BHP - BHP Group

[sardines]

Read a comment today that the junior exploration companies may suffer if commodities keep sinking since risk appetite for exploration funding will diminish. To me, that makes logical sense and is a positive for the large-cap miners since the weaker players scuttle away and die. It leaves the big boys less competition in the future and a chance to strengthen their line of projects on the cheap.

(I bought some RIO today...talk about catching a falling knife!)

 

[chops_a_must]

Read a comment today that the junior exploration companies may suffer if commodities keep sinking since risk appetite for exploration funding will diminish. To me, that makes logical sense and is a positive for the large-cap miners since the weaker players scuttle away and die. It leaves the big boys less competition in the future and a chance to strengthen their line of projects on the cheap.

(I bought some RIO today...talk about catching a falling knife!)

Yes, a lot of stories here about start ups about to fall over as they can't get funding.

Add to that, anecdotally, a whole heap of unskilled laborers have poured back onto the job market and it becomes pretty clear what is happening...

 

[noirua]

Read a comment today that the junior exploration companies may suffer if commodities keep sinking since risk appetite for exploration funding will diminish. To me, that makes logical sense and is a positive for the large-cap miners since the weaker players scuttle away and die. It leaves the big boys less competition in the future and a chance to strengthen their line of projects on the cheap.

(I bought some RIO today...talk about catching a falling knife!)

BHP should be able to pick up worthwhile mining companies, once medium size, for minnow prices.
Doubtful that they'll be interested in midget explorers as they wait for a company to find and usually develop something first.
As you may be inferring, in 5 to 7 years time, some won't believe the opportunity missed today.

 

[gazelle]

2875 approx should mark the low . Copy of my letter below

The 100pt rate cut lines up with critical time and price targets on BHP . From a technical perspective we have an intraday low at 2875 prior to the RBA decision to cut interest rates .

1 : Looking at the chart we can see price has completed a 100% range extension into 2875 . Volume indicates a heavy selloff into this low which could be a possible indication that selling pressure has expired into this point .

2 : Time has ran out approx 90 weeks from which is 1/4 of the circle from 12th January 2007 Primary Low at 23.88 .
I was initially looking for a change around the 10th October on the All Ordinaries index but individual stocks have a tendency to lead the broad index depending at which point their short or larger term cycles expire .

With the Time Factor complete I believe there is a strong chance that BHP will mark lows at 2875 and rally back up .
I will be watching the overnight chart and the 3 day swing chart for confirmation . Buy BHP on weakness as long as it holds above 2875 it is in a tehnically strong position .

 

[Sunburnt Land]

Picked up some BHP when it dipped below $30 late last week. Will continue to top up my holding on any further weakness. I couldn't care less if it drops back below $30, down to $25, or even lower. I'll keep chasing this one down all the way.

 

[gazelle]

Be Careful Sunburnt otherwise you might break out in a rash .
Dont average your position down for this is a fools game .
Irrespective of my analysis and the underlying fundamental position of BHP always use sensible stops and a balanced position sizing model otherwise you will come unstuck very quickly for the market doesnt always conform to your pre conceptualized ideals .

 

[Sean K]

Be Careful Sunburnt otherwise you might break out in a rash .
Dont average your position down for this is a fools game .
Irrespective of my analysis and the underlying fundamental position of BHP always use sensible stops and a balanced position sizing model otherwise you will come unstuck very quickly for the market doesnt always conform to your pre conceptualized ideals .

Although we can't give investment advice here, this is good advice....lol

Crasing things down a slippery slope, no matter how confident you are in their business is fraught with danger. This approach might work some of the time with solid companies in growth areas, but it's hardly a sure fire way to maintain your capital.

Good luck.

 

[Whiskers]

Went 'that' close to picking up some BHP this arvo... thinking they're hit bottom for awhile... but went back to one of my other favourite stocks instead.

With commodity prices making a bit of a recovery overnight so far it looks a chance of making another dollar or two.

Knew I shouldn't have slept in... coulda got'em cheap in the mornin.

