Brexit OUT of EU: What happens now?

[wayneL]

Widespread reporting last week on a Goldman Sachs report showing Britain has underperformed since Brexit.

From MSN:
Nearly six years after the UK voted to leave the European Union, a detailed study by Goldman Sachs has shed light on the economic ramifications of Brexit, revealing a nation grappling with trade declines, investment slumps, and labor market challenges. The influential investment bank’s analysis indicates that Britain’s economy is considerably worse off than it would have been within the EU, a stance contrasted by government claims of economic benefits derived from Brexit.

The Goldman Sachs report suggests that the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be up to 5% smaller than if the country had remained in the EU. This disparity arises from an amalgam of factors attributed to Brexit, including a slump in trade and investment, as well as an upheaval in the labor market due to altered migration flows. The bank’s chief European economist, Sven Jari Stehn, noted that while UK’s GDP per capita has increased just 4% since the Brexit referendum, compared to an 8% increase in the eurozone and a 15% increase in the U.S., UK consumer prices have also surged by 31%, compared to smaller rises in the U.S. and the eurozone.

Trade has particularly underperformed, with Goldman Sachs estimating that UK goods trade has lagged behind other advanced economies by around 15% since the vote to leave. Furthermore, business investment has also faltered, falling “notably short” of pre-referendum levels. The inflow of immigrants from the EU, once a significant contributor to the UK workforce, has plummeted, with the labor pool now predominantly comprised of a less economically active cohort of non-EU migrants, primarily students.

The study acknowledges the complexity of isolating the economic impact of Brexit from other concurrent global events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis of 2022. Even the government, while advocating for the economic merits of Brexit, recognizes the headwinds faced, citing a potential £100 billion investment unlocked over the next decade through the repeal of EU financial services law.

Despite these challenges, the UK government remains steadfast in its assertion of the positive growth prospects post-Brexit. The government remains optimistic about Brexit, asserting that it has positively impacted the economy. Kemi Badenoch, the Business and Trade Secretary, recently shared a series of purported Brexit advantages on Twitter. She said that “since 2016, we’ve grown faster than Germany, Italy, and Japan” and claimed that UK exports are up. She added: “The reality is Brexit is a strategy for the next few decades. We’re only four years in and it is going well. Of course there are challenges, but we are working through them.”

Yet, the Goldman Sachs study suggests that the cost of living has escalated disproportionately in the UK since the Brexit vote, which, coupled with the economic underperformance, paints a less optimistic picture. While some analysts argue that the impacts cited by Goldman Sachs may be overstated, with other factors such as Covid and the energy crisis playing significant roles, there is consensus on the apparent economic gap that has emerged since Brexit.

Is it Brexit? Or the total, comprehensive, egregious incompetence of the current iteration of the "Conservatives" (they are nothing of the sort).

The management of the UK has been nothing short of criminally and ridiculously incompetent... so I'm really not so sure it has anything to do with brexit at all.

 

[Ferret]

Is it Brexit?

Sounds like Goldman Sachs are putting it down to Brexit.

I'd like to read the report, but I can't find a copy.

 

[wayneL]

Sounds like Goldman Sachs are putting it down to Brexit.

I'd like to read the report, but I can't find a copy.

I suspect the morons at the helm. As far as the UK is concerned the most alarming thing is that the current mob of morons is about to be replaced by a worse mob of morons at the next election.

I tender as evidence: can anyone deny that the current mob of politicians are so laughably idiotic?

Are used to think they were following 1984 as a manual but I think it's actually the "Idiocracy".

I am waiting any day for them to start promoting "Brawndo, it has electrolytes".

 

[Dona Ferentes]

in Great Britain, things are not that great, and into another technical recession.

Labour Party HQ quickly called it the ‘Rishi Recession.’

There was, however, some good news on the inflation front.

a measurable month-on-month decline in the headline rate but with a stubbornly sticky level of inflation in services, at 6.5%.

