BHP - BHP Group
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Forgot to add - There are various views here about where the low might be for BHP and when to get back in. If the down trend of the past weeks is to continue I have no idea as to when that time might be.
I have no idea how to do this but maybe someone is interested in setting up a poll on where BHP will be in a month's time?
Just an idle Saturday morning thought....
I have no idea how to do this but maybe someone is interested in setting up a poll on where BHP will be in a month's time?
Just an idle Saturday morning thought....
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Hi Muschu, You seem to have left out the pressures from China against the merger. It may be safer, with China set to continue expansion, to drop this plan that will hurt BHP for many years ahead.
Garpal Gumnut
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I agree totally.
I was preparing a chart along the same lines. $23 then $16 or lower. If it goes far through $23 then its got no real support anywhere as this is the 61.8 retracement.
Thanks mate.
gg
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been a few on here calling $24 as the value entry level for the big ozzie boomer for quite a while (yt included) and much merriment ensued from incredulous LT holders to those suggestions.
But now that its virtually there am not so sure it will hold in this current economic climate.
BHP should have a great day on Monday owing to an 11% increase overnight on LSE. Should do something similar and move into $27 range.
BHP is looking better by the day to succeed with the RIO take over....next key date is 15/1/09 when Euro regulators vote on anti-competition concerns.
China is still experiencing good growth albeit it may drop to 8% or so...BHP is in the box seat to reap on-going strong revenues......great investment right now.....even more so with BHP/RIO combined revenues, operating synergies and massive footprint.
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Looking at the chart gfresh posted just above, it looks like BHP broke its major uptrend line, so a dip down to $20 or lower would not be off the cards, at least in the medium term.
But is anyone else willing to call a short term bottom? That $24 level looks fairly solid, I think I may buy in some on Monday and set a tight stop at around $23. This drop seems to be fairly similar to that drop in January and March this year, and the sharp rally in the time after those drops were very profitable (+25% or so). I suspect if it holds, a rise back up to the $30 price range may occur, going by the previous rallies.
Looks like a reasonable trading opportunity. Anyone else got any thoughts?
But is anyone else willing to call a short term bottom? That $24 level looks fairly solid, I think I may buy in some on Monday and set a tight stop at around $23. This drop seems to be fairly similar to that drop in January and March this year, and the sharp rally in the time after those drops were very profitable (+25% or so). I suspect if it holds, a rise back up to the $30 price range may occur, going by the previous rallies.
Looks like a reasonable trading opportunity. Anyone else got any thoughts?
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The thing is Rick, nobody here knows. It's simply probabilities, which again, everybody determines through different techniques. So a poll would really be useless, you have to work out which techniques you 'trust' or think have the highest probability using. Always place a stop, below a recent low or even an arbitary 8% or so.
A poll would be useless as it would simply be a consensus of ASF sentiment, which would probably be more useful fading (trading against). So if a vast majority are bearish, go long.
I would dare to say most here just have a wild 'guess' without much useful analysis. Not pointing out anybody inparticular.
If you want probably the most simple method which is also probably the most useful IMHO, look for a higher low and a higher high. Signals a change in trend. Easy. Don't need EW counts to see a trend change when you can simply look for a HL, HH. Most of the best traders on the planet I have seen use something so simple. Nothing esoteric about it.
Perhaps even just a low which forms on HUGE volume and narrow ranges or a huge spike down on high volume followed by a spike up on high volume (also known as a 'pipe bottom'). Even a gap down, followed by a huge candle or gap back up (also known as an island reversal or a bullish engulfing). There are other candle patterns you can use also, but are probably pointless (except for maybe a hammer on high volume). All these on a daily chart and all are probably the most useful IMHO. There are sites like stockcharts or bulkowskis (similar spelling), which you can use to learn these patterns very very simply. It is not hard and anybody can learn in far less time than they spend perusing ASF.
Remember, in times like this, ALWAYS USE A STOP. You don't have to have a conditional order in, just make a mental stop if that's all you have on your E-trade account and when it hits that point, USE IT! Don't think twice. This will stop HUGE losses like some are incurring at the moment.
Just a few comments for a lot of the questions I see around ASF in times like these. There is no guarantee, just minimising risk and enhancing probabilities, that is all this game is about.
