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Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

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Wysiwyg said:
How soon is the morning news "Bitcoin crashes 50% overnight". Really, what type of people take on such risk? I can't see Neville No Idea throwing their yearly savings at it.
Click to expand...
Lordy, lordy. Hanging onto my every word.
 
This seems far too volatile to me given that it's supposed to be a currency.

Suppose that someone sold their house a few days ago and agreed t payment in Bitcoin, the agreed price being 39 Bitcoins.

The buyer could easily hedge their position, just buy Bitcoins on the day the contract was signed, but the seller will be losing quite a bit of sleep since what they thought was going to be AUD $1 million is now just $700K and could be pretty much anything by the time settlement takes place. Needless to say there's no chance the buyer will be letting them out of that contract!

It's just far too volatile to use as a medium of exchange for real goods and services of significant value so far as I'm concerned. I see real potential in the technology though, just not this current use as an incredibly volatile currency.
 
As the title is Bitcoin Discussion and Analysis Ill post this here.
Hopefully we will get some meaningful discussion and less
of this reactive " Henny Penny The Sky is falling " stuff!!

So after a very volatile session I think BITCOIN has shown a
strong area of support. certainly in the shorter term.
As an introduction to

Control volume. (C)
It has more clout the longer the time frame.

Here I look at 2 Time frames both 4 hr bars
One is a 2 week chart and the other a 4 day chart.

The 2 week charts shows strong support.
The 4 day chart shows how hard it is going to be for Bitcoin to
make new highs.
Si I think we have found a top for quite a while as Accumulation
and distribution fight it out.

The levels are very clear. Anything lower and sustained below $17500 AU
is very weak---but as can be seen value seems to appear to the big end of
town at these levels.




4 day chart


 
So lets have a look at a few others.

BCASH

As expected seeing its big brother is similar



Ethereum is doing very well and showing strength in support.



Ripple not as strong as Erthereum but not as weak as Bitcoin and Bcash



 
And finally an example of how a very high volume and range bar influences price over time.

Bitcoin Daily

 
Hey tech why are you looking at BTC mkts charts? They just track bitfinex (mostly) which does 50-100x more volume. (5-10k/hr vs 100s)
 
Contract Unit 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
Price Quotation USD per BTC
Trading Hours CME Globex: Sunday - Friday 6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. CT)
CME ClearPort: Sunday - Friday 6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. CT)
Minimum Price Fluctuation $5.00 per bitcoin=$25.00
Product Code CME Globex: BTC
CME ClearPort: BTC
Clearing: BTC
Listed Contracts Monthly contracts listed for the nearest 2 months in the March quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 serial months not in the March quarterly cycle.
Settlement Method Financially Settled
Termination Of Trading Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month. If that day is not a business day in both the UK and the US, trading terminates on the preceding day that is a business day for both the UK and the US.



CME EQUITY INDEX BITCOIN FUTURES BTC 01/2018 01/2018
MAINTENANCE MARGIN $30,391 USD
Maintenance vol 90.000%


Thought I would post for anyone interested , with a spare $30k
 
sptrawler said:
It is amazing, but what are you buying?
Click to expand...

Same as AUD, but this is online. What's the difference?

Currency to buy things online, digital age
You own it, not the Government
It is decentralized
I can pay anyone with a wallet/address, anywhere in the world for fractions of a cent, quickly
 
I must be honest and I'm really having trouble, getting my head around it.
I feel like I would be just getting sucked into a gigantic whirlpool, of hype and promise, with no underlying substance.
I know there is no underlying substance with the fiat system, but there is an underlying confidence in its sustainability, as all the Governments work under its regulation.
I also know the U.S has undermined that confidence with the consolidated debt fiasco and the sub prime loans.
Also the U.S has further undermined the fiat system, by abusing its status as the reserve currency and forcing up value of linked currencies, thereby reducing their competitiveness.
However, it still is the system of choice, I can't go to the pub and pay 0.000001 of a bitcoin for a schooner.
I can't go to Woolies and when it says are you paying in cash or card, it doesn't say or bitcoin or a derivative.
I just can't see how it will be a goer, unless the governments start recognising it as a currency, if they do then it will really fly.
It just seems like the big mac currency valuation of a few years ago, with much more underlying code and algorithm behind it.
 
I guess the other problem is, how many crypto currencies can be generated? is it regulated in any way, or are they only limited by the the programming skills, and computer capacity?
So how does mainstream cope with new crypto currencies, at the shop level?
I want to pay in bitcoin, ripple, bitcoin lite or some new one that comes out next week.
It just seems a bit weird.
 
Heard that E*TRADE - 35 years in existence, fewer concurrent users than 3 year old Bittrex.
 
greggles said:
Bitcoin starting to look a little unwell. Is the party over?
Click to expand...

I doubt it, I think this ponzi scheme is too well designed and run to just have one peak and crash. I think it will go again and milk some more suckers.
 
galumay said:
I doubt it, I think this ponzi scheme is too well designed and run to just have one peak and crash. I think it will go again and milk some more suckers.
Click to expand...
I suspect you're probably correct galumay.

As expected, John McAfee has an excuse for the plunge. Perhaps he's right?

 
It did something similar when it hit $1000 a few years back I think. I vaguely remember it dropping big time then as well.
It can be hard to tell where the bottoms will be.The true believers are staying fast.
 
The whole point of a currency is to be a medium of exchange.

Would anyone sign a contract priced in Bitcoin and requiring payment at a future date? House or car purchase, employment, anything of significant value?

I seriously doubt it. An AUD $500K property could end up being sold for anything from $ millions to loose change by the time settlement occurs which is way too uncertain for any normal vendor or buyer. Even the local servo wouldn’t go near it because the price of fuel in Bitcoin could change significantly between when I picked up the nozzle and went into the shop to pay for the fuel.

It’s just too volatile for its intended use in my view. Nothing wrong with speculating on it though.
 
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