Brexit OUT of EU: What happens now?

When a country is led down a disastrous economic path with long term outcomes that will cost many billions of pounds and economic constrictions on a total lie. then pretending the new reality is actually ok is just another lie.

The Brexit bill is emerging rapidly. The well predicated economic consequences of turning a frictionless economic situation into millions of complex, costly transactions are unfolding. It's something to consider when making investment decisions on UK based companies.

The bill for Boris Johnson’s Brexit is coming in and it’s punishingly steep​

Andrew Rawnsley

Ministers say it is just teething trouble. To many businesses it feels more like root canal surgery without the benefit of anaesthetic

( In Summary)
Some did understand that there would be a price to be paid. One of them was Boris Johnson. He knew enough about the importance of this issue to fib about it. On Christmas Eve, when he was hailing his agreement with the EU as a fantastic new chapter in our island story, he claimed that “there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade”.

This was self-evidently untrue even at the time that he said it. His government accepts that companies will collectively need to employ 50,000 additional customs agents in a post-Brexit world. Industry figures suggest that less than a quarter of that number had been trained by the time Britain left the single market.

The HMRC estimates that Brexit demands that British companies complete 215m additional, often highly complex, documents a year with a mirroring amount of extra paperwork also being generated by EU counter-parties. The cost of that alone on British businesses is thought to be around £7bn a year. If you make exporting and importing more difficult and more sluggish, at the same time as making cross-border transactions a great deal more costly, then it stands to reason that there will be less trade.

Faced with the heavy burdens imposed by Brexit, some companies will stop exporting to the EU because they can no longer find any profit in it. Other companies will move elements of their operations – and, in some cases, all of their business – out of the UK to inside the EU. Investment, jobs and tax revenues that would have benefited the UK will in future go to countries in the EU instead. This is already happening. Other companies will simply find that Brexit has left them unviable. Overwhelmed by the new costs, they will go to the wall. That will be especially so for those who were already struggling to survive because of the coronavirus crisis.

British business lost to European competitors. British entrepreneurs crushed. British jobs exported abroad. Welcome to the Brexit.

Hasn't taken long to move on to Boris @basilio, I suppose we can look forward to endless posts from the Guardian, until they switch to Morrison.

sptrawler said:

Hasn't taken long to move on to Boris @basilio, I suppose we can look forward to endless posts from the Guardian, until they switch to Morrison.

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Let's not be too particular SP. Boris wasn't the only pusher of Brexit. He had a ton of Tory assistants who pushed the Brexit process and allowed the misrepresentations and lies to stand.

In one sense there is no use crying over spilled milk. But maybe it's worth remembering who threw the whole dairy into the ditch in the name of 'Freedom and Sovereignty' and asking if they should continue to be entrusted with political power.

And certainly if you feel that the articles I reference on the outcomes of Brexit are overstating the case feel free to show otherwise.

basilio said:

And certainly if you feel that the articles I reference on the outcomes of Brexit are overstating the case feel free to show otherwise.

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The problem is Bas we wont know if the articles are overstated for a few years, currently the virus is going to be skewing figures anyway, but they will be used to suit the purpose of those who write the article.
IMO it will be interesting to compare how things are travelling in the U.K in five years, how anyone can take a snapshot now is pure stupidity and nonsense IMO.
Let's be honest it has been five weeks, also most changes aren't enacted for 12 months.

basilio said:

Let's not be too particular SP. Boris wasn't the only pusher of Brexit. He had a ton of Tory assistants who pushed the Brexit process and allowed the misrepresentations and lies to stand.

In one sense there is no use crying over spilled milk. But maybe it's worth remembering who threw the whole dairy into the ditch in the name of 'Freedom and Sovereignty' and asking if they should continue to be entrusted with political power.

And certainly if you feel that the articles I reference on the outcomes of Brexit are overstating the case feel free to show otherwise.

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This article, exemplifies why the U.K wanted out of the EU, it is either the EU's way, or the highway. It is like dealing with some on the forum. ?
From the article:
London: A bitter row which threatens to disrupt vaccine shipments to Australia has morphed into a post-Brexit stand-off, with European Union officials demanding immediate delivery of tens of millions of doses manufactured in Britain.

Under growing pressure to explain the sluggish vaccine rollout in the EU’s 27 member countries, officials insisted on Wednesday they were contractually entitled to vials produced at factories in Britain to make up for a shortfall on the Continent.

EU officials also brushed aside arguments from AstraZeneca that the United Kingdom was only getting a reliable supply because it signed deals three months earlier than the EU.