Another quick comment, there is little value IMHO except for a fun element, in trying to pre-determine a bottom. Just wait until it looks like one with one of the patterns above. Could be at $5, could be now!
A poll would be useless as it would simply be a consensus of ASF sentiment, which would probably be more useful fading (trading against). So if a vast majority are bearish, go long.
I would dare to say most here just have a wild 'guess' without much useful analysis. Not pointing out anybody inparticular.
If you want probably the most simple method which is also probably the most useful IMHO, look for a higher low and a higher high. Signals a change in trend. Easy. Don't need EW counts to see a trend change when you can simply look for a HL, HH. Most of the best traders on the planet I have seen use something so simple. Nothing esoteric about it.
Perhaps even just a low which forms on HUGE volume and narrow ranges or a huge spike down on high volume followed by a spike up on high volume (also known as a 'pipe bottom'). Even a gap down, followed by a huge candle or gap back up (also known as an island reversal or a bullish engulfing). There are other candle patterns you can use also, but are probably pointless (except for maybe a hammer on high volume). All these on a daily chart and all are probably the most useful IMHO. There are sites like stockcharts or bulkowskis (similar spelling), which you can use to learn these patterns very very simply. It is not hard and anybody can learn in far less time than they spend perusing ASF.
Remember, in times like this, ALWAYS USE A STOP. You don't have to have a conditional order in, just make a mental stop if that's all you have on your E-trade account and when it hits that point, USE IT! Don't think twice. This will stop HUGE losses like some are incurring at the moment.
Just a few comments for a lot of the questions I see around ASF in times like these. There is no guarantee, just minimising risk and enhancing probabilities, that is all this game is about.
Another quick comment, there is little value IMHO except for a fun element, in trying to pre-determine a bottom. Just wait until it looks like one with one of the patterns above. Could be at $5, could be now!
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Is the fat lady starting to sing ?
Chill winds reach our fair shores
THE AGE SAT 18th
by John Garnaut , Beijing correspondent.
Commodities traders had piled up stocks expecting China's construction and heavy industry to burst back to life after the Olympics. Instead, the financial crisis reverberated around the world, stock piles were liquidated, and the five-year resources boom quickly turned to bust.
At Tangshan, the heart of China's steel industry, traders report that dozens of mills are going belly up and a third of blast furnaces have been shut down.
"This is the beginning," says MySteel analyst Xu Xiangchun. "So many steel companies have suddenly collapsed and more and more are running out of cash and will go the same way." For the benefit of an Australian audience, he adds: "This is very good for China in front of the upcoming contract price negotiations."
Traders who had been selling iron ore at about $US200 a tonne on the Tangshan spot market were this week struggling to make a sale at $US80. The Newcastle spot price for power-generating coal has plunged from nearly $US200 to $US110.
"No, I did not predict the carnage at the moment," says Jim Lennon, Macquarie Bank's respected head commodities analyst. "Last week was the first time since records began that the Chinese spot market price for iron ore went below the Australian long-term contract price. The freight market has imploded. We've declared force majeure on the global commodities super-cycle."
." Most of the hundreds of hopeful Australian mining companies that have sprung up at the tail end of the resources boom will not survive.
"A lot of the junior miners will run out of cash and go into liquidation as they will be unable to raise funds," says Linda Liu Bearne, an investment consultant whose clients include China International Capital Corporation, China's largest investment bank.
Andrew Forrest at Fortescue Metals Group also has a direct interest in the smoke that continues to bellow from the large blast furnaces at Delong. If they shut down he will have to find another buyer.
The two companies signed a long-term contract that helped place Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group on the investor map. But now, just five months after FMG's first cargo load arrived in China, Ding has sacked the hapless manager who signed the deal.
The Age believes that FMG contracted to arrange freight for the iron ore deliveries and pass the costs on to Delong Steel. FMG locked in the freight costs months ago, when freight rates were high.
But the deal now looks expensive because spot market iron ore and freight rates have collapsed and Ding's own customers are deserting him in droves. Ding wants FMG to wear the cost of expensive freight before agreeing to take more ore. FMG says they are flexible, and they might have no choice. "They contacted us yesterday but we have not renegotiated anything," says Graeme Rowley, executive director of operations at Fortescue metals.