 

[sptrawler]

in Great Britain, things are not that great, and into another technical recession.

View attachment 171179
Labour Party HQ quickly called it the ‘Rishi Recession.’

There was, however, some good news on the inflation front.

View attachment 171180

a measurable month-on-month decline in the headline rate but with a stubbornly sticky level of inflation in services, at 6.5%.

Yes, thankfully we have iron ore, bracket creep and an influx of migrants.

We aren't in a technical recession, but our lifestyle is sliding faster than the U.K's.
I guess it is all in the way you say it, or is it just a case of feeding the narrative " it could be worse, we could be like the U.K, in recession".

UK wage growth slows but still beats inflation

Average earnings, excluding bonuses, grew by 6.2% per year in the October-December quarter.

finance.yahoo.com

UK pay growth has slowed to its lowest level for more than a year but it is still outpacing rising prices.

Pay, excluding bonuses, grew by 6.2% in the last three months of 2023 compared with the same period a year before, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). After taking inflation into account, pay went up by 1.9%.

Pay rises including bonuses was up by 5.8%. That was down from a summer peak of 8.5% but readings are higher than the City expected.

The figures may be of concern to the Bank of England, that is keeping a close eye on wage rises, having previously identified them as an inflationary concern. Inflation currently stands at 4%.

However, the data also showed that pay growth slowed at the end of last year to the weakest level since October 2022.

We're doing great, nothing to see here, I say smuggly sipping away.

 

[sptrawler]

I don't follow UK politics, but read this article today and it sounds like a new face might get in.
Which may be good IMO, way too much social class distinction over there, the have's and the havenots are alive and well.

The first Labour leader with a 'Sir' in front of his name may soon be charged with saving the United Kingdom

UK cities are broke, utility prices are sky high and the cost of living is barely affordable. Sir Keir Starmer is likely to become just the fourth Labour leader to win an election. If he does so, his task is monumental.

www.abc.net.au

From the article: He may be a breath of fresh air, time will tell.

Sir Keir often publicly discusses his working class roots and has frequently denounced snobbery in Britain's political discourse.

Baldwin believes Sir Keir's contempt for posh Britain, despite being a knight and an Oxford-educated former barrister, is genuine.

"He comes from a small village in Surrey, the sort of place you've never really heard of, unless you've lived there yourself," Baldwin said.

"His dad felt the sting of people looking down at him because he worked in a factory. I think that's part of what drives Starmer now.

"He's the first Labour leader in my lifetime to talk a lot about class and snobbery."
Sir Keir is seen by many political pundits as moving the Labour Party to the centre.

 

[wayneL]

I don't follow UK politics, but read this article today and it sounds like a new face might get in.
Which may be good IMO, way too much social class distinction over there, the have's and the havenots are alive and well.

The first Labour leader with a 'Sir' in front of his name may soon be charged with saving the United Kingdom

UK cities are broke, utility prices are sky high and the cost of living is barely affordable. Sir Keir Starmer is likely to become just the fourth Labour leader to win an election. If he does so, his task is monumental.

www.abc.net.au

From the article: He may be a breath of fresh air, time will tell.

Sir Keir often publicly discusses his working class roots and has frequently denounced snobbery in Britain's political discourse.

Baldwin believes Sir Keir's contempt for posh Britain, despite being a knight and an Oxford-educated former barrister, is genuine.

"He comes from a small village in Surrey, the sort of place you've never really heard of, unless you've lived there yourself," Baldwin said.

"His dad felt the sting of people looking down at him because he worked in a factory. I think that's part of what drives Starmer now.

"He's the first Labour leader in my lifetime to talk a lot about class and snobbery."
Sir Keir is seen by many political pundits as moving the Labour Party to the centre.

I'm less optimistic, will be watching closely in view of my comments in other threads.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some attempt to rejoin the EU

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I don't follow UK politics, but ...it sounds like a new face might get in.
Sir Keir is seen by many political pundits as moving the Labour Party to the centre.

well he made it to #10

the move to 'the centre' has been helped by the marginalising of the rabid left in Labour, Corbyn was expelled as were thousands of card carriers.

