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BPT - Beach Energy

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Beach recorded a bottom-line loss for the full year after taking heavy writedowns on oil and gas fields in southern Australia and in New Zealand, as advised to the market in June.

The oil and gas producer posted a net loss for the year ended 30 June of $475.3 million, down from net profit in the 2023 financial year of $400.8 million.

Underlying net profit slipped 11 per cent to $341.3 million on revenue that was up 9 per cent to $1.8 billion.

Beach declared a final dividend of 2¢ per share, on a par with a year earlier.
 
A shame as my last aspiritional (?) oil play on the asx
 
looks terrible ( on paper ) ( today's release of results )

but probably not tragic enough to bring it below my 80 cent 'top up price '

i hold BPT 'free-carried '

i note the DRP remains suspended , i wonder how long that will last ( the DRP has been inactive since 2017 )

will be interesting to see what they do in the coming year , tap into the reserve wells , or maybe cut done exploration
 
Down around 12% intraday on FY24 results which is close to the drop in underlying NPAT (i.e pre write downs). Big 20% drop in 2P reserves as fields not measuring up to expectations. Waitsia gas plant "near completion" and first gas early CY2025 with maybe 4 months ramp up to follow - so maybe 12 months away to hitting its straps if no more setbacks? Operational costs improving apparently.

Trading well below book value now and paying ~3% ff full year dividend
Anyway I'll wait for Greg Canavan's and Market Matters' takes for anything of interest on the fundamentals.

Chart shows a break down from more than a year's trading range and so far I suspect this won't rapidly recover.

Held
Holding

DAILY


 
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I think I'll reproduce the Greg Canavan excerpt about BPT and in particular Waitsia that I posted a page back in June. It reminds me to keep a close eye on the BPT chart as I am certainly considering an add. Not to encourage anyone else in that direction though - I obviously have no idea of what I'm doing when it comes to 'oilers'.

Posted back in 20 June

Why oil prices are about to turn higher​


By Greg Canavan
11 June


Beach Energy [ASX:BPT]
is higher risk given it’s all about the Waitsia LNG project.

At full capacity, Waitsia should produce nearly 15 million barrels of oil equivalent. At 50% ownership, it will add nearly 7.5 million barrels to Beach’s annual production, representing an increase of close to 40% on FY24 production.
That is a significant production increase in what I expect to be a bullish energy price environment.
Provided Beach can complete the project without any more major hiccups, increased production and earnings should begin to flow through in the second half of FY25 and into FY26.
But it’s a decent proviso given the delays and cost blowouts seen so far.
We’ll get an update on this and the overall business next week (18 June) as the company presents the results of a major strategic review.
One of the best energy analysts in the country, Saul Kavonic, seems to think Beach is on the right track. Quoted in The Australian, he said:
 
Some new guidance from Greg Canavan at fat tail investment advisory. He gives BPT lengthy attention but his conclusion is to demote it to a hold based on uncertainty and a reduced valuation following the FY24 report. He also discusses WDS which he maintains a buy on for long term investors. Sees lots of promise in WDS's U.S positioning.

Excerpt:

" .. Beach in recent years. Intrinsic value has been on a steady decline as profitability (measured by return on equity) fell from 15% in 2022 to 10.5% in 2024. And thanks to asset write-downs in FY24, equity value per share hasn’t grown at all in that time.

No growth in equity value and declining profitability equals declining intrinsic value.

Revised valuation​

So, what’s an estimate of value now?

With Waitsia expected to contribute full production from FY26 (that’s the plan!), I estimate Beach will generate a return on tangible capital of around 13%.

As investors, we can tolerate a lower return on capital if the assets in question have a relatively long life of production in front of them, like Woodside’s. Apart from Waitsia, with an expected life of around 15 years, Beach’s assets don’t offer this comfort.

Using a 12% cost of capital, I estimate Beach’s intrinsic value at around $1.50. A 12% cost of capital is high for a company of Beach’s size (and higher than I have used previously) but I think it’s conservative and best represents how the market sees the risk profile of the company now.

