Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

[noirua]

Bitcoin miners say NY ban will be ineffective and ‘isolate’ the state

Bitcoin miners say the prospect of New York state banning mining for two years would see an exodus to other states. Many states welcome mining as an opportunity to increase tax revenue.

cointelegraph.com

Similarly, the CEO of Sweden-based White Rock Management digital asset miner Andy Long also feels that Bitcoin mining is “moving in the right direction toward fossil-free energy use,” as he stated in emailed comments to Cointelegraph.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

$30K BTC price has ‘severe impact’ on Bitcoin miner profits — analysis

Can higher BTC prices save Bitcoin miners from a profit crisis?

cointelegraph.com

Thanks for that @noirua .

Silly me, the price of electricity hadn't entered my head in relation to BTC price. I just saw it as a a trading vehicle similar to a Casino-at-home asset.

I do like the concept of blockchain, particularly ETH. It will hit outfits like ID8 and CBA if it survives and grows.

gg

 

[over9k]

Shakeout: During this stage of the cycle, growth rate delines and firms begin to compete directly with one another for market share, rather than capturing a share of an increasing pie. Weaker firms are forced out of the industry. Profit erodes and only the strongest and most efficient firms survive as increasing rivalry in the industry as firms begin to cut prices and offer more services to gain more market share. The importance of process innovation increases while the importance of product innovation declines.

 

[Trader X]

I'm calling a move down to the $25000 level.

Looking like a good call GG. BTC has broken down over the weekend, looks like $30k support was just a pause in the downtrend. From a technical standpoint, hard to suggest where support will kick in from here.

 

[bluekelah]

Bitcoin's "near-term volatility" will become quite relevant if MicroStrategy faces a margin call on it's highly leveraged Bitcoin position. Literally betting the house on one asset. If BTC did fall to $20k by year end that would mean MicroStrategy's 129,218 Bitcoins would be down over $1.3 Billion at the average purchase price of $30,700! A very "relevant" mark-to-market loss position. Saylor's hubris may yet be his downfall.

Microstrategy’s looming margin call​

" Chief financial officer Phong Le told investors last week that bitcoin sinking below $21,000 would trigger a margin call on that loan, though he stressed that Microstrategy could always funnel more bitcoin into the collateral package. That may be a way off yet, but Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, expects bitcoin to drop below $20,000 by the end of the year as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet."

Together with Cathie Woods , they are all charlatans having fun with OPM(other peoples money), modern day Bernie Madoffs.

If FED does the unthinkable hike to 3% rates and the system freezes up, its gonna be very interesting to see what happens.

 

[Trader X]

Together with Cathie Woods , they are all charlatans having fun with OPM(other peoples money), modern day Bernie Madoffs.

If FED does the unthinkable hike to 3% rates and the system freezes up, its gonna be very interesting to see what ha

I tend to regard the Cathie Woods and Michael Saylor types as modern day pied pipers that come to prominence while the trends they promote and exploit are on a roll. Charismatic people who attract followers using clever turn of phrase, grandiose metaphors and overly optimistic predictions to convince people to invest in what they're promoting. When the music stops they will still be multi-millionaires while those who followed their advice will be left holding the pixie dust they were peddling. As the crypto speculative tide recedes, the hubris and egos of those who boldly claimed dematerialized, decentralized digital ledger entries were digital gold and the road to riches will be humbled.

 

[noirua]

 

[sptrawler]

Sounds as though there is trouble afoot, or crypto is following the wobbling share market.

Cryptocurrencies tumble as lending platform Celsius blocks withdrawals

US-based Celsius, which had issued a statement less than a week ago lashing critics and declaring “full speed ahead”, has changed its tune.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Leading cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ether have dived after a cryptocurrency lending company that had promised huge returns to punters abruptly froze withdrawals, citing market volatility.

In a statement posted online on Monday, US-based Celsius has told its 1.8 million customers that it was immediately suspending withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts because of “extreme market conditions”.
“We are taking this necessary action for the benefit of our entire community in order to stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets,” reads the statement from Celsius, which was valued at $US3.25 billion ($4.6 billion) in a capital raise late last year.
It said it had "valuable assets", was working to meet commitments, and customers would continue to accrue "awards" during the freeze.

Celsius’ move echoes the recent collapse of another cryptocurrency project known as Terra/Luna. While the two differ in many respects, they are similar in that many people bought into Terra/Luna because they could access interest rates of 20 per cent. Celsius offers up to 18 per cent annualised interest for deposits of some tokens and time periods on its platform.
Even as it froze withdrawals, Celsius was still promising users elsewhere on its site that they could "swap or withdraw your crypto at any time, with no fees" and that they were "safe forever".

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sounds as though there is trouble afoot, or crypto is following the wobbling share market.

Cryptocurrencies tumble as lending platform Celsius blocks withdrawals

US-based Celsius, which had issued a statement less than a week ago lashing critics and declaring “full speed ahead”, has changed its tune.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Leading cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ether have dived after a cryptocurrency lending company that had promised huge returns to punters abruptly froze withdrawals, citing market volatility.

