL) export earnings and thus its share price. Reason enough for the broker to keep a preference for the long product producers, OneSteel (OST) and Smorgon Steel (SSX), as they have little exposure to volatile global markets and greater exposure to strong domestic construction cycles. On a 12 month view, however, the analysts remain comfortable with a Neutral 2 rating for BlueScope.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Ask yourself why would the Chinese buy steel from BSL ???

BSL export aspirations are doomed if they think that they can produce in Australia and export, in competition to the Chinese.

A more realistic situation is China buying raw materials i.e. Iron Ore from Australia but certainly not the finished product.

BHP knew this a long time ago which is why they spun off their steel making business into a seperate entity and called it Bluescope. It was apparent a long time ago that BHP could not be competative as a steel producer and nor can BSL.

BSL will need to do two things, set up shop in China and export from China (very risky) or satisfy itself that it can achieve enough growth through it's domestic market, here in Australia.
 
Re: Bluescope Steel! BSL

Agree Yippo

They've just discounted the price today to reflect all this and now they're buying back in at these more realistic prices. They want you to think doom. Remember the emotions causing a person to sell are stronger than the emotion to buy.

Cheers
Happytrader
 

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