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BKN - Bradken Limited

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Re: BKN - Bradken

michael_selway said:
Hm both companies pretty expensive!

ANy risks u think with these companies Nizar?

BKN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 45.8 59.5 70.4 76.7
DPS 31.5 40.0 46.0 53.0

MIN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 16.9 24.1 25.5 28.7
DPS 9.5 11.8 13.5 14.8

thx

MS
Click to expand...

Michael,

I can see you havent changed your style.
Still posting earnings up like you always used to.

Forunately or otherwise, My style has changed markedly over this time.

No longer do I look at company earnings, or anything at all what the company does. I ONLY look at the TREND of the SHARE PRICE.

If its going up, and it triggers an entry (there are 4 filters in my entry trigger) then i buy it and KEEP HOLDING it until it hits my trailing exit. My trailing exit increases as the price increases to lock in increasing levels of profit.

But how do I sleep at night not knowing what my company even does?

Well I can take comfort in knowing that Im trading a system that has been WELL TESTED.

Why stick to a trading plan if you don't know even whether the plan is inherently profitable?

So I dont trade according to how I feel or what i think.
But rather -- using I system I KNOW has worked in the past and has a HIGH PROBABILITY of working in the future.

Any risks with these companies?
I cant answer that because I dont know the specific companies.

BUT I can tell you this. Any investment in anything carries risk. The trick is quantifying and managing that risk.
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

nizar said:
Michael,

I can see you havent changed your style.
Still posting earnings up like you always used to.

Forunately or otherwise, My style has changed markedly over this time.

No longer do I look at company earnings, or anything at all what the company does. I ONLY look at the TREND of the SHARE PRICE.

If its going up, and it triggers an entry (there are 4 filters in my entry trigger) then i buy it and KEEP HOLDING it until it hits my trailing exit. My trailing exit increases as the price increases to lock in increasing levels of profit.

But how do I sleep at night not knowing what my company even does?

Well I can take comfort in knowing that Im trading a system that has been WELL TESTED.

Why stick to a trading plan if you don't know even whether the plan is inherently profitable?

So I dont trade according to how I feel or what i think.
But rather -- using I system I KNOW has worked in the past and has a HIGH PROBABILITY of working in the future.

Any risks with these companies?
I cant answer that because I dont know the specific companies.

BUT I can tell you this. Any investment in anything carries risk. The trick is quantifying and managing that risk.
Click to expand...

Hi Nizar, would you have been stopped out today?

If not what price?

thx

MS

"Bradken (BKN) is one of the leading manufacturers and suppliers of consumable parts, capital equipment and associated refurbishment and maintenance services to the Australian resources and rail freight industries. BKN has 13 manufacturing facilities across Australia and New Zealand with diverse capabilities."
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

michael_selway said:
Hi Nizar, would you have been stopped out today?

If not what price?

thx

MS

"Bradken (BKN) is one of the leading manufacturers and suppliers of consumable parts, capital equipment and associated refurbishment and maintenance services to the Australian resources and rail freight industries. BKN has 13 manufacturing facilities across Australia and New Zealand with diverse capabilities."
Click to expand...

Hi Michael,

Have a look at my blog, I have the chart posted its the second one.
The stop is at $12.74.

But bear in mind my system is weekly. So if the weekly CLOSE is below my stop, then i will exit the next day.

You're thinking damn $12.74 thats alot of profit giveback.
And thats true, but you have to be willing to give back open profit if you want to ride the longterm trend. Thats the nature of trend following systems and why they are so hard to trade.
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

this share has been a no brainer as well as other shares which are supporting the mining industry. Fundamentals are very strong as long as emerging markets like China and India buy our resources ..
so am not surprised it has been going up since i bought it last year .
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

Ouch,

Not much good having a stop today? Or do you have garunteed stops even if it gaps down past your stop?
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

nizar said:
Hi Michael,

Have a look at my blog, I have the chart posted its the second one.
The stop is at $12.74.

But bear in mind my system is weekly. So if the weekly CLOSE is below my stop, then i will exit the next day.

You're thinking damn $12.74 thats alot of profit giveback.
And thats true, but you have to be willing to give back open profit if you want to ride the longterm trend. Thats the nature of trend following systems and why they are so hard to trade.
Click to expand...

Hi Nizar, did the stop work for your today?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 45.8 62.9 74.8 86.5
DPS 31.5 41.0 47.5 49.0

For immediate release
Thursday, 13 December 2007
EARNINGS GUIDANCE
Bradken advises that results generated after the first quarter show profit growth below market expectation and
have led us to provide the following guidance.
We anticipate that EBITDA for the six months to December 2007 will be up around 12%, up on the
corresponding period last year, with Profit after Tax relatively flat.
For the full year, we expect EBITDA growth of around 20% and EPS growth of around 15%.
• In regard to the Mining and Mineral Processing divisions, we flagged at the 2007 Full Year Results
announcement and the Annual General Meeting, that mining volumes have not been growing significantly.
This has now been confirmed by ABARE’s September 2007 Mineral Statistics. The lack of growth has
been compounded by delays in some of the major mine expansion projects, impacting growth in the first
half results. A number of these projects are expected to be executed in the second half.
• The Industrial division will have a strong first half including contributions from the Boogan and CMS
acquisitions, which are both performing in line with previous expectations. The second half should be at
similar activity levels to the first half.
• While the Rail division will have a strong first half result, it would have been better except for delays in the
start up of a major coal wagon project and the flow-on delays in the ramp-up of our new Chinese facility.
Activity in the Rail division will continue to expand in the second half with the corresponding ramp-up of our
Chinese facility. We do however still need to win further work to complete the second half forecast.
• After a good six months to June 2007, the Power & Cement division undertook a low margin contract and
this along with manufacturing cost increases has resulted in minimal EBITDA in the first six months. In
October/November 2007, the Bradken information technology (“IT”) system was installed in the Power &
Cement division, at which time these issues came to light. Performance will improve in the second half, in
line with the strong order book and as the remnants of the low margin contract are completed during the
first quarter of 2008. The new IT system will give improved visibility of margins, variances etc and we are
looking to increase our spend on maintenance and capital to remove bottlenecks in the production process.
Our ongoing strategy continues, focusing on investing capital expenditure to improve the business and to
pursue complementary acquisitions. This will enable Bradken to take advantage of the long-term growth in the
resources sector.

