BNB - Babcock & Brown

[3MT]

Those were issued by analysts 6-12months ago before **** hit the financial fans and huge blob landed on BNB.
A few days ago either Citi or UBS put a new price target of $1.34 on BNB.

fwiw, i think hes trolling. So no real losses there...

EDIT: Found link. UBS New target $1.24 lol
http://business.smh.com.au/business/green-to-exit-babcock--brown-20080820-3yhs.html

Just curious where they get the 1.24 from? Be wiser for them to just say avoid or no valuation possible. Wonder who is buying BNB.

Brings me to another argument, now that "the herd" is clearly saying stay away from this sinking ship, is it worthwhile to punt against them? maybe with $2500 bnb could be better than blackjack.

 

[lasty]

Whats that old saying "If you try to pick bottoms you get smelly fingers".

And then there are those who have been told. "Dont touch that iron or you will burn yourself." The next minute they do.
In other words they dont listen..
The market loves people like these..Unfortunately they dont stay around long enough to make more money out of.

Ok here is a tip.... Today Babcock is gone and we are left with "Brown"
What does that remind you of?.... Say no more !!!

 

[Aussiest]

Whats that old saying "If you try to pick bottoms you get smelly fingers".

...

Ok here is a tip.... Today Babcock is gone and we are left with "Brown"
What does that remind you of?.... Say no more !!!

Lol...

 

[Aussiest]

Hi Mate, I am one of those suckers who bought BNB on EXPERTS advice from SMART INVESTMENT magazine. They rate the BNB as high return and LOW risk which it was around $16.
I got the profit "affirmed" from ex-CEO (Green), and all the ticks from other "EXPERTS" brokers before I bought....well.... still screw up, big time.

We've all made silly mistakes. Heck, i've made silly mistakes following my own advice :.

I think the thing is to check the investor magazine recommendations against the real results. Eg, watch the stocks for a few months to see if these 'gurus' were indeed right. And, anyway, i think it's a big smelly conspiracy... Magazine authors buy in and of course give it a good recommendation.

 

[ROE]

Leverage works both way, sadly most people only see the upside
they don't see the down side of leverage, the down side is far more uglier than the upside.

Greed got to them and now they pay the ultimate price of losing it all.

 

[Mr_T]

Most financial journalists are pretty ordinary. Very ordinary.

However, if you read my past posts, many of the them paste the articles of Fairfax's Michael West. His articles are published in The Age (and I assume the SMH as well??). He has for a long time written artices spelling out the problems with BNB. He is one expert whose opinions are definitely worth reading.

 

[ROE]

We've all made silly mistakes. Heck, i've made silly mistakes following my own advice :.

I think the thing is to check the investor magazine recommendations against the real results. Eg, watch the stocks for a few months to see if these 'gurus' were indeed right. And, anyway, i think it's a big smelly conspiracy... Magazine authors buy in and of course give it a good recommendation.

I think you pick better tips from this thread and MQG thread ... Myself and other start sounding the alarms last year regarding financial structure engineering that use cheap debt to grow their business and buy inflated asset to fuel further fund spin off ...

 

[ROE]

Hi Mate, I am one of those suckers who bought BNB on EXPERTS advice from SMART INVESTMENT magazine. They rate the BNB as high return and LOW risk which it was around $16.
I got the profit "affirmed" from ex-CEO (Green), and all the ticks from other "EXPERTS" brokers before I bought....well.... still screw up, big time.

don't feel too bad, most of us listen to someone at some stage and lose money in the process but you got to use that experience as a learning tool and better yourself so you wont fall into the same trap...

I don't now how much you put in but losing 10%-20% of the portfolio is no big deal, with discipline and buy stock that you truly understand their business well, that 20% will return in no time

 

[kingbrown]

You guys seem to be putting me off so you can keep all the shares for yourself. It's not going to work. I am not that stupid.

I will be buying big when it comes out of the trading halt. I will send you a postcard from my yacht in the Bahama's next year!!

well one would think that most ppl on here do have some good advise
and you should have taken some of it today with a 33% odd drop

BNB is now a DOG !
as for your statement about the boat in the Bahamas
i can do you a good deal on an an old bath tub ?
Hey i might even give it to you for free ?



does any one know what exposure BNB has on our local banks ??

 

[Mr_T]

BNB has been a dog for a long time, just that the market has only recognised it relatively lately.

Uncle Phil - why don't you for once in your life do the honourable thing and give all the bonuses etc you've made through the years back to the shareholders.

Incredible - he was one of the highest paid CEO's in Australia!!