But the democratic system is curious, to say the least. One review pointed out the following:

" ...The Labour Party won a thumping landslide, winning 411 seats out of 650, whilst only getting 33.7% of the popular vote.

In fact, Labour’s total vote of 9,699,879 was less than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017.

In 2017, the Labour Party, under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, received 12,877,918 votes and won 262 seats, losing the election to Theresa May’s Conservative Party.

Obviously, the above is a consequence ...that a first past the post election system can deliver.

A quick look at the table above reveals that the Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, got 4,103,727 votes and only 5 seats.

In contrast, the Liberal Democrats got 3,501,004 votes and won 71 seats.

If you’re thinking, have we seen anything like this before, the answer is that we have not.

Never in British electoral history has a party won so many parliamentary seats with such a small share of the popular vote.

Think of it this way.

66% of those who cast their votes, did NOT vote for the Labour Party, and yet the Labour Party won 63% of the seats in Parliament.

 

[sptrawler]

well he made it to #10

the move to 'the centre' has been helped by the marginalising of the rabid left in Labour, Corbyn was expelled as were thousands of card carriers.

But the democratic system is curious, to say the least. One review pointed out the following:

" ...The Labour Party won a thumping landslide, winning 411 seats out of 650, whilst only getting 33.7% of the popular vote.

In fact, Labour’s total vote of 9,699,879 was less than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017.

In 2017, the Labour Party, under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, received 12,877,918 votes and won 262 seats, losing the election to Theresa May’s Conservative Party.

Obviously, the above is a consequence ...that a first past the post election system can deliver.

A quick look at the table above reveals that the Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, got 4,103,727 votes and only 5 seats.

In contrast, the Liberal Democrats got 3,501,004 votes and won 71 seats.

If you’re thinking, have we seen anything like this before, the answer is that we have not.

Never in British electoral history has a party won so many parliamentary seats with such a small share of the popular vote.

Think of it this way.

66% of those who cast their votes, did NOT vote for the Labour Party, and yet the Labour Party won 63% of the seats in Parliament.

Sounds like Gerry Mander is alive and well.

 

[sptrawler]

The wife and I were in Pars last October and it was a bit multicultural, we had no problems, but it wasn't as though the locals weren't in your face and they weren't all locals.
But it is a volatile place and not a place for the faint hearted or timid to be walking around in, alone at night IMO.
Only putting it here because people heading that way, might look at this thread.

Nine’s Olympic staff attacked in Paris during attempted robbery; police investigate alleged gang rape

The assault came after Australian athletes were warned not to wear their uniforms while out in Paris following the alleged rape of a 25-year-old Australian woman over the weekend.

www.smh.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

There is a huge public response to the stabbing of the children in the dance class.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...-media-flares-more-riots-20240801-p5jych.html

London: British police say they have charged a 17-year-old with murder over a stabbing attack that left three girls dead and several more in critical condition. The charges came as the traumatised town of Southport cleaned up after a bout of far-right violence, and agitators fired up by anger and misinformation clashed with police near the prime minister’s residence in London.

Merseyside Police said the teenager, who has not been named because of his age, faces three counts of murder and 10 of attempted murder over people injured in the attack during a Taylor Swift-themed summer holiday dance and yoga class.

He is due to appear in court in Liverpool later on Thursday.

About two dozen children were attending the summer vacation workshop on Monday when an attacker with a knife burst in. Alice Dasilva Aguiar, aged nine, seven-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe and six-year-old Bebe King died from their injuries. Ten other people were injured, among whom five girls and two adults are in critical condition.

 

[IFocus]

London: British police say they have charged a 17-year-old with murder over a stabbing attack that left three girls dead and several more in critical condition. The charges came as the traumatised town of Southport cleaned up after a bout of far-right violence, and agitators fired up by anger and misinformation clashed with police near the prime minister’s residence in London.