A senior manager at Delong Steel, Lu Bing, says times are tough but all his 5000 workers remain fully employed. But worker and industry sources say about a third of them have been ordered to take unpaid leave and more will be stood down unless steel prices recover next week.
Delong's bankers are banging at the door. "It's the same for every steel mill in China and across the world," says Lu, the manager at Delong. "The big mills are all cutting production and lots of smaller mills are shutting down. No one knows how long this slump is going to take."
Marius Kloppers at BHP Billiton and Tom Albanese at Rio Tinto are also anxiously watching the smoke from China's largest blast furnaces.
Chinese statistics are often unreliable and the slide of China's steel industry has been so sudden that it is impossible to keep pace. Delong, for example, has been laying off workers for nearly seven weeks but nobody outside the village seems to know.
With BHP's value down 39% this year and Rio down 53% , both companies need faster ways to gauge how far this resources slump might go.
Last week a team from Rio quietly fanned out across China to survey the mills and see how many of China's high-cost iron ore mines are shutting down.
Plenty more bad news to come imo
iam jumping on the fence !
for the whole article check this link
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...20081017-539t.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Chill winds reach our fair shores
THE AGE SAT 18th
by John Garnaut , Beijing correspondent.
Commodities traders had piled up stocks expecting China's construction and heavy industry to burst back to life after the Olympics. Instead, the financial crisis reverberated around the world, stock piles were liquidated, and the five-year resources boom quickly turned to bust.
At Tangshan, the heart of China's steel industry, traders report that dozens of mills are going belly up and a third of blast furnaces have been shut down.
"This is the beginning," says MySteel analyst Xu Xiangchun. "So many steel companies have suddenly collapsed and more and more are running out of cash and will go the same way." For the benefit of an Australian audience, he adds: "This is very good for China in front of the upcoming contract price negotiations."
Traders who had been selling iron ore at about $US200 a tonne on the Tangshan spot market were this week struggling to make a sale at $US80. The Newcastle spot price for power-generating coal has plunged from nearly $US200 to $US110.
"No, I did not predict the carnage at the moment," says Jim Lennon, Macquarie Bank's respected head commodities analyst. "Last week was the first time since records began that the Chinese spot market price for iron ore went below the Australian long-term contract price. The freight market has imploded. We've declared force majeure on the global commodities super-cycle."
." Most of the hundreds of hopeful Australian mining companies that have sprung up at the tail end of the resources boom will not survive.
"A lot of the junior miners will run out of cash and go into liquidation as they will be unable to raise funds," says Linda Liu Bearne, an investment consultant whose clients include China International Capital Corporation, China's largest investment bank.
Andrew Forrest at Fortescue Metals Group also has a direct interest in the smoke that continues to bellow from the large blast furnaces at Delong. If they shut down he will have to find another buyer.
The two companies signed a long-term contract that helped place Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group on the investor map. But now, just five months after FMG's first cargo load arrived in China, Ding has sacked the hapless manager who signed the deal.
The Age believes that FMG contracted to arrange freight for the iron ore deliveries and pass the costs on to Delong Steel. FMG locked in the freight costs months ago, when freight rates were high.
But the deal now looks expensive because spot market iron ore and freight rates have collapsed and Ding's own customers are deserting him in droves. Ding wants FMG to wear the cost of expensive freight before agreeing to take more ore. FMG says they are flexible, and they might have no choice. "They contacted us yesterday but we have not renegotiated anything," says Graeme Rowley, executive director of operations at Fortescue metals.
A senior manager at Delong Steel, Lu Bing, says times are tough but all his 5000 workers remain fully employed. But worker and industry sources say about a third of them have been ordered to take unpaid leave and more will be stood down unless steel prices recover next week.
Delong's bankers are banging at the door. "It's the same for every steel mill in China and across the world," says Lu, the manager at Delong. "The big mills are all cutting production and lots of smaller mills are shutting down. No one knows how long this slump is going to take."
Marius Kloppers at BHP Billiton and Tom Albanese at Rio Tinto are also anxiously watching the smoke from China's largest blast furnaces.
Chinese statistics are often unreliable and the slide of China's steel industry has been so sudden that it is impossible to keep pace. Delong, for example, has been laying off workers for nearly seven weeks but nobody outside the village seems to know.
