BNB - Babcock & Brown

[psychic]

Long-term its a good buy at current levels. BNB listed on the market back in 2004 at $5.00, rode the bull market up to $32 and has now crash in a bear market.

Those that buy blue chips stocks in a bear market and sell at the end of a bull market stand to gain the most

The next bull market will eventually kick off and history will repeat itself.

 

[psychic]

Some impressive breaking news over the past 3 days makes BNB a very strong investment choice.

* A US 700 billion bail-out
* Global leaders now talking about major bail-outs (worldwide)
* Total ban on short selling
* A short-cover rally must, I stress must, take place now
* A continued US rally into Friday night
* BNB is very much oversold on fear

 

[johenmo]

Some impressive breaking news over the past 3 days makes BNB a very strong investment choice./

I'm still wet behind the ears at this, and hold BNB. I think the use of the word strong is optimistic. I'd use gutsy/brave/dicey/{insert own word here]. I ain't buying more! How many BNB shares do I have to sell to buy a coffee?? LOL

 

[psychic]

The way I see it as these sorts of buying opportunities come once in a lifetime on blue chip stocks, those that bought up late last week on BNB lows(me included) will make significant gains within days/weeks.

So much happend over the weekend for BNB to stay at these low levels. Massive global changes are being executed which will have significant impact for BNB holders.

BNB invested in a high risk market and paid way too much for some of its assest. Banks will soon start lending again and BNB will be able to off-load some of its assest to new investors. These assest inluding houses in the US and Europe.

 

[johenmo]

psychic - If I was trading then I'd agree re days. Just today's price is a good %. Since my time frame is longer than yours (not trading) I guess we're looking for different things.

But people have doubts about the bailout.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12498
Market uncertainty has driven it down and it's still volatile. Learners like me have to watch and learn for a while.

Good luck.

 

[prana]

Have I got this right? BNB asked ASIC to check who's been down ramping the business *cough*dhukka*cough* and saying it won't survive through the week. And ASIC has turned around and pointed at Macquarie ?

"On Wednesday, ASIC said it was looking into alleged false rumours about a number of companies, naming Macquarie. "Pushing false rumours designed to harm a company, such as by forcing a share price down, is illegal," it said."

That's a big allegation by ASIC against Macquarie. If that's the case, maybe Macquarie is thinking of buying up BNB and so downramping it ? lol Funny games at play.

 

[chops_a_must]

Long-term its a good buy at current levels. BNB listed on the market back in 2004 at $5.00, rode the bull market up to $32 and has now crash in a bear market.

Those that buy blue chips stocks in a bear market and sell at the end of a bull market stand to gain the most

The next bull market will eventually kick off and history will repeat itself.

This is simply floored thinking.

Every business cycle sees blue chips come and go.

In order for a new bull market to kick off, new businesses and business models have to come into play, and old ones get shoved off.

If you are into that sort of strategy, you'd be looking at the level of businesses below to get into.

Anyway, I did some price targets for BNB some time ago that came back negative. I don't think it can survive.

 

[Nicks]

Have I got this right? BNB asked ASIC to check who's been down ramping the business *cough*dhukka*cough* and saying it won't survive through the week. And ASIC has turned around and pointed at Macquarie ?



That's a big allegation by ASIC against Macquarie. If that's the case, maybe Macquarie is thinking of buying up BNB and so downramping it ? lol Funny games at play.

Ive always thought Maquarie is dodgy. I tried to get some put options on them the other week at $48 but missed out. Im suprised they have not collapsed. They seem to me to be a lot more into the asset revaluations in the bull market than anyone else. I still think its only a matter of time. These assets must be getting lower than their geared against by now.

BNB however I think has potential and are doing the right moves to correct what needs correcting. Their only mistake, unlike Maquarie, is that they are being very transparent and open about what is going on. Personally I thnk it is a good chance at recovering strongly. It has the deals and income comging in. It just needs to gear down a bit, which it is doing, and maintain the banks support - which it has. Once the confidence comes back in again to BNB and the dividend starts flowing, people will see it as another Westpac that has rebuilt and learnt. Its probably going to be safer in the future than ever. And there is a market for an Investment bank like BNB, hence why it is still pulling in the deals which once they start paying off, things will turn around. Anyway these are just my thoughts and of course I dont claim to be right.

Prana - do you disagree with Dhukka?

 

[Julia]

This is simply floored thinking.

Chops, given your propensity for criticising others on this forum, you may like to take another look at the above, perhaps?

 

[chops_a_must]

Chops, given your propensity for criticising others on this forum, you may like to take another look at the above, perhaps?

I'm more than happy for people to take me to task.

The ideas around market leadership as expressed above are simply wrong on the broader scale.