 

[mayk]

Had a look at it, but it has failed to hold anything in the past. Why are u giving it credibility now? I have the 200Week moving average at $29.83, Also, the 200-month SMA is at $13 :

So you are saying that we can go to as low as 13? That is pretty nasty, it will mean negative growth in Chindia? Can it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Probably not.

Still I think touching price levels of 24 , and maybe 22 is a real possibility.

Can some T/A guru, post a complete fib analysis with all the retracement possibilities?

Any comments on merger with RIO the raio of 3.4:1 is far off at current prices, is this telling us something?

 

[skyQuake]

So you are saying that we can go to as low as 13? That is pretty nasty, it will mean negative growth in Chindia? Can it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Probably not.

Still I think touching price levels of 24 , and maybe 22 is a real possibility.

Can some T/A guru, post a complete fib analysis with all the retracement possibilities?

Any comments on merger with RIO the raio of 3.4:1 is far off at current prices, is this telling us something?

Haha dont have targets that low, was just pointing out that the moving averages never did anything useful for BHP and where their current values are.

From my experience, fibs don't work too well on BHP (maybe its just cause it never retracts that far). We are at 50% of retractment of rally from 03. This would explain the buying support...

Cheers

 

[Whiskers]

This is my take on BHP... a bit controversial, but I'm getting increasingly confident that it's in a very similar EW position to the XAO... about to rebound substantially, probably to revisit 50 and theoritically wace c could go as far as the low 60's.

Took a long position in another, since I slept in yesterday, but it should reach it's target in a couple of days... in time to move across here.

 

[mayk]

Thanks SkyQuake and whiskers.

I appreciate the effort. The current obvious trend is down, short term.

 

[Tysonboss1]

This is my take on BHP... a bit controversial, but I'm getting increasingly confident that it's in a very similar EW position to the XAO... about to rebound substantially, probably to revisit 50 and theoritically wace c could go as far as the low 60's.

Took a long position in another, since I slept in yesterday, but it should reach it's target in a couple of days... in time to move across here.

that would be nice,.... $50< it's certainly been interesting the last month or so..............................

 

[Whiskers]

that would be nice,.... $50< it's certainly been interesting the last month or so..............................

Certainly would be nice.

Be interesting to see tech/a's software assisted take. We,ve had different counts, but the trend going in the same direction before. He's mentioned in the XAO thread that he might post it soon.

 

[Sean K]

If 3400 XAO is a possibility perhaps picking up BHP at $24 is a chance too.

Or, maybe a recovery will take too long to bother....

 

[dhukka]

If 3400 XAO is a possibility perhaps picking up BHP at $24 is a chance too.

Or, maybe a recovery will take too long to bother....

Could be, but I tell you what isn't a chance, BHP hitting $60 anytime in the near future. BHP has seen its highs for a couple of years IMO.

 

[treefrog]

Still I think touching price levels of 24 , and maybe 22 is a real possibility.

Can some T/A guru, post a complete fib analysis with all the retracement possibilities?

use fib levels mayk but hardly guru status - probably as many fib takes as there are EW takes - nar, couldn't be!

I take refs from start and end of an obvious run and try to omit periods of consolidation

as for the projected possible targets using the most obvious abc points being $50:00, $35:88, $42:17 we get first target of 33.44 (downer stalled here which is also 38% retrace of main UPleg), then $28:04 (trying to clear this area now after pausing briefly at 50% retrace of UPleg) and final target of $19:32

have previously posted that I also like Kenny's $24 level. besides the obvious strong historical S/R here, it is also the 62% fib retrace of the main UPleg - significant for mine

 

[marcadrian]

You can show me as much techanalysis as you like - BHP won't be anywhere up near $60 for a long time. Credit will be hard to come by for a few years yet while people/Gocts/banks sort their **** out and without big leverage we won't see $60.

 

[Mr_T]

Not sure what universe some people here are living here. BHP is at 25.50 and falling. $60??? You gotta be kidding.

 

[peteai]

Yeh it would seem crazy now - but then when BHP hit $50 a few months ago most would have said $25 was history never to repeat for BHP.

Also remember China & India are still growing still requiring more resources ....the market can be insane at times in either direction & is unpredictable ..