Merseyside Police said the teenager, who has not been named because of his age, faces three counts of murder and 10 of attempted murder over people injured in the attack during a Taylor Swift-themed summer holiday dance and yoga class.

He is due to appear in court in Liverpool later on Thursday.

About two dozen children were attending the summer vacation workshop on Monday when an attacker with a knife burst in. Alice Dasilva Aguiar, aged nine, seven-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe and six-year-old Bebe King died from their injuries. Ten other people were injured, among whom five girls and two adults are in critical condition.

Sounds familiar(note the bolds) wasn't the footage of the young bloke in a mask a white fella?

 

[sptrawler]

Sounds familiar(note the bolds) wasn't the footage of the young bloke in a mask a white fella?

Yes I didn't want to make it racial, or religious, just about the outrage at kids getting senselessly attacked.
My bad, it has to be about loonies, not about outrage at the atrocity.
Can't get in the way of the narrative, my apologies.

I guess the Italian female boxer, who quit the fight after 46 seconds because she was scared of the gender changed woman hurting her, was just a far right loonie woman complaining?

 

[IFocus]

Yes I didn't want to make it racial, or religious, just about the outrage at kids getting senselessly attacked.
My bad, it has to be about loonies, not about outrage at the atrocity.
Can't get in the way of the narrative.

It not a narrative outside of the misinformation but race will come into it during hard times and ATM much of the UK is on its knees fertile ground for far right recruitment and violence blaming all evil on immigrants similar to the US and the Nazis.

 

[sptrawler]

It not a narrative outside of the misinformation but race will come into it during hard times and ATM much of the UK is on its knees fertile ground for far right recruitment and violence blaming all evil on immigrants similar to the US and the Nazis.

There is a internal influence affecting our youth, which is radicalising them, pretending it isn't happening and labelling people who are concerned about the problem is actually inflaming it.

For every action there is a reaction and just because we are an apathetic society, doesn't mean all societies are, it just means we haven't been pushed far enough yet to get to the stage those other countries are at.

But we are heading there, even you can see that, or maybe not.

 

[IFocus]

There is a internal influence affecting our youth, which is radicalising them, pretending it isn't happening and labelling people who are concerned about the problem is actually inflaming it.

I talk to a lot of youth through surfing I don't see any radicalization at all in fact the opposite most actually care for each other some thing that didn't happen much in my youth which was closer at times to the hunger games.

What I do see with problem kids is dysfunctional homes and often lower income families which the UK has a serious issue with ATM.

 

[sptrawler]

I talk to a lot of youth through surfing I don't see any radicalization at all in fact the opposite most actually care for each other some thing that didn't happen much in my youth which was closer at times to the hunger games.

What I do see with problem kids is dysfunctional homes and often lower income families which the UK has a serious issue with ATM.

I thought it would be unheard of, until recently.

 

[orr]

It not a narrative outside of the misinformation but race will come into it during hard times and ATM much of the UK is on its knees fertile ground for far right recruitment and violence blaming all evil on immigrants similar to the US and the Nazis.

It heartning to see the broarder responce far outweighing in numbers to nazi fellow travllers.
I heard a great quip this morning... 'a great percentage of the rioters were probably among the anti-lock down brigade; which ironically in short order they'll be learning a lot more about'

 

[Knobby22]

Keep calm and carry on. A long way from revolution.

No sign of far-right disorder fails as thousands of counter-protesters line streets

Anti-fascist, anti-racism protests were also held in Finchley, Brentford, Lewisham, and towns and cities across the UK

www.standard.co.uk

 

[moXJO]

Keep calm and carry on. A long way from revolution.

No sign of far-right disorder fails as thousands of counter-protesters line streets

Anti-fascist, anti-racism protests were also held in Finchley, Brentford, Lewisham, and towns and cities across the UK

www.standard.co.uk

When it happened in Iran they killed all the useful idiots in the first wave.