“We reject the logic of first come, first served,” the EU’s Health Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides, told reporters in Brussels.

“That might work at the neighbourhood butchers, but not in contracts and not in our advanced purchase agreements.”
The EU has already slapped export controls on vaccines produced within their territory in a move designed to force the pharmaceutical companies into reserving more doses for the bloc.

The new requirement, which effectively means producers must ask for permission before shipping vials outside the region, will at the very least slow the distribution process.

Some MPs want the European Commission to go even further and deny approval for vaccines to leave the region for third countries like Australia.
“The contract with the UK was signed first and the UK, of course, said ‘you supply us first’, and this is fair enough,” he said.

Soriot apologised for the delays but said European leaders were under pressure and “emotional”.
Soriot’s interview was seen as a demolition of many of the EU’s claims and insight into the bloc’s vaccine procurement failures.

He also said vaccines for Europe would only be produced at plants in the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Germany.

The EU denied this and said AstraZeneca was under a contractual commitment to use vaccines made in British plants to meet agreed delivery volumes in Europe.

A spokesman for Australian Health Minister Greg Hunt said the country was in a “strong position”because of its deal to manufacture 50 million doses of the AstraZeneca product in Melbourne.

The deterioration of trade in and out of the UK as a result of Brexit is causing extreme concern amongst the major business organisations.

The business groups said: “A range of problems were discussed, including the substantial difficulties faced by firms adapting to the new customs processes, sizeable obstacles to moving goods through the Dover-Calais route and the shortage of informed advice from both government and specialist advisers alongside a number of others.”

They warned that grace periods agreed with the EU would expire over the next two months at a time when cross-border traffic, which is usually low in January, was due to grow. Unless measures were put in place to smooth customs procedures, the situation would deteriorate, they said.

basilio said:

The deterioration of trade in and out of the UK as a result of Brexit is causing extreme concern amongst the major business organisations.

The business groups said: “A range of problems were discussed, including the substantial difficulties faced by firms adapting to the new customs processes, sizeable obstacles to moving goods through the Dover-Calais route and the shortage of informed advice from both government and specialist advisers alongside a number of others.”

They warned that grace periods agreed with the EU would expire over the next two months at a time when cross-border traffic, which is usually low in January, was due to grow. Unless measures were put in place to smooth customs procedures, the situation would deteriorate, they said.

Brexit: British business leaders warn of 'substantial difficulties' at UK ports

Letter says government needs to act quickly to resolve customs issues faced by exporters following Brexit

www.theguardian.com

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It is no different to the trade tensions between us and China, the bullies arent happy, there isnt many refugees trying to stop in Europe, same as there arent many boat people heading to China.
I just wish people would use their brains and think past the headlines.
But I dont think that will happen, hopefully our kids can think for themselves and I think the teachers are alerting them to that fact.

UK and EU at War Over Coronavirus Vaccine:

Amsterdam overtakes London as European share trading hub: FD​

From a practical perspective as investors I think we need to face the real reality of what this and quite a few other things are about.

Globalisation peaked roughly 13 years ago and the new trend is localisation, hard borders and so on.

That doesn't mean all trade stops but the trend is toward doing things locally and we're seeing that with quite a few things now. UK, US and so on and that won't be the last.

Smurf1976 said:

From a practical perspective as investors I think we need to face the real reality of what this and quite a few other things are about.

Globalisation peaked roughly 13 years ago and the new trend is localisation, hard borders and so on.

That doesn't mean all trade stops but the trend is toward doing things locally and we're seeing that with quite a few things now. UK, US and so on and that won't be the last.

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I think the last bastion of the previous thinking is coming to an end, even the multinationals realise they have very little influence on the emerging order, so it will be in their best interest to throttle it all back.
Trump just brought it to a head, the rest will automatically unfold.
Just my opinion.

I actually wouldnt be surprised if the chip shortage, is because the chip manufacturing is being dismantled.lol

Interesting analysis, now the dust has settled and the real statistics come out. From the Guardian.
From the article

The notion that the typical Brexit supporter was a working-class voter “left behind” in a red-wall constituency or dilapidated seaside town has been upended by research that shows half of leave voters were comfortably well off.
They did not have huge expectations of “sunlit uplands” or economic gains but believed that leaving the EU was an opportunity to address a perceived loss of industry, community services and national pride.
The research, by UK in a Changing Europe, drew on workshops conducted by the NatCen Social Research in the summer of 2020 and will shed fresh light on the motivations and aspirations of the typical Brexiter in Britain and how they might adapt to the changed political landscape.
It found that while it was true that many leavers faced sharp economic challenges, almost half were relatively well off.
A quarter of the leave vote could be categorised as “economically deprived, anti-immigration with monthly household income of less than £2,200 a month. A third of leave supporters were older working class, with an average age of 71.