In a statement posted online on Monday, US-based Celsius has told its 1.8 million customers that it was immediately suspending withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts because of “extreme market conditions”.
“We are taking this necessary action for the benefit of our entire community in order to stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets,” reads the statement from Celsius, which was valued at $US3.25 billion ($4.6 billion) in a capital raise late last year.
It said it had "valuable assets", was working to meet commitments, and customers would continue to accrue "awards" during the freeze.

Celsius’ move echoes the recent collapse of another cryptocurrency project known as Terra/Luna. While the two differ in many respects, they are similar in that many people bought into Terra/Luna because they could access interest rates of 20 per cent. Celsius offers up to 18 per cent annualised interest for deposits of some tokens and time periods on its platform.
Even as it froze withdrawals, Celsius was still promising users elsewhere on its site that they could "swap or withdraw your crypto at any time, with no fees" and that they were "safe forever".

I would say there are many nervous holders of Bitcoin and other crypto as we head in to evening and the US in to morning.

The crash of BTC would remove some of the "quantative easing" i.e. printed money from the system and in to metals, oil, commodities and the general market.

This in fact may be good for the markets, and for working families with a well managed mortgage, although crime and the price of illicit drugs may skyrocket, and housing will still be hanging like a shag on a rock waiting to be knocked down.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

a cryptocurrency lending company that had promised huge returns to punters abruptly froze withdrawals.

Where have I heard that before ?

 

[greggles]

Bitcoin (and other cryptos) getting absolutely smashed at the moment. Short term I see the carnage continuing given that US futures are very deep in the red. I don't see any reason why Bitcoin won't get back to around $20,000 with support kicking in around its December 2017 peak.

Fortunes are being lost by those HODLing.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sounds as though there is trouble afoot, or crypto is following the wobbling share market.

Cryptocurrencies tumble as lending platform Celsius blocks withdrawals

US-based Celsius, which had issued a statement less than a week ago lashing critics and declaring “full speed ahead”, has changed its tune.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Leading cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ether have dived after a cryptocurrency lending company that had promised huge returns to punters abruptly froze withdrawals, citing market volatility.

In a statement posted online on Monday, US-based Celsius has told its 1.8 million customers that it was immediately suspending withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts because of “extreme market conditions”.
“We are taking this necessary action for the benefit of our entire community in order to stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets,” reads the statement from Celsius, which was valued at $US3.25 billion ($4.6 billion) in a capital raise late last year.
It said it had "valuable assets", was working to meet commitments, and customers would continue to accrue "awards" during the freeze.

Celsius’ move echoes the recent collapse of another cryptocurrency project known as Terra/Luna. While the two differ in many respects, they are similar in that many people bought into Terra/Luna because they could access interest rates of 20 per cent. Celsius offers up to 18 per cent annualised interest for deposits of some tokens and time periods on its platform.
Even as it froze withdrawals, Celsius was still promising users elsewhere on its site that they could "swap or withdraw your crypto at any time, with no fees" and that they were "safe forever".

It is not just tradies and maddies who are caught up in the Crypto madness, in particular with Celsius.

CDQP a major Pension Fund out of Montreal, similar to the Industry Super Funds advertised on the televisions going up escalators here in Australia, although much larger. Anyways CDQP plonked $300m. in to Celsius recently.

They like others will not be able to withdraw.

The Crypto team at the hotel were searching the Financial Times library for Celsius and found an interesting article from last October.

Canada’s second-largest pension fund has said its inaugural investment in the digital asset sector reflects a belief that blockchain technology will shake up the financial industry, even as cryptocurrencies attract mounting regulatory scrutiny. Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec (CDPQ), the US$300bn Canadian pension fund manager, on Tuesday joined WestCap, the fund set up by former Airbnb and Blackstone executive Laurence Tosi, in leading a funding round for Celsius Network — a crypto lending platform that has been targeted by US state regulators who say it has breached securities laws. Alexandre Synnett, executive vice-president and chief technology officer at CDPQ, said he expected that taking a stake in Celsius despite the regulatory pressure might appear unusual. “We knew from the beginning of this investment that we would have questions,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times.

There will be fun and games in Montreal as they wake up this morning.

Let us hope that none of our escalator Industry Super Funds have not joined the party of tears.

Disclosure : I never use escalators, as climbing stairs is good exercise.

gg

 

[waterbottle]

It is not just tradies and maddies who are caught up in the Crypto madness, in particular with Celsius.

CDQP a major Pension Fund out of Montreal, similar to the Industry Super Funds advertised on the televisions going up escalators here in Australia, although much larger. Anyways CDQP plonked $300m. in to Celsius recently.

They like others will not be able to withdraw.

The Crypto team at the hotel were searching the Financial Times library for Celsius and found an interesting article from last October.



There will be fun and games in Montreal as they wake up this morning.

Let us hope that none of our escalator Industry Super Funds have not joined the party of tears.

Disclosure : I never use escalators, as climbing stairs is good exercise.

gg

Holy ****...

Legitimate institutions actually bought this crap?!

This is a disaster...