With BHP's value down 39% this year and Rio down 53% , both companies need faster ways to gauge how far this resources slump might go.
Last week a team from Rio quietly fanned out across China to survey the mills and see how many of China's high-cost iron ore mines are shutting down.
Plenty more bad news to come imo
iam jumping on the fence !
for the whole article check this link
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...20081017-539t.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Just remember though that if the t/o fails the ratio will change the other way, as there is a t/o premium in rio's price and a t/o charge to bhp's.
gg
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So if it fails, BHP's price will fall and RIO's price will go up? I thought it would go down, as there will be ppl buying RIO atm due to the profit they'd make if the t/o goes through...
Now MRC, I really need you to know otherwise I have to work things out for myself..... That's a bit much to ask isn't it?
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Now MRC, I really need you to know otherwise I have to work things out for myself..... That's a bit much to ask isn't it?
ha ha.
The thing is, you can really only see the basic trend of a stock from it's chart, and maybe some volume traits and patterns in the price action and get some idea if it looks ok or not. It's not until you see something very specific that you would actually enter (or even exit). Right now, I would not be buying BHP. But I definately feel a rally is on the way, which may present an opportunity if the chart presents itself right. Just have to learn what you are looking for. If you use somebody elses tip as your entry or even to convince yourself to enter, how do you know when to exit?
Value is definately starting to come into some of these commodity equities though, from a fundamental perspective IMHO.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Yes, so if the t/o fails RIO's price will come down and BHP will rise if the t/o fails.
There is a premium atm in rio's price due to the t/o, and a charge down to bhp's because of the costs involved, due diligence, dealing with governments, having to have meetings with kev07 and listening to him droning on and having to sit there when he is droning on and on, when we can just change to watching south park, and other intangible charges.
gg
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LOL! Maybe they could do a South Park episode where Kev07 makes an appearance, that should be more entertaining for the poor BHP exec's. The South Park creators wouldnt even need to do any extra drawing or animation for Kev07, they can just use pics of the Milky Bar Kid! :
:
Garpal Gumnut
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LOL! Maybe they could do a South Park episode where Kev07 makes an appearance, that should be more entertaining for the poor BHP exec's. The South Park creators wouldnt even need to do any extra drawing or animation for Kev07, they can just use pics of the Milky Bar Kid!
lol, we just have to let sussex st. allow cartman leave the nsw parliament and get a federal seat.
back to bhp though, its a fantastic company, I'll continue to accumulate on dips down to old support levels. It will recover.
if it doesn't australia is done for and kev07's guarantee of deposits will be for pesos and not aussie dollars.
gg
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BLT.L on the LSE rose but its ADR in New York fell 2.61% after London closed.
Expected open at $25.40 or a gain of 3.3% on Aus open.
Cheers
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BHP is starting to scare some of the "longer term" holders as it's price retraces closer to intrinsic values.
The question now is, will it overshoot on the downside, as much as it overshot on the upside.
jog on
duc
The question now is, will it overshoot on the downside, as much as it overshot on the upside.
jog on
duc
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Your pathetic analysis is available earlier in this thread for those interested.
Your contention is that you buy on high pes.
I will add more BHP on very low pes.
I am content to wait for markets to melt down significantly more.
I won't get into a debate with you about "intrinsic value" as we will never agree.
However, for those interested in BHP as an equity it is instructive to examine the price performance of BHP vis a vis other mining companies and other companies as a whole during this destructive market phase.
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Ducati,
If BHP is $8 or even $10 in my lifetime I will run around the block naked cause I won't have pants let alone a shirt on my back
Just as the commodity bubble has burst it will over deflate and resulting correction should not only reflect real world demand/consumption but add much needed long term certainty for our material export industry.
Energy consumption and construction has slowed not stopped and world wide population growth and hence demand will ensure it never doses.
I'm buying BHP through RIO on every down day.
If BHP is $8 or even $10 in my lifetime I will run around the block naked cause I won't have pants let alone a shirt on my back
Just as the commodity bubble has burst it will over deflate and resulting correction should not only reflect real world demand/consumption but add much needed long term certainty for our material export industry.
Energy consumption and construction has slowed not stopped and world wide population growth and hence demand will ensure it never doses.
I'm buying BHP through RIO on every down day.