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BPT - Beach Energy

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Beach has been well and truly hammered down however with the world recovering from the Covid pandemic and oil and gas demand to increase I believe Beach will recover significantly.
The recent heads of agreement with BP Singapore is a step on the way.

“Beach Energy (Perth Basin) Pty Limited, a subsidiary of Beach Energy Limited (ASX: BPT) (“Beach”), today announced it has entered into a Heads of Agreement (“HOA”) with BP Singapore Pte. Limited, a subsidiary of BP plc (“bp”) regarding the supply of Beach’s share of liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) from Waitsia Gas Project Stage 2.
The HOA contains all material terms and conditions for bp purchasing all 3.75 million tonnes of Beach’s expected LNG volumes from the Waitsia Gas Project Stage 2, with supply forecast to commence in H2 2023.”
The action in the share price has seen it recover from a little over a dollar to $1.40 in just over two weeks.
 
Beach is looking to close on a high for the day and the week and the month, just under $1.50, which is a level not seen since the precipitous fall when the Western Flank downgrade was announced (late May).

Going into northern winter, I suspect there will be sustained strength in the oil price, and gas contracts should also firm up.

I wonder if the swing shale producers will return? Their bankers have held them to a disciplined approach that is somewhat out of character.
 
I had not the patience... sold at 1.25 then lately 1.15 in august after a 25%, then11% falls all the while oil price was rising..Will not touch it with a pole
 
Beach’s new chief executive officer Morné Engelbrecht said, in his first remarks as permanent CEO last week, that the firm is on course to deliver increased domestic gas production as it brings new projects online, while a surge in prices equips it with balance sheet strength to explore new acquisitions.

Much of the capital expenditure will be spent on its
  • offshore Otway development, connecting Thylacine wells to OGP – targeting first gas mid-CY2023, and
  • Waitsia Gas Project Stage 2. Complete construction and commence LNG exports – targeting H2 CY2023

  • As well, reprocessing of existing 3D seismic over the Yolla field has revealed a previously unidentified fault block, Yolla West, which is drillable from the existing Yolla platform. If successful, Yolla West could be connected to the Lang Lang Gas Plant soon after drilling. Beach has decided to prioritise the development of Yolla West, which presents as a lower-cost, nearer-term and higher-returning investment opportunity (than Trefoil). Aiming to be drilling over the 2022/23 summer.
  • No material oil exploration in the Western Flank for over five years . ..... 24 prospects matured to drillable status in FY22
 
One of the problems with Australia's oil stock performances versus oil prices per se is the massive price disconnect since early 2021:

I looked over BPT's financials and what sticks out is how much it has to spend to keep its production profile and fund ongoing projects:

All the best news for BPT arrives in 2024 when their capital expenditure no longer cruels their barrel of oil equivalent profit margins. BPT is trading at over $1.60 right now, but that's on an exceptionally strong oil price. Unless the WTI price holds up in the medium term then it's difficult to see BPT do other than fall in price in the interim.
In the short term WTI is on a bit of a bender, so BPT might get close to $2/share again, in which case I will be selling.
 
WTI, and associated oil indices, Brent, Singapore, are all doing well. And BPT nudged $1.90 today

And an added benefit is the ability of Waitsia to sell into the export spot market .... First LNG sales target of H2 CY2023 and commence LNG exports.
Waitsia ~50% complete. Waitsia Stage 2 completion as at 31 March 2022 per joint venture operator (Mitsui) guidance
Click to expand...
 
Correlating BPT with STO and WPL we see the latter well ahead of their pre-pandemic prices, with BPT a laggard:

But as you note, better times are ahead for BPT with good progress being made on their production pipeline - excuse pun.
I am looking to sell my BPT shares above $2 nut am not in a hurry.
 
BPT LATEST trade is $1.7 . doing well DNH
 
Market was expecting more, given the PoO strength
  • "Despite lower production, increased demand and pricing for our products saw a rise in earnings and cash flows".
  • total revenues increased 13 per cent to $1.8 billion in FY2022
  • underlying earnings lifted 17 per cent to $1.1 billion
  • dividend of $0.01 a share
Looking like 2024 before things happen. These outlooks probably assisted the 12% drop today, to $1.62
  • expects 2023 production to range between 20 MMboe and 22.5 MMboe, from 21.8 MMboe in 2022.
  • Unit field operating costs are expected to rise to $12 to $13 per boe, compared to $11.74 in 2022.
 
The 12% slump changed slightly better at the closing today. Was it an overreaction?

extract from MF (free version)
Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)
The Beach share price is down 12% to $1.63. Investors have been selling this energy producerâs shares after its FY 2022 profits fell well short of expectations. Beach reported an underlying net profit after tax of $504 million. While this was up 39% year over year, it was nowhere near the consensus estimate of ~$546 million.

I liked this section though
“These results contributed to a strengthening of our financial position. We ended the year with total available liquidity of $765 million and $752 million in free cash flow pre-growth expenditure2 generated. This leaves Beach in great shape to deliver its current growth projects and balance longer-term growth aspirations with capital management initiatives. “In the field, Beach is demonstrating its ability to deliver large and complex projects. Beach is safely achieving key milestones which are de-risking growth and strengthening the foundation for our FY24 production growth target


 
yes but they have several capped wells ( waiting for future production ) i assume that is waiting for infrastructure or an economic price

so the news is unlikely to tumble to price enough to tempt me to add extra ( am looking for sub 80 cents as long as it is not a horror announcement )

i would also expect difficulties acquiring/keeping suitably skilled staff as well

( i hold BPT at very low cash risk , but is also less likely to go ten-bagger for me , so am not rushing to throw extra cash at it )
 
Good evening,
BPT published its AGM Addresses and Presentations today (16/11/22). pp11-14 talks about WGO and STX.

Of note, Beach Energy Limited (Page 13 of 18):
We have no intention to make an offer for Strike Energy. If you apply our Warrego offer on a look through basis to Strike’s 2P Beach Energy Limited Page 14 of 18 reserves you’ll realise we believe Strike is not something we would acquire at its current share price.

Kind regards
rcw1
 

Attachments

  • Annual-General-Meeting-Addresses-and-Presentation.PDF
    3.1 MB · Views: 2
a big difference between acquire ( take at least 51% of the STX shares ) and a JV of convenience ( for example 70% of WGO with STX holding the remaining 30% ).

watch this play for more twists and turns ( IMO )
 
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