However, almost half were “affluent eurosceptics” who shared the domestic priorities of the poorer cohort – they wanted further investment in police, the NHS and care workers and “proper, secure work for high-quality domestic production, as well as apprenticeship in real jobs”, says the briefing paper.
“Many of the comfortable leavers liked where they lived, they spoke about access to green spaces, shopping malls and local amenities but were aware of areas close by where they saw problems of crime and anti-social behaviour, a lack of opportunities for young people and loss of local manufacturing industry. They believed that Brexit would free up funding for some of this investment,” the researchers report.

Their views on immigration were more nuanced than the leave narrative suggests and were “most scathing” about British people on benefits who refused to do the jobs migrants would do.
National pride was a strong identifier for comfortable leavers with little support for devolution.

“The expectations and hopes for the post-Brexit world among comfortable leavers show a nostalgic optimism that leaving the EU (and the pandemic) might be a catalyst for change, but a change that could restore industries, services and a sense of pride from an earlier era,” concludes the report.

Sounds familiar

I bet the U.K is having a sigh of relief, now they aren't under the control of the EU temple of doom. ?
From the article:
Europe has again misjudged the contours, time-lags and politics of the pandemic. Large swathes of the continent will be in an incontrovertible fourth wave by the end of this month, before they are sufficiently vaccinated to ignore the medical consequences. This will be hard to explain.
In a surreal twist, the European Commission is actively threatening measures against Germany for imposing a quarantine requirement on its own residents returning from Portugal - that is to say, for trying to prevent more deaths in Germany as a result of largely unnecessary travel. Justice commissioner Didier Reynders says the rules must be exactly the same for everybody. It is doctrinal madness.

Well Brexit certainly hasn't hurt the U.K workers, things are looking good, when you don't have caravans full of cheap labor running around the country. ?
Wage growth is the fastest in 24 years.

Post from March 2020

sptrawler said:

The problem with being in the EU, my cousin in U.K told me was, European workers would come in a group and just take all the locals work.
My cousin, who is a truck driver, or lorry driver as he would call it, couldn't wait to get out of the EU.

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Well a year and a half later, my cousin appears to have been right.

From the article:
A combination of the pandemic and new immigration rules after the country left the European Union has left key industries suffering from intense shortages of workers. With the supply of candidates falling at a record pace, that’s fueling a rapid escalation of wages as firms scramble to fill vacancies left by immigrants from EU countries.

After years of stagnant pay, the situation is a rare moment of leverage for some workers to secure better conditions. Posted salaries for job openings in construction are up almost 7% this year, with those for drivers rising 5.7%, according to data up to July on jobs website Indeed.

Drivers for supermarket chains J Sainsbury Plc and Tesco Plc are considering strike action. The British Meat Producers Association says pay for processors has spiked to as much as 18 pounds an hour, twice the minimum wage.

A report from the Recruitment and Employers Confederation Thursday showed vacancies jumped in August, but the supply of candidates plunged. That sent starting salaries up at the fastest pace since it began collecting data in 1997.

The shortages are already leading to very public signs of strain. The British summer has been filled with stories of firms in dire need of truck drivers, and pictures of empty shelves at supermarkets.

How the government and businesses deal with the dilemma will help direct the economy toward a smooth recovery or a bumpy ride. A sustained jump in pay rates could add to inflation and worry Bank of England policy makers, who’ve started already talking about the need for higher interest rates.

Also on an economic growth front.
From the article:

BRITAIN's bounce back from coronavirus will be complete in less than five months forecasts suggest, far quicker than the eurozone's predicted recovery.​

They predict the economy could recover to its pre-pandemic size by the end of this year.

The growth would be the fastest annual rise since World War Two.

Last time the UK saw such high levels of increase in GDP was in 1941.

EY's analysts said: "With the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions across the country, and the vaccine roll-out continuing to progress, the growth prospects of the UK economy have improved beyond previous predictions.

"The economy is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic peak by the end of 2021 – two quarters sooner than expected in April."

The forecasters added: "Now that people are returning to working, shopping and socialising, the UK is well-placed to achieve a strong bounce-back in growth.

basilio said:

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Still plenty of people trying to get there Bas.


The French wont help, even though the U.K was prepared to pay them, yep the good old French there to help when you need them.?