 

[waterbottle]

Total market cap of crypto is now less than $1 trillion. To date there's been $2 trillion lost. And now we have news that pension funds were involved in this crap?

This is the pretext to the GFC. Trades being made in unregulated and private markets. And now the tide is heading out. Who's going to cover the losses? How are they going to cover their losses? By liquidating other assets i.e equities in favour fixed income products?

This will have implications for global markets. Personally there is to much contagion here to ignore a spillover into the "real world".

 

[Trader X]

Legitimate institutions actually bought this crap?!

Incredibly yes.

"Just 8 months ago Canada’s 2nd largest pension fund CDPQ and Westcap were touting the due diligence they had done before investing in Celsius ($400M USD) “We are very careful . . . our DD process is very serious”

Crypto Lender Celsius Stops Withdrawals, Fuels Market Slump
"Doubts about the sky-high yields backing products such as those Celsius offers have intensified after the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May, and as tighter monetary policy across the world curbs demand for riskier assets. The CEL token promises “actual financial rewards,” including as much as 30% extra returns weekly, according to its website.

While the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin captured most of the market’s attention, one of the project’s main attractions for investors had been its promised interest rate, set as high as 20% for UST deposits in the Terra blockchain-based lending project Anchor. Celsius was an investor in the project. Both revolve around the promise of super-high yields to keep up demand, which itself depended on a steady flow of new entrants feeding the system, or borrowing to pay the high rates."

Ponzi scheme perhaps? "A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors." Madoff would have no doubt been impressed.

Getting uncomfortably close to that $21k margin call for MicroStrategy.

 

[qldfrog]

Incredibly yes.

"Just 8 months ago Canada’s 2nd largest pension fund CDPQ and Westcap were touting the due diligence they had done before investing in Celsius ($400M USD) “We are very careful . . . our DD process is very serious”

Crypto Lender Celsius Stops Withdrawals, Fuels Market Slump
"Doubts about the sky-high yields backing products such as those Celsius offers have intensified after the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May, and as tighter monetary policy across the world curbs demand for riskier assets. The CEL token promises “actual financial rewards,” including as much as 30% extra returns weekly, according to its website.

While the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin captured most of the market’s attention, one of the project’s main attractions for investors had been its promised interest rate, set as high as 20% for UST deposits in the Terra blockchain-based lending project Anchor. Celsius was an investor in the project. Both revolve around the promise of super-high yields to keep up demand, which itself depended on a steady flow of new entrants feeding the system, or borrowing to pay the high rates."

Ponzi scheme perhaps? "A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors." Madoff would have no doubt been impressed.

Getting uncomfortably close to that $21k margin call for MicroStrategy.

we are there so is Micro Strategy toast this week?

 

[bluekelah]

we are there so is Micro Strategy toast this week?

apparently during the last crypto correction couple months back they stated that they had enough capital/funds to cover their margin obligations even at 20k BTC price. Whether or not that is true we will find out pretty soon as BTC is now 22k and despite technicals saying support will be at 19-20k previous peak, IMO when the herd exits its gonna overshoot to the downside, especially for a crazy asset like crypto.

Whatever mayhem ensues, i am sure this will give regulators a very good excuse to walk back whatever concessions they have given to the crypto sector and possibly regulate it to death. For crypto banks there will be no bail in or bail out unfortunately..

I have a saying, - Virtual currencies and worth virtually nothing...

 

[Trader X]

we are there so is Micro Strategy toast this week?

MicroStategy's share price is certainly being torched because it's predominantly a Bitcoin holding company now. They can cover margin by pledging additional uncollateralized BTC. MS is now down over a billion dollars on it's Bitcoin play but since Saylor primarily used OPM to fund Bitcoin accumulation he can continue to hodl at the expense of others. A bit like Nero, he will watch the place burn down rather than admit he was wrong about the future of dematerialized gold.

Recent Saylor Twitter quote...
"MicroStrategy has a $205M term loan and needs to maintain $410M as collateral. $MSTR has 115,109 BTC that it can pledge. If the price of #BTC falls below $3,562 the company could post some other collateral."

 

[over9k]

 

[bluekelah]

MicroStategy's share price is certainly being torched because it's predominantly a Bitcoin holding company now. They can cover margin by pledging additional uncollateralized BTC. MS is now down over a billion dollars on it's Bitcoin play but since Saylor primarily used OPM to fund Bitcoin accumulation he can continue to hodl at the expense of others. A bit like Nero, he will watch the place burn down rather than admit he was wrong about the future of dematerialized gold.

Recent Saylor Twitter quote...
"MicroStrategy has a $205M term loan and needs to maintain $410M as collateral. $MSTR has 115,109 BTC that it can pledge. If the price of #BTC falls below $3,562 the company could post some other collateral."

BTC now 21.8k, other than microstrat, there are a lot of other BTC investors starting to face margin calls now as everything in crypto starts to unwind. Binance had a big hiccup in transactions overnight as well, now its fixed but will just mean the sell down becomes faster.

Stocks wise coinbase has gone from 350+ to 52 as of trading close last night.

Its dotcom crash all over again.