 

[M34N]

I know this is crazy, but i wonder if it is worth taking 1,000 long on BNB right now? Afterall, it could almost be classed as a speculative stock... If it goes bust, you'll only lose around $2,500 (i don't encourage losing money, but you get my drift).

*Disclaimer: i do not intend taking the above-mentioned position, my post is purely meant as conjucture

I actually feel sorry for all the mum and dad investors who got sucked into this stock.

Why spend $2500 now to get 1000 shares when it may get you 2000 tomorrow?

And another stock bites the dust, only question left is what stock is next... when the bears get a hold, run. Hopefully what happened to BNB is an example to everyone here (whether they held it or not) as to the importance of having to cut your losses early and avoid this kind of fiasco.

To think this is the 2nd largest investment bank in Australia and this can happen in 2008, disgraceful. :bad:

 

[ROE]

Why spend $2500 now to get 1000 shares when it may get you 2000 tomorrow?

And another stock bites the dust, only question left is what stock is next... when the bears get a hold, run. Hopefully what happened to BNB is an example to everyone here (whether they held it or not) as to the importance of having to cut your losses early and avoid this kind of fiasco.

To think this is the 2nd largest investment bank in Australia and this can happen in 2008, disgraceful. :bad:

BNB is nothing, small fries in big world.... What about Enron and Worldcom, Freddie Mac, Fannie May.
size does not matter when it comes to Crab business

Uncle Warren always said

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor economics, it is the reputation of the business that stays intact."

 

[M34N]

ROE,

It's more in perspective of the fact that this was once one of Australia's best companies, now it's worth a fraction of what it once was due to gross incompetence from management who thought they could continue to live on a dream forever at the expense of investors who bought into the company and entrusted them. That's what's so disgraceful, and it's criminal really. But the warning signs were there, and people have known for a while about their problems and I hope all the people on here got out while they could have.

You can only shake your head in amazement, I watched this collapse today & yesterday and felt for a lot of people who may of been holding and hoping.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

A number of brokers have $36 targets on BNB, I personally will be waiting for BNB to break old highs then sell. Still a lot of room to move.

This stock has recovered very well from correction.

No matter where you look, which broker you reference or which report you read - BNB is an absolute bargain.

Even last night when I received my Comsec report, they are suggesting that BNB is an extremely rare chance not to be missed. The target 12 month target now stands at $35 with an expected 12 month SP earnings forecast exceeding 30%

In my opinion, and fall now is an opportunity to grab some more stock. If necessary, I'll be selling other non performing stocks to follow BNB down. It's a pity that the dividend return is not so good

BNB is tied to the bad taste of sub prime and is put into the same box as others in the financial tagged stocks and suffers accordingly. Funny thing is, BNB is relatively un-exposed to sub prime lending and probably shouldn't be punished as badly as it has been.

The BEI satellite is being seen as a peripheral failure and got punished. Coinmach seemed like a pretty good investment to me - but got punished again today, I guess share holders don't like seeing money being spent which is pretty odd when you hold shares in a company where this is their core business.

The market responded a little better with the Melbourne Children's Hospital deal.

I didn't check, but was told by a trader friend of mine that Macquarrie is being treated similarly.

IMO BNB is a buy, buy, buy - there is no need to take a loss on this baby.

Here you go:

Opportunity to profit from fear

Australian investment banks have underperformed the market since the onset of the subprime turmoil. Sentiment has been dragged down by record losses in US and European banks. This is an extraordinary buying opportunity for some stocks in this sector.

Investment banks around the world have been hit by a crisis of confidence. US banks have so far written off over US$50B worth of mortgage-related losses in 3Q, and the market is expecting further write-downs over the coming quarters, up to a possible tune of US$200B if not more. The
trouble is no one, including the banks themselves, can quantify the full extent of their losses with any certainty, as the market for these investments has all but dried up.

With so much uncertainty hanging over the market, investors appear to have lumped all investment banks into the same boat, and we believe this is an opportunity to profit from fear. Most Australian investment banks, particularly Allco Finance (AFG) and Macquarie Group (MQG), have been
oversold even though they have little or no direct exposure investments that are primarily responsible for the massive write-downs in Europe and the US.

If anything, most in the sector have issued relatively positive outlooks, although these were laced with caution. The reason why AFG, MQG and Babcock & Brown (BNB) are relatively insulated from the sub-prime mess is because they mostly deal with physical assets. For instance, a large part of
BNB and MQG’s business is based on buying and “repackaging” infrastructure assets, while AFG is predominantly into leasing aircrafts and ships.
This is not to say their businesses are without controversies. BNB and MQG have received criticisms over underperforming satellite funds. This has prompted BNB to propose buying over Babcock & Brown Environmental Investments (BEI). The offer is valued at $0.508 per BEI share, but this is
unlikely to please all, since some paid $1.75 or more at its IPO.