For further information, please contact:
Brian Hodges – Managing Director
Bruce Arnott – Chief Financial Officer
Tel: +61 2 4941 2600
Fax: +61 2 4967 5003
Email: bradken@bradken.com.au
Click to expand...
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

That's the biggest drop of any of my shares ever. Unlikely to make any sort of quick recovery either.

Nizar, I'd also be interested to know if you were still holding how you fared today?
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

Ouch - this has been my biggest loser ever - $13,000 down in 1 day! Still up on the price I bought in at, but it had been travelling so well of late. How can they not get the expected gains from mining - the whole damn country is mining. Can you tell I am :mad: :p:

Hey Julia, we are in sync - in both losses and the timing of our posts!
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

well they say some one has to lose money for others to gain .
I will be surprised if it goes below 9.00 . Long term think will go above this level as it's servicing the expaning mining industry. May pick some up around 9 level. Boy , what a massacre today ..:eek:
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

UraniumLover said:
well they say some one has to lose money for others to gain .
I will be surprised if it goes below 9.00 . Long term think will go above this level as it's servicing the expaning mining industry. May pick some up around 9 level. Boy , what a massacre today ..:eek:
Click to expand...

Anyone know which institution sold their holding today? Haven't see na drop like that for a while. Turbulent times we are trading in.

:eek:
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

Sheesh... bad luck to all you holders.

What surprises me most though is that I didn't buy this one yesterday...

GP
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

GreatPig said:
Sheesh... bad luck to all you holders.

What surprises me most though is that I didn't buy this one yesterday...

GP
Click to expand...

Nice call GP - I'm a bit like that - but I generally do far better snubbing my nose at something and then watching it shoot off much higher. eg Just bought AED a few days ago at $4.00 and then got out when it looked downward bound at $3.67....an of course as soon as the market heard I'd sold the elastic was cut and it snapped back up to the near $6 levels now!

When I tell the wife she is like, well why did you sell!

haha anyway grabbed some of these at $9.01....next stop $8?

Nah - looks fundamentally good co - high PE and current environment I guess meant it was going to be hit hard on the downgrade.

I mean really - is it 40% less of the company it was before hand? Of course not.
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

Prospector said:
Ouch - this has been my biggest loser ever - $13,000 down in 1 day! Still up on the price I bought in at, but it had been travelling so well of late. How can they not get the expected gains from mining - the whole damn country is mining. Can you tell I am :mad: :p:

Hey Julia, we are in sync - in both losses and the timing of our posts!
Click to expand...
Hi Prospector, you obviously have a few more of BKN than I. So that's the bad bit for you. But, you were smart enough to buy earlier. I only bought this one a couple of months ago so I'm well in the red today. Still a long term hold for me unless they come out with anything to the contrary.

GP, yesterday was your lucky day, huh!
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

Julia said:
Hi Prospector, you obviously have a few more of BKN than I.
Click to expand...

Had Julia, sold them in disgust! Maybe $1000 profit instead of $14,000!:eek:

Julia said:
But, you were smart enough to buy earlier.
Click to expand...

Ah, but not smart enough to sell them yesterday. Who would have thought though. There must be some real issues there if they havent capitalised on the mining boom though - crikeys, every other man and his dog has!
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

I've bought some of these today by selling a dog, so hope I haven't sold a dog to buy another dog!
I personally think they have a good future, for this mining cycle.
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

What a move down today, still it overshot it's fundamentals by a long shot....

For those looking at buying in now, here is a question for yourself...

Would you buy a business at 19x earnings with a flat to negative profit outlook?

Because my answer would be a definite no....

Cheers
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

Michael, Julia,

My system is based on weekly timeframes, and my trailing stop is currently at $12.74.

So if it closes the week below $12.74, then I will sell sometime during next week.

Its a pity to have to close this trade at a loss, being one of my biggest winners in terms of open profit, but on the wider scheme of things, its just another trade.
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

michael_selway said:
dog eat dog? :)

btw what dog did u sell today?

thx

MS

http://news.smh.com.au/bradken-share-price-plunges-40/20071213-1gto.html
Click to expand...
To finance this buy I sold some of my NAV holdings (I have way too many and that was making me nervous - they have been trending down - although my avge buy price was 50c - done quite well - shouldn't call them a dog I guess. IMO they are more speculative in nature than BKN, but only time will tell).
What does btw stand for? I am newish here.
 
Re: BKN - Bradken

Did anybody short this stock using Contract For Differences? You would've made a killing today that's for sure... :)
 

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