The share price is unlikely to trade at that level until Waitsia proves itself. The results briefing this week revealed a potential six week slippage on the project (although the CEO is hopeful of making that up) so the market is clearly taking a wait and see approach there as well .. " (continues)

Held
Holding, might make a chart based addition at some point?
 
Afternoon Market Matters
  • Beach Energy Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT A$1.18
Held
 
eskys said:
BPT $1.25

Last Price (AUD) $1.250
Today's ChangeUp $0.060 (5.04%)
Click to expand...
A money pit :
one of a few of my stocks deeply in red in the last year.i should have exited before, but you know the excuse:
investing, super, long term ,time in market..well not the later as even i understand it is bull****...
It is a long crawl to the top if ever it comes but it is good to see it is at least following POO
 
I Hope this Chart Helps-----
Sailing the BPT---------One WEEK at a Time -----------------------------------&------------------One DAY at a Time

Salute and Stay Well
 
Captain_Chaza said:
I Hope this Chart Helps-----
Sailing the BPT---------One WEEK at a Time -----------------------------------&------------------One DAY at a Time
View attachment 185264
Salute and Stay Well
View attachment 185265
Click to expand...
Hello Captain,

Thank you for posting.

I don't mind telling you that I'm a very bad chart reader. I can see alright but I can't understand. It's a reflection of me, not you, just in case of any misunderstanding.

What's all those blue, red and yellow lines, and the xxxxxx? And how do they indicate the movement of BPT? Is it going up or down? Which side is a trend chart? The one on the left or the one on the right? Sorry about this, so many questions..
 
on fundamentals , it should trend lower , on a slowing economy and higher inflation ( higher costs )

however it DOES have several capped wells ( waiting for infrastructure and a profitable scenario for those wells )
my av. SP is 52.5 cents , as i was buying from 76.5 cents down to 40 vents in 2015/2016

i start to find BPT interesting when it dips below 80 cents
 
Oil is up and BPT is up, sp $1.265, up 1.61% performing better than STO and WDS. I kept looking at Captain's charts, and have taken upon myself to make a conclusion (looking at the bottom of the charts) that this stock is trending up. I don't know how to read the top bits of the charts. Do you know how to read them, divs?

And, is it trending up?
 
Sorry to hear that----Sea-Cadet Esky
We only learn the HARD WAY and that is by DOING
Unfortunately
DOING is HARD Going

All Sea-Cadets must take ONE Indicator at a Time and See how that instrument works over Time
When that Indicator Stops working on the "CLOSE ONLY " it is usually Time to Run For Shelter or you Stop Out

Then you do the HARD YARDS and Study most IF NOT ALL other Instruments as your Time Permits ONE BY ONE

TRUST ME! It's as Easy as That!



NB: Sports Betting on Sailing Ships is the Greatest & Largest Sport of the All for both Participants and Spectators

NB: First Law of the SEA / Rule #1 ------- ALLOW for BLACK SWAN EVENTS -as "Safety is Paramount" at Sea

Nobody seems to allow for BLABK SWAN events
It is extremely Fool-hardy to believe one can avoid these events with Stop Orders
I now always have at least 15-20% in CASH at all times

I call it the General MacArthur Great Tack
ie: The "I Shall Return" Tack

Salute and Gods' Speed

 
You wicked man; hard task master. I like you most days, but today I don't! Not that you care. Thanks for your input.
 
Michael Gable thinks oil stocks could take off. Obviously there will be individual variation. He is keen on Woodside:

"Is this the next sector to take off?
"I recently wrote about how share markets could see some large rotations occur once the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates.
Two weeks ago I made a quick video explaining that it was a matter of when not if commodities start a huge rally.
So what is the next sector that is due to take off? Are we about to see a massive short squeeze in oil stocks?"

BPT Held
Holding

 
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