BSL - Bluescope Steel

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Read in the FinReview about rumours of takeover of SSX (Smorgon Steel- not doing as well as BSL and OST due to tighter margins), one of the majors was tipped, might have accounted for the dip in BSL, but also noted that many bluechip holders would have switched to the banks after the CBA result, should be switching back to BSL, OST etc again. Strong recovery on Friday for BSL, let's see if it continues.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Anyone keeping a close eye on Monday's profit annct? Is it to be expected at 8.30am as with AMP last week or do they release it later on in the morning, I don't usually follow profit anncts this closely but with the steep uptrend and reserve bank interest rate hike expected I'm wondering if it'll be a volatile day for BSL as the markets may go down for profit taking. BSL is also near psychological resistance at $10. I'm bullish on BSL longterm but I'm a bit cautious about tomorrow, should be good though.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Profit annct, appears to be as expected, no nasty surprises but there is a bit of bad news (mainly local market oriented), as expected. Share buybacks by tender sometimes slow the momentum down, have to see what happens now. http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...les-net-profits/2005/02/21/1108834692480.html

 

[Chief Wigam]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Technically BSL still looks good.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

A bit of a fall today, profit taking? Or the news of iron ore price hikes? Still above recent steep trendline. Looks like it'll continue to fall tomorrow judging by close and depth.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

BSL a bit of a hiccup recently. Looks like either a complex head and shoulders reversal pattern (neckline c. 9.25) or a diamond reversal/continuation pattern. If it reverses it'll hit $9 pretty quick and I measure $8.50 as the next stop- but that's just the TA theory. General trend is still up. So difficult with these sometime, let's look for some direction this week as prices don't tighten for long in this stock.

 

[DTM]

Re: PBL - Ready to go up?

I've been following BSL recently, not in it atm since I'm not sure of the direction. It's gone ex-div but some people will hold due to the 45 day rule, capital buy back still happening. Current formation was looking a bit toppish to me, might just be consolidation though, I expect an annct re price rise/surcharges for products before long. BSL may revert to a lower trajectory, which is why I'm not sure of BSL so far. Have to admit it really moves when it gets going. Will post a chart soon in the BSL thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8284#post8284 I'll probably enter via warrants.

BSL was down 20 cents today @ $9.25 which could be the bottom. Tomorrow will confirm this if the price goes back up.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Bounced off 9.25c today, I picked that as the neckline but on a closer look at the chart it's a thick neckline! So until it falls through 9.20 I'd say this one will hold. So revised neckline imo is 9.20-9.25c from where I've drawn it. Volume is poor so far today. Any other views?

 

[DTM]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Bounced off 9.25c today, I picked that as the neckline but on a closer look at the chart it's a thick neckline! So until it falls through 9.20 I'd say this one will hold. So revised neckline imo is 9.20-9.25c from where I've drawn it. Volume is poor so far today. Any other views?

I think that this is a positive move for BSL and can only see it going up from today. I bought in with call options today so will wait to see what happens.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

I think you may be right DTM about BSL bouncing, especially if this is a diamond continuation, but if it's not then just as much downside, next stop $9 in that case. I'm not quite sure so I'm out for the moment till things clarify. BSL currently climbing to 9.34. This week will be interesting.

 

[DTM]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Looks like BSL is looking to break out tomorrow. Hope I'm right, we'll see tomorrow.

I could also be wrong so don't take this as advice.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Looking a bit uncertain for BSL, I'm very cautious now as it's looking to test that solid (apparent) support at $9 and appears to have broken that 9.20/25 area. Maybe ppl are waiting on an annct of some sort? Any rumours?

 

[DTM]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

And at last the much awaited turnaround. Up 42 cents at the moment and hopefully will carry on past today.

:jump:

You're right Rich, when it moves it moves...

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Funny day for BSL, see the intraday. Steadily moving towards support at $9, will it bounce or pierce? I expect a bounce at first. Some brokers are shorting this (ie sp valuation) to $8.50 but views are varied. I think they're trying to influence the market so they can buy BSL cheap with some of that spare cash they've got from dividends etc. Still a great medium to longterm prospect imo.

First chart: Intermediate top in short term downtrend?? Just an intraday so won't read too much into it.

(next chart is longterm- looks like complex head and shoulders, downward sloping neckline, next stop 8.50 if it falls. If a brief jump up next week then gap at around 9.25 should be filled in a day.

 

[DTM]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Hi Rich,

I'm bullish on them as well. I bought some call options on them yesterday and expect to hold until Tuesday.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Appears to be following that down sloping neckline, crucial issue is it's below horizontal support/resistance at $9. BSL always jumps around so let's see where it's going. Below I see 8.60 and then 8.50. I see the big boys jumping in if it goes below 8.50, I wont be surprised if they turn their analyst reports around all of a sudden to Buy Buy Buy, but not yet, and tomorrow is another day....

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

Why didn't BSL go up more during the peak periods of September - January for most metals stocks?

After all, I would think the demand for steel into china would have been huge at that time, and even bigger now.

 

[Investor]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

I bought some BSL shares some time ago before the price rise.

Recent share price weakness appears to stem from significantly increased iron ore prices, leading to rise in COGS for BSL; uncertainty about the direction of the global economy (economic slowdown will reduce usage of steel products) and rise in supply of steel companies in China.

Bought more shares in BSL on Monday at $7.96. The P/E ratio is relatively low, but this reflects the high risk industry sector that BSL is in.

 

[mime]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

I think it's a good buy. But I rather buy cheaper stocks.

 

[Investor]

Re: Bluescope Steel!

In the latest aireview no. 55, just released, JP Morgan has a buy recommendation on BSL, citing a P/E of 5.1 for FY 05 and 6.2 FY 06.

Irregardless, the critical aspect for expectations of share price, is the global supply and demand equation. Supply of steel is increasing rapidly in China, but if demand can rise fast enough, then BSL is currently "value buying". Conversely, if demand cannot keep up with supply, BSL could be trading at fair value. Clearly, any prospective buyer of BSL shares needs to analyse the situation and form an opinion, but bear in mind that this is relatively high risk investment.

To me, BSL has good brands (colorbond and zincalume) which provide an element of product differentiation. BSL's strategy with expansion into Asia, with a gradual incremental approach, rather than lump sum critical mass, appears sound.

The relatively low P/E makes BSL an acceptable risk/return proposition for me, but not too large an allocation in the portfolio.