Brexit OUT of EU: What happens now?

[SirRumpole]

It will be interesting to see if Boris enthusiastically stands for PM to sort out what he created, or if he will try and worm out of it and leave it to someone else.

 

[moXJO]

He's not your everyday conservative is he? I like what he says, he seems fair. But the mess they're in now will take decades to unravel into something resembling a heathy economy. Will job creating corporations be interested in GB now?

From what I heard there are a lot of corporations looking at moving to GB as they will no longer have the restrictive red tape of the EU.

 

[CanOz]

From what I heard there are a lot of corporations looking at moving to GB as they will no longer have the restrictive red tape of the EU.

It depends if they're labor dependent or not...You're going to pay more for labor if there is an alternative a few countries away with cheaper labor

What makes the bureaucracy in the EU different from the UK? Restrictive?

 

[McLovin]

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that Britain will extricate itself from the EU's extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal...

No it won't. If the UK still wants to access the single market then it will still have to incorporate vast swathes of EU legislation into its domestic law, it just won't have a say at the table deciding such things.

Yes, the government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry.

The emerging consensus is the UK wants a Norway style deal that will see it return to the EEA. The EEA still has the four pillars policy, including the free movement of labour within the EEA. The UKIP idiots actually believe that they can get single market access for goods and services without the free movement of labour, as someone in the EU said, if we do that then why not let in Australia and NZ too.

Boris is being pretty foolish if he thinks the EU, err I mean Merkel, is going to give the UK what it wants and expect nothing in return. The pussyfooting around by the UK government, which seems to be in total chaos has strengthened the hand of the EU.

As for Boris, well he's just a politician, and not a very good one.

 

[dutchie]

England wants a replay of Brexit and the game against Iceland.

 

[UMike]

England wants a replay of Brexit and the game against Iceland.

Probably lose both again anyway.

 

[doctorj]

From what I heard there are a lot of corporations looking at moving to GB as they will no longer have the restrictive red tape of the EU.

Name one.

I've been in London for quite a few years now. I am sympathetic to those that voted leave, as clearly they're unhappy with the way things are working out for them and they're looking for something better. They're not really sure if it's red tape from the EU, immigration or whatever, but they've seen their coal mines shut, the north of England transform into a post-industrial wasteland (and a great place to film zombie movies) and post financial crisis they've felt poorer than ever.



The EU has given them something to blame for their situation. Their response is to vote for exploring the supposedly greener grass on the other side. Arguments like the one above; the EU-generated red tape, are often used in support of the vote. Belief of such arguments requires a suspension of reality.

The reality is that the UK has plenty of red tape of its own and in the absence of EU-generated regulation, in most circumstances UK-generated regulation would have taken it's place.

The impact of the leave vote has already hit hard, but is reality is only at the beginning. Banks, which make up 26% of exports now have a higher cost of funding (due to the sovereign downgrade), are likely to be hit by higher NPLs in a weakened domestic market caused by a likely recession and many will be forced to relocate if they want to continue doing business with the EU as the UK will no longer be part of the single market. 1.1 million people work in the UK financial sector and most of them are not wealthy traders or M&A people.

But it's not just banks. In Sunderland, 61.3% of people voted to leave. Nissan, one of the largest employers in the city (6,700 people) has a plant to assemble cars for domestic sale and export which now is of questionable viability because of the pending loss of EU market access. Elsewhere in the pro-remain north, Siemans has announced that it will suspend investment in wind turbine manufacture in Hull until there's clarity on their ability to export it. Many large employers in the UK are now faced with difficult decisions about how they can continue their business from the UK and have indicated they are considering the need to reduce their UK based workforce to move it elsewhere - Vodafone, VISA Europe, GM, Ford, Toyota, BT, BMW and many more.

From my side, I couldn't run my business without access to the single market. We are a small company, but we employ people from all over Europe. We need to do this because we just can't get enough British people with adequate expertise to do what we do. To give a specific example, we simply cannot get our hands on enough developers with any kind of financial services experience in the UK and we have to hire from far and wide. And we don't have a business without them.

Rather than hurt our business, EU regulation stands to help it a lot. From one country, we can operate across a whole continent without having to deal with more than a dozen regulators - instead we can just deal with one that is around the corner, speaks our language and understands our business. But for Brexit, we would have continued access to fast and nearly free payments across the continent, access to data from banks through APIs, cheaper costs due to things like the abolition of roaming charges.

Instead we face 2 years or more of uncertainty. Will our staff be allowed to work for us in 2 years? Will we need to establish a European subsidiary to do business there? If we do, does it make sense to continue to have a UK office, when we actually don't ever expect to have UK-based customers?

On a personal level, I think I contibute a lot to this country. I pay taxes, our company creates jobs. We export from Britain to the world. But as a foreigner, married to another foreigner, do I really want to remain in a country that is so against foreigners?

 

[drsmith]

Nigel Farage doing what he does best.

Earlier this month,



Post Brexit,

 

[skc]

Name one.

I've been in London for quite a few years now. I am sympathetic to those that voted leave, as clearly they're unhappy with the way things are working out for them and they're looking for something better. They're not really sure if it's red tape from the EU, immigration or whatever, but they've seen their coal mines shut, the north of England transform into a post-industrial wasteland (and a great place to film zombie movies) and post financial crisis they've felt poorer than ever.

On a personal level, I think I contibute a lot to this country. I pay taxes, our company creates jobs. We export from Britain to the world. But as a foreigner, married to another foreigner, do I really want to remain in a country that is so against foreigners?

Great post, DrJ. Good to hear from you.