The perception of the potential lack of acquisition opportunities has also weighed on the investment banks. However, we would not be surprised to see a pick up in acquisition activity, as there are still plenty of good infrastructure assets globally that are there for the taking.

Since all three investment banks rely heavily on overseas credit markets to fund activities, investors have been worried that the credit turmoil would impact their bottom lines. Although the cost of debt has risen worldwide, the banks do not seem to have much trouble raising funds. Last week, MQG
successfully closed a loan syndication healthily oversubscribed.

Meanwhile, MQG faces other challenges. A large portion of its revenues comes from share marketrelated activities, such as brokerage and M&A advisory and underwriting. In revealing its record $1B 1H08 profit, MQG said that its profit was boosted by unsustainably strong equity markets.

While we have factored this into our model, we note that MQG is well placed to profit from the booming Asian economies and there is likely to be continued strong demand for its M&A advisory services. BHP Billiton’s bid for Rio Tinto could spark more consolidation in the industry, while the Utilities sector is another that could experience a pick up in merger activity in the months ahead.

Just a reminder that not so long ago respected brokers and tip sheets were spruiking BNB as a buy.

How do they get price targets for the stocks they try to flog to unsuspecting punters?

At least technicians are honest, and quote fibonnaci or other extension target prices.

Note that no brokers suggested any poor sod sell BNB, and the Aegis tip sheet told investors to buy, traders to sell and noted that fundamentally it was a buy. Their prognosis basically vindicated the Technical analysis.



gg

 

[The Mint Man]

I think it is just the market. There is nothing wrong with this stock, in fact most brokers have targets of between $15 and $20.

I am going to speak to my bank to get a loan to buy more of these.

Never rely too much on what brokers say, too many times the so called 'experts' get it wrong or say this and that just to get their name out there. Sometimes they will own the stock giving them even more reason to back a particular share.
You also have to remember that they are probably still getting used to the new rules in the market after having years of easy gains! This market is making alot of supposedly good brokers and stock reports look VERY bad.

I don't want to sound like some of the other know-it-alls on here saying 'I told you so' (wonder if they had shorts?)
I know what this feels like, in the last 2 years I have been stung on both BDG and even more so on MFS/OCV, and I bought MFS on takeover talk..... What I will say to the people in BNB is that you will learn more about how things work (via this experience) than simply sitting on the sidelines watching. If your gonna take anything from this situation it may as well be a good lesson!

Cheers

 

[skyQuake]

Finally had a chance to have a closer look at charts. May be capitulation today.
Small parcel long 15min after open if structure holds should be good risk/reward... as long as it starts rallying.

 

[Mr_T]

I don't want to sound like some of the other know-it-alls on here saying 'I told you so' (wonder if they had shorts?)


Cheers

No, I did not have shorts. If I did, I assure you that posting stuff on this forum would hardly change anything, not like it is full of high flying wheelers and dealers.Do you seriously think that what anyone on this forum does changes the price of a share?

If you had followed my posts, you would know that I lost about 66K on BNB when I sold it at 14.50. Now, that is hardly enough to make me go broke. But as I looked into their accounts & investigated things further, I found lots of half truths, deceptions and ommissions. I posted stuff on this channel because I didn't want others to lose money the way I had. If you look at past postings, you will see that I have gone out of my way to post all sorts of stuff that I researched about BNB from various sources.

I have been trying to help people. I resent your implication.

And yes, I have a right to take pride in my predictions being correct. Not all that often that I am right, so I am proud of myself when I am. I make no apology for this.

 

[Aussiest]

When brokers and columnists make recommendations, they should set stop-losses.

...............................

 

[Green08]

When it is falling so dramatically why don't the regulators put it in a trading halt to stop (if there where) Margin calls etc.

I was always a little perplexed that the announcement would do anything good unless the new guy has Bullwinkle type qualities - watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat. Or for the Jesus types fish and bread from the basket For those religious people do you blame God on this one or do you look at it as Divine Cleansing?

never Held , and Never Will Never liked their business model

 

[Mr_T]

Green: not sure why this would be beneficial for shareholders. They might want to take their losses and sell out at whatever price they can.

Just look at the poor MFS/Octaviar shareholders. Doesn't look like their shares will ever be traded again.