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Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

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Monday 29 January 2024 19:06:56 - IH Market News

Reduction in contracts boosts Bitcoin price​

The recent rise in Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) above US$43,000 may be related to the decrease in open interest in bitcoin options, especially at US$40,000, according to analyst Gordon Grant. After the options expired at the end of January, there was a notable decrease in these contracts, potentially freeing the Bitcoin price to rise. Now, attention turns to US$50,000 call options, indicating traders’ optimism about Bitcoin’s future value.

Bitcoin whale accumulation strategy anticipates 2024 halving​

In the current scenario, where Bitcoin ETFs are capturing market attention, Bitcoin whales (COIN:BTCUSD), with portfolios of 1,000 BTC or more, have taken a contrary direction, accumulating about US$3 billion in Bitcoin this month, raising their holdings to an impressive total of 76,000 BTC. This strategic move occurred mainly through purchases on Bitfinex, where Bitcoin was being traded at lower values, providing an opportunity to buy at advantageous prices compared to platforms like Binance and Coinbase. This accumulation trend seems to be deliberate preparation for the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, an event that has historically been a significant catalyst for Bitcoin price increases. Such behavior suggests a long-term view and raises concerns about the influence of whales on market stability.
 

Jan 10, 2024 - 6 mins 20 secs in.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of SEC's bitcoin ETF decision, latest market trends, the Fed's rate path decision, 2024 outlook, recession risk, and more.

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verce said:
Goldman Sachs are NOT fans of Bitcoin.

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I posted this about 4 years ago - it's funny how much the public perception has shifted - including on Wall Street.

"We believe that a security whose appreciation is primarily dependent on whether someone else is willing to pay a higher price for it is not a sutiable investment for our clients"

Isn't that how every security/commodity/asset works? When you think about it. :2twocents
 
That is true, however that security/commodity/asset's price is probably based on both reality (future income, capital gain) and emotion. Bitcoin is just the emotion of someone will pay more.
 
verce said:
I posted this about 4 years ago - it's funny how much the public perception has shifted - including on Wall Street.

"We believe that a security whose appreciation is primarily dependent on whether someone else is willing to pay a higher price for it is not a sutiable investment for our clients"

Isn't that how every security/commodity/asset works? When you think about it. :2twocents
Click to expand...

No, in investments you look to the asset it’s self to generate a return, you don't have to rely on some one else buying it from you at a higher price to make your return.

if you are relying on price action to make your return, that’s speculation not investment.

for example, let’s say you bought a dozen large farms and leased them to tenant farmers, and each year you earned lease payments from them. Your family could go generations without selling that asset and living off the income, that’s an investment, you might never ever check the price of the land. that’s what I mean by looking to the asset to make your return.

you can’t live off bitcoins like that.

but if you buy the farms hoping they go up next week that’s speculation not investment.

Now of course one day you might hope to sell the farms and make a capital gain, due to the value of the farm rising over time, but that’s still an investment, because it’s a productive asset.
 
BTC price (AUD) should, IMO, reach around $300k within the next 12 - 18 months. Then a 75% drop, as had happened in the past multiple times.
 
DB008 said:
BTC price (AUD) should, IMO, reach around $300k within the next 12 - 18 months. Then a 75% drop, as had happened in the past multiple times.
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As a long-term holder from 2017, I think 200k AUD is more realistic within 12-18 months. At least that's what my sell target is.

As for Ethereum, that one is worth holding a little longer to see how the potential Blackrock Ethereum ETF plays out.

However, in the long long run, the ideal approach is to just hold forever. The supply of Bitcoin is capped, and there will only be increasing demand over time. It's basic economics.
 
@DB008 did you see some of the rumours reported in the news about Jeff Bezos meeting with Michael Saylor over dinner, and possibly buying Bitcoin?

www.tradingview.com

Jeff Bezos Enters the Bitcoin Speculation Spotlight After Amazon Stock Sale

The cryptocurrency world is filled with speculation following several financial movements made by the founder of Amazon, Jeff Bezos, which have generated rumors that he might invest in Bitcoin. The chatter gained momentum after Apollo co-founder Thomas Fahrer hinted on X about Bezos’s recent activi…
www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
 
Na, but l did read that Bezos cashed out a large number of Amazon shares (your link above). Interesting times....
 
verce said:
However, in the long long run, the ideal approach is to just hold forever. The supply of Bitcoin is capped, and there will only be increasing demand over time. It's basic economics.
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Agreed 100%

IMO, if you put $100k into BTC right now and wait 3 halving cycles, you can retire.
 
DB008 said:
Agreed 100%

IMO, if you put $100k into BTC right now and wait 3 halving cycles, you can retire.
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I hope you are right!

In a portfolio, I think that at least 1% in Bitcoin is very important and makes sense. For a small amount of your capital, you have 'insurance' stored in what is hopefully a non-correlated asset to traditional financial markets. :xyxthumbs
 
Value Collector said:
No, in investments you look to the asset it’s self to generate a return, you don't have to rely on some one else buying it from you at a higher price to make your return.

if you are relying on price action to make your return, that’s speculation not investment.

for example, let’s say you bought a dozen large farms and leased them to tenant farmers, and each year you earned lease payments from them. Your family could go generations without selling that asset and living off the income, that’s an investment, you might never ever check the price of the land. that’s what I mean by looking to the asset to make your return.

you can’t live off bitcoins like that.

but if you buy the farms hoping they go up next week that’s speculation not investment.

Now of course one day you might hope to sell the farms and make a capital gain, due to the value of the farm rising over time, but that’s still an investment, because it’s a productive asset.
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So BTC = BRK? Cant live off BRK dividends.

Actually it would be be easier to buy food with BTC than a BRK share cert 😜
 
fiftyeight said:
So BTC = BRK? Cant live off BRK dividends.

Actually it would be be easier to buy food with BTC than a BRK share cert 😜
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Hey Mate, long time no see.

No, when it comes to Berkshire, it’s a huge conglomerate of businesses that generate cashflow, it uses this cashflow to keep getting larger every year and buying back shares, so over time its share price will just continue to grow.

So in that particular case, if you wish to live off berkshire you would just sell some shares each year, but your return is still based the performance of the underlying businesses. It’s just you are accessing this value by selling that organic grow each year. You aren’t simple hoping the share certificate goes up for no reason.

Bitcoin on the other hand doesn’t grow in size, it doesn’t generate cashflow, it just sits there, and you just hope it goes up in value but it has no real Intrinsic value itself.

imagine if Berkshire had no assets, it was an empty shell company that people traded stock certificates on, then it would be like Bitcoin.
 
Last edited:
Value Collector said:
Hey Mate, long time no see.

No, when it comes to Berkshire, it’s a huge conglomerate of businesses that generate cashflow, it uses this cashflow to keep getting larger every year and buying back shares, so over time its share price will just continue to grow.

So in that particular case, if you wish to live off berkshire you would just sell some shares each year, but your return is still based the performance of the underlying businesses. It’s just you are accessing this value by selling that organic grow each year. You aren’t simple hoping the share certificate goes up for no reason.

Bitcoin on the other hand doesn’t grow in size, it doesn’t generate cashflow, it just sits there, and you just hope it goes up in value but it has no real Intrinsic value itself.

imagine if Berkshire had no assets, it was an empty shell company that people traded stock certificates on, then it would be like Bitcoin.
Click to expand...

A huge conglomerate of businesses generating paper money they promise you will never see.

Trust us bro, we can all get rich together :D as long as we denominate at in $USD(-34 Trillion)

Good to be back VC
 

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