I agree with your perspective from where you stand. Clearly the perspective of the Leavers are different.. although I am unclear if they are mis-informed, have too much mis-placed hope (that leaving solves all the problems) or are actually correct. It is like a divoice, where someone blames their state in life on their relationship, rightly or wrongly. What is different, however, is that in a marriage you can potentially go through counseling first and work things out. I wonder if EU/UK had that kind of mechanism? There are talks that the vote was in fact the mechanism to force EU to go counseling with UK, and that there will be a 2nd referendum to vote on whether any concession / compromises reached are acceptable to the public.

I can't believe the FTSE trading where it is (literally unchanged from the vote)... the banks have been whacked and no where rear recovered... which means the materials and industrials must be driving the index up? I suppose the fall in the pound helps. But the market seems to have ignored all the uncertainties you've mentioned.

Can't help but feel like they are going back in the water 5 minutes after a shark sighting.

 

[CanOz]

On a personal level, I think I contibute a lot to this country. I pay taxes, our company creates jobs. We export from Britain to the world. But as a foreigner, married to another foreigner, do I really want to remain in a country that is so against foreigners?

Doc, :bowdown: first of all i can't begin to express how great it is to see you post again. Secondly, what a pragmatic and unbiased perspective of the Brexit, very much appreciated.

Thirdly, I really hope everything works out for you, your family and your business. Good luck mate.


Cheers,



CanOz

 

[sptrawler]

From what I've read, only 50% voted and most of them would have been older people.

Now we see the younger people in the streets complaining, shame they couldn't bother their ar$e to get out and vote, it's a bit late now.

 

[moXJO]

It depends if they're labor dependent or not...You're going to pay more for labor if there is an alternative a few countries away with cheaper labor

What makes the bureaucracy in the EU different from the UK? Restrictive?

Read here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cut-eu-red-tape-report-from-the-business-taskforce/cut-eu-red-tape-report-from-the-business-taskforce

 

[doctorj]

Clearly the perspective of the Leavers are different.. although I am unclear if they are mis-informed, have too much mis-placed hope (that leaving solves all the problems) or are actually correct.

Everyone I've spoken to that voted to leave did so in protest. They believe the system isn't working for them and they want change. They didn't believe that the economic risks were anything more than scaremongering and that, like the financial crisis, everything would be ok in the end.

'OK' is unfortunately a relative term and in the years to come it will be nigh on impossible to prove the counterfactual. I have no doubt that the world will keep turning, there will still be jobs and people will still get by. Some will also become more wealthy than they are today.

I also have no doubt that important elements of the financial services and manufacturing industries will continue to move away (and probably will be joined by many more industries that I know less about) and as a result, real incomes will continue to fall, probably even faster than the last few years.

Doc, :bowdown: first of all i can't begin to express how great it is to see you post again. Secondly, what a pragmatic and unbiased perspective of the Brexit, very much appreciated.

Thanks! I still read ASF from time to time but sadly I just don't have the time to participate. On top of that, I don't have the ability to contribute much anyway as my understanding of Aussie equities and the economy is virutally fully depreciated after all these years away.

From what I've read, only 50% voted and most of them would have been older people.

Now we see the younger people in the streets complaining, shame they couldn't bother their ar$e to get out and vote, it's a bit late now.

Yes, it's a big shame that younger voters didn't turn out to vote in the same proportions as older folk. It was their future on the line afterall. Turnout rates were generally quite high though.

 

[moXJO]

Sorry doc.
I posted a long reply last night, only to wake up and see I lost the lot.

 

[McLovin]

I wonder if EU/UK had that kind of mechanism?

They did try and negotiate back earlier this year. It was the agreement that Cameron secured that pretty much formed the basis of his Remain campaigning.

There are talks that the vote was in fact the mechanism to force EU to go counseling with UK, and that there will be a 2nd referendum to vote on whether any concession / compromises reached are acceptable to the public.

This has always been my view. The 27 countries of the EU excluding the UK know that they don't want the UK out and the UK is waking up to the fact that it doesn't really want to leave. If anything I think this vote has brought EU reform finally to the front and centre. Which is a good thing. Maybe they can also deal with the periphery which Brussels has put into perpetual depression.

 

[CanOz]

Why can't you have a Union plus some kind of regulated movement of people instead of absolute free movement of labor?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

It is like a divoice, where someone blames their state in life on their relationship, rightly or wrongly.

I was thinking exactly the same thing. Separation is never a celebration even if it's the right decision.

Connection is good, but not all connections are healthy. Separation can trigger old wounds, abandonment fears etc. I'm sure that's what's going on with the 'Regrexit' crowd.

 

[SirRumpole]

Why can't you have a Union plus some kind of regulated movement of people instead of absolute free movement of labor?

Good point. If the UK retained control over it's migration policies, it would still be in Europe and gain all the benefits thereof.

It was basic racism that took them out.

 

[McLovin]

Why can't you have a Union plus some kind of regulated movement of people instead of absolute free movement of labor?

Because the single market has four freedoms; goods, services, capital and labour. It's not just about Britain, and it's not about the EU (in fact the EU has no real power in these negotiations). If Britain negotiates with the 27 other countries to to have those four freedoms, but in return the 27 countries only get limited freedom of labour how do they sell that to their own voters? Especially in countries that already have large eurosceptic movements.

 

[CanOz]

Because the single market has four freedoms; goods, services, capital and labour. It's not just about Britain. If Britain negotiates with the 27 other countries to to have those four freedoms, but in return the 27 countries only get limited freedom of labour how do they sell that to their own voters? Especially in countries that already have large eurosceptic movements.

Sure, but all that was before we had the biggest jihadist movement of modern times, which is clearly creating paranoid emotional responses, as likely intended. What if all parties agreed that a stricter border control 'pillar' is needed? Would that not help pacify some of the paranoid conservatives?