BKN - Bradken Limited

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Well, my comment of yesterday now seems like rubbish - market is up today and BKN still down.

Nizar, did you sell?

Well for whatever reason, it seems the right stategy to leave BKN alone until it finds a level.

Time enough to buy then.

 

[Miner]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Well for whatever reason, it seems the right stategy to leave BKN alone until it finds a level.

Time enough to buy then.

You are probably right.
Every time I put a low trigger the SMS from Commsec comes to say BKN has passed the limit.
Ironically my friendly broker at Bell Potter still maintained its original recommendation as BUY . As I have posted before when Bell says Buy - Just sell the beast.

Regards

 

[Miner]

Re: BKN - Bradken

thought the attached document from BPS will say something. BUY BKN AT $9.40 AND BUY AT DIPS. How dip is dip only Bell Potters can say.
If I have had the ability I would award non metallic gold coin to the great researcher from BPS.

Enjoy the report.

Regards

 

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Thanks, Miner.

BPS make it sound like BKN is a screaming buy at current prices but I think I'll wait for this big dipper ride to end.

 

[ROE]

Re: BKN - Bradken

I cant see anything special about this Stock

Share holder equity decreasing -- bad
Debt Rising -- Bad
Outstanding shares increasing -- Bad

 

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Directors have been buying in reasonable quantities. ---Good!

Don't have their level of confidence. I'm still waiting.

 

[ROE]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Directors buying is a good sign but I'm a skeptical bastard and sometimes
I questions their motive

I mean sure they spend a couple of hundred K on the stocks but how much money are they making in return? ... their salary is some where in millions
and really a couple hundred K is nothing extraordinary for them.

but for me to lose 20K or something that a fair chunk of my income and for them to lose a couple hundred K it maybe be lose change for them... they get the luxury of making it back in Bonuses regardless of how well a company is run these days

I like it better where they have significant of their wealth ties to a company they run like FLT, WWA etc... that provides a better pictures of how much stake they have in the game.

 

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

I'd normally be right up there with you ROE in the scepticsm stakes but directors of BKN don't seem overpaid by today's standards. M/D collected $1.7m for his efforts last year but other directors ranged from $94k to $186k (Chairman - NG) so I don't think that they are making an empty gesture by their buying.
In any case, I'm waiting for this skittish market to settle before committing myself. Have made too many mistakes buying in falling markets to want to repeat the experience.

 

[Judd]

Re: BKN - Bradken

An irrelevancy probably. AFI became a substantial shareholder in BKN on 10/1/07. Same mob that dumped its entire holdings in CNP before the brown matter really hit the air-conditioner.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Yeah its not bad

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 45.8 59.5 69.6 76.7
DPS 31.5 40.0 46.0 53.0

thx

MS

Will the interim dividend be above 10 c???It has been increasing every year but steadying growth reported!!!

 

[michael_selway]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Will the interim dividend be above 10 c???It has been increasing every year but steadying growth reported!!!

They havent announced this yet have they? If not do you know when?

thx

MS

Date: 22/1/2008
Author: Michael Smith
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 18
Australian-listed mining engineering firm, Bradken, has insisted its long-termprospects remain strong. The company has achieved 30 per cent annual earningsgrowth for four years. However, in December 2007, the group predicted a flatfirst-half profit, thanks to delays in producing rail cars, a poorly-priced UKcontract and unexpectedly low growth for customers' mining projects. Sharesin Bradken have dropped 55 per cent since that warning. The stock ended trade$A0.10 higher on 21 January 2008, at $A6.75. Goldman Sachs JBWere recentlyupgraded its rating for Bradken shares from "hold" to "buy"

 

[pajm]

Re: BKN - Bradken

I have been a holder of BKN since early 2006 purely in the knowledge of AFI holding together with BKN servicing a booming mining sector. The initial fall in the sp last year was certainly disconcerting, driven further with recent market overkill. However, I increased my holdings during the recent market spill with knowledge of AFI re-entry and Comm. Securities also becoming a major holder. I have had good success over the years in following Comm. Securities holdings (NXS, AVO and AWE). The market is a lottery at times as far as I am concerned and following some of the big end of town one hopes to at least lessen the risk. Good timing for the DRP to be back in anticipation that (hopefully) we will see sp head north again. SP looks like for the time being it has bottomed out around the 6 to 6.50 range. Rock on!

 

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Half year result was a little better than expected and on the strength of that I've taken a small position.
Co seems confident of the next 6-12 months. I'd be happier if operating cash flow was a little stronger but we can't have everything the way we want it?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Half year result was a little better than expected and on the strength of that I've taken a small position.
Co seems confident of the next 6-12 months. I'd be happier if operating cash flow was a little stronger but we can't have everything the way we want it?

BKN not bad results today

Outlook and Strategy
“Bradken’s long term strategy remains unchanged. We believe the long term mining production expansion in Australia will
continue as each bottleneck is removed. Our work on margin growth continues to deliver improved performance through
capital investment, the deepening of the value add to our customers and by way of further vertical integration,” said Mr
Hodges.
“We maintain capacity to expand through aligned acquisitions in Australia and overseas. In a period of higher interest
rates and tightening credit, we anticipate there may be some downward adjustment in acquisition values.”
“The next period will see increasing costs and tightness in the labour market, which our current programs are addressing.
Our overheads, while on plan, have increased ahead of recent growth levels and will be restrained in the short term to
enhance profitability.”
“Power & Cement is expected to return a normal level of profitability in the second half as the completion of the
unprofitable contract, from product already made in Australia, will not impact on its capacity to complete orders from its
significant order book. In addition, we are expecting growth in mine production volumes and demand from infrastructure
projects delayed from the first half. A full six months contribution from recent acquisitions and associated synergy benefits
will also provide impetus in the second half of this financial year.”
“We therefore maintain our previous guidance for the full year and expect EBITDA growth of around 20% and EPS growth
of around 15%.”

 

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Half year result was a little better than expected and on the strength of that I've taken a small position.
Co seems confident of the next 6-12 months. I'd be happier if operating cash flow was a little stronger but we can't have everything the way we want it?

SP ended the day up 13.4%! Market obviously likes the result more than I did.

Should have taken a much bigger position!!

 

[michael_selway]

Re: BKN - Bradken

SP ended the day up 13.4%! Market obviously likes the result more than I did.

Should have taken a much bigger position!!

Not today however!

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 45.8 54.7 63.7 73.0
DPS 31.5 36.5 42.0 49.0

 

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Yes, looks like my timidity has kept me out of trouble here!

I'll still be looking to buy some more if/when an uptrend develops.

 

[pajm]

Re: BKN - Bradken

I believe BKN have been a good buy for the last couple weeks. I increased my holdings on 11.01 @ the $6.30's range - prior to that week of insanity on the market. They have held their own since with the volatility and therefore reckon they bottomed out. They got oversold on the back of downgrade in Dec. dove tailing with the correction. Oversold like a lot of good stocks. One's person's panic is another's picnic.

 

[oldblue]

Re: BKN - Bradken

I believe BKN have been a good buy for the last couple weeks. I increased my holdings on 11.01 @ the $6.30's range - prior to that week of insanity on the market. They have held their own since with the volatility and therefore reckon they bottomed out. They got oversold on the back of downgrade in Dec. dove tailing with the correction. Oversold like a lot of good stocks. One's person's panic is another's picnic.

I'm with you on that, pajm, but given the state of the market I'll be looking for an uptrend before I add to my position.

 

[pajm]

Re: BKN - Bradken

Certainly hope oldblue we do not have the hurley burley of Jan. market again in short term as I imagine could possibly test BKN below 6.00 range.