 

[Julia]

I'm more than happy for people to take me to task.

The ideas around market leadership as expressed above are simply wrong on the broader scale.

You have missed the point. Don't you find anything wrong, if you stop to think about it, with "floored"thinking????

 

[dhukka]

The way I see it as these sorts of buying opportunities come once in a lifetime on blue chip stocks, those that bought up late last week on BNB lows(me included) will make significant gains within days/weeks.

So much happend over the weekend for BNB to stay at these low levels. Massive global changes are being executed which will have significant impact for BNB holders.

BNB invested in a high risk market and paid way too much for some of its assest. Banks will soon start lending again and BNB will be able to off-load some of its assest to new investors. These assest inluding houses in the US and Europe.

The problem is that BNB was only ever a blue chip in drag. They got on board the cheap credit, leverage to the hilt model and it worked wonderfully whilst asset prices were going one way. However that evironment has effectively come to an end for the short to medium term. GS and MS represent the most successful at this game and but as of today they have essentially admitted that they cannot continue in their current form and are converting to bank status.

BNB dooes not have the same level of leverage but they suffer similar problems. Reducing leverage and significant asset sales are the only way they can survive. Nothing has fundamentally changed in the last few days to change that.

 

[Bin57again]

Psychic
Good pick. Soooooo obvious now that BNB would benefit from the short covering. You should be proud of yourself for being so strong in your opinion. Alas, I didn't have that foresight (didn't see your post until now). I hope you made a fine profit.
As a relative newbie (trading about 4 yrs) I'm still learning some of these tricks...
Bin

 

[prana]

Nicks - no, I don't disagree, it's not my place to agree or disagree. It is an observation, and I'm open minded to all these sentiments before me. I just quoted him because he was saying exactly what BNB was approaching ASIC with, not singleing anyone out for any negativity.

Happy investing all

But based on the overall almost overwhelming negative sentiment, I'll be taking action on this one too. : love net forums ....

 

[sparc]

There has been alot of high volume transactions lately on this stock, assuming the markets become stable, BBI would be an attractive acquisition targert given the sp and assets it has.

interesting to hear others comments.

 

[Pingu]

Have I got this right? BNB asked ASIC to check who's been down ramping the business *cough*dhukka*cough* and saying it won't survive through the week. And ASIC has turned around and pointed at Macquarie ?



That's a big allegation by ASIC against Macquarie. If that's the case, maybe Macquarie is thinking of buying up BNB and so downramping it ? lol Funny games at play.

Umm I may be wrong but what I understood from this announcement is that the ASIC was looking into false rumors about Macquarie, namely the story in the Australian about them having problems refinancing a $5 billion loan.

Also, an interesting alternative to BNB is their $100 notes (BNBG). They are currently trading at around $24 (I got them last week at $14, although they went as low as $10). If BNB survives these notes are repayable in 2015 and in the mean time they pay interest at the rate of around 10%. You can also convert these to BNB shares around 2010 (at $100 per note and market rate for BNB shares minus about 2.5% discount). So from my understanding, if BNB doesn't go bust these have to be paid out... and if it does go bust these rank above shares anyway, so if they don't get paid out in full, the shareholders will receive nothing.

 

[Nicks]

Seems there is a recovery of BNB going on. Each and every day it has been steadily moving up 15-50%. At this stage it seems to be moving up much the same way it moved down.

I cant help but wonder if the ban on short selling, position covering and the realisation that a large part of the reason this stock was driven down by fear rather than fundamentals and short selling. Sure the fundamentals were not doing so well, but it was the sudden sheer fear and panic that has hammered it. Now that this has settled and the short selling is gone, I cant help but hypothesise if the opposite will now occur.

 

[milky]

hi all,
i tend to agree with you nick.
i look at bnb in a somewhat similar vain as aristocrat (all) a few years ago.
nearly colapsed , but pulled it's way out with change of management.
thou if bnb assets keep falling it will be another matter.
cnp is another one in a similar plight.
drivin down by the large bankers to a point they may buy it at a fire sale , or make more on refinancing the loans !

 

[Nicks]

Yep I think the exact same fear and panic that had people running for exit with BNB will also have them buying in now for fear and panic that they dont miss out on some massive gains, as we have seen in the last few days.

This same panic buying could see BNB shoot up just as ridiculously as it went down. It would be an intesreting case study!

I mean, we all sit here thinking... circkey should I get in and buy some. There is only so many 15-50% gains in a row we see before we think we are missing out. Then we all jump in and the situation invents iteslf.

 

[adobee]

Well its definently shooting up !!!
about 2million buyers and 400k sellers up 40% to around 2.4 .. i jumed on at 1.40 a day ago... i think alot of being will start dumping though soon ..