BHP - BHP Group

[ShareIt]

Yes, I can see your point (I actually came to very similar conclusions). But risk either way to me is relatively equal (though I add analysis of the XMJ to this regarding the long side), long or short (hence I did not take the trade, no confluence here). The close was well above resistance/support, which is positive, however the next few days will be crucial.

The decreasing volume over the last few months is EXTREMELLY worrying for this breakout and why I did not take the trade.

RSI definately only confirmation. MACD, don't use it.

Yeah, I find breakouts really tough these days because a lot of them turn out to be up fakes.... my rule of thumb, never chase the breakout.... MOST cases it always comes back to that level for testing where it broke out... if it holds well then buy

About BHP, it will probably hold up for a while, but it wouldn't suprise me if it cracks and heads down to $42 ish

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeah, I find breakouts really tough these days because a lot of them turn out to be up fakes.... my rule of thumb, never chase the breakout.... MOST cases it always comes back to that level for testing where it broke out... if it holds well then buy

About BHP, it will probably hold up for a while, but it wouldn't suprise me if it cracks and heads down to $42 ish

Yes, I have been waiting for consolidation back at the breakout level to buy also. Perfect example right now, MCR. I've got my eyes firmly locked on this one.

This is definately an extremelly hard chart to read for me. I also expect some type of consolidation, either around the previous high, or could retrace all the way to around $42 where it should find strong support. However, would have to see some capitulation of the XMJ which is the absolute bull of the XAO!

 

[ShareIt]

Yes, I have been waiting for consolidation back at the breakout level to buy also. Perfect example right now, MCR. I've got my eyes firmly locked on this one.

This is definately an extremelly hard chart to read for me. I also expect some type of consolidation, either around the previous high, or could retrace all the way to around $42 where it should find strong support. However, would have to see some capitulation of the XMJ which is the absolute bull of the XAO!

just had a look at MCR, looks like it is in the pullback phase... i would look to buy this at the 200 MA ($3.53).... it should find some really good support there... it might dip below the 200 MA as a possible fake to the downside, but i would still hold my long if this is the case.

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, long-term MAs are something I do not use in my trading, despite having read several strategies using them.

I am looking for a consolidation around the 3.40 area on MCR, and a micro pattern to trade.

Of course, none may ever come about and it may head right back down (looking the case at the moment), it was just an example, KZL is in a similar situation now, just approaching resistance, however these type of consolidations are probably more probable when at all-time highs anyways.

We have digressed, back to BHP.

US looking good accross most segments tonight (except energy) on expected CPI news (which must have been better than expectations ) and decent oil inventories. Perhaps a bad sign for BHP.

 

[ShareIt]

Yeh, long-term MAs are something I do not use in my trading, despite having read several strategies using them.

I am looking for a consolidation around the 3.40 area on MCR, and a micro pattern to trade.

Of course, none may ever come about and it may head right back down (looking the case at the moment), it was just an example, KZL is in a similar situation now, just approaching resistance, however these type of consolidations are probably more probable when at all-time highs anyways.

We have digressed, back to BHP.

US looking good accross most segments tonight (except energy) on expected CPI news (which must have been better than expectations ) and decent oil inventories. Perhaps a bad sign for BHP.

It tanked at the end (with heavy volume selling) and that is exactly what I expected... always happens on the options expiration before day... as for MAs, you would be very surprised how a stock acts around them for support or as resistance

 

[MRC & Co]

It tanked at the end (with heavy volume selling) and that is exactly what I expected... always happens on the options expiration before day... as for MAs, you would be very surprised how a stock acts around them for support or as resistance

Yeh, I have watched it numerous times, however it just does not fit my trading plan or set-ups. I have quiet a few and am testing them all against eachother. Accumulation/support and gap plays are seeing by far the best results for me.

What tanked as expected at the end on options expiration (BHP)? As far as seasonality, options expiration is generally a positive time for the market, historically, moving up more than down in those weeks.

I saw a study from Merrill Lynch over the period 1985-2000 which stated the stockmarket has outperformed in expiration weeks over that period. One of the reasons suggested is the generally bearish stance of options traders. Their unwinding of positions causes prices to rise. Generally works better when there is heavy put buying in relation to call buying. Of course, even more powerful in tripple witching weeks.

 

[ShareIt]

Yeh, I have watched it numerous times, however it just does not fit my trading plan or set-ups. I have quiet a few and am testing them all against eachother. Accumulation/support and gap plays are seeing by far the best results for me.

What tanked as expected at the end on options expiration (BHP)? As far as seasonality, options expiration is generally a positive time for the market, historically, moving up more than down in those weeks.

I saw a study from Merrill Lynch over the period 1985-2000 which stated the stockmarket has outperformed in expiration weeks over that period. One of the reasons suggested is the generally bearish stance of options traders. Their unwinding of positions causes prices to rise. Generally works better when there is heavy put buying in relation to call buying. Of course, even more powerful in tripple witching weeks.

Sorry, I was referring to the US markets.... they have option exp tomorrow (as do we) and they ususal fake to the up and then go down (or vice versa depending on the put to call ratio)... the thing is with options exp is that the market goes the opposite direction to the crowd... if there are too many calls on the market, then usually the index goes south... too many puts, index goes north.... basically the institutions want to collect the most premiums without having to pay up....

BHP looking to pullback as i called yesterday... will find some support on the rising channel line and make another move higher

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, though generally up.

Far better trades out there than BHP currently which looks indicisive to me.

Infact, a very good one came up today!

 

[mayk]

I am a bit confused, china is buying a stake in BHP,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aWl6.WZPMc7M&refer=australia

Is the recent price hike because of this?

 

[ShareIt]

Yeh, though generally up.

Far better trades out there than BHP currently which looks indicisive to me.

Infact, a very good one came up today!

BHP hit $50 and then the heavy volume selling came in so far.... but need a little more confirmation

 

[ShareIt]

I am a bit confused, china is buying a stake in BHP,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aWl6.WZPMc7M&refer=australia

Is the recent price hike because of this?

A lot of the news is already factored in once it hits the public... the price spikes is a way that the big institutions pound the stock off to the little guy who has just heard the news and that is the "driving factor".... I usually stay away from news unless you are close friends with the CEO

 

[mayk]

Actually I entered BHP at the right time ( 36.70) , now I want a good exit. I will reenter when it will breath a little. Some news sources are saying chinese will buy it at around 53.00... So the question is what is a good exit. Hang in or lock in the profit. I hate decisions

 

[Fab]

If the Chinese are ready to buy at $53 then $49.90 is a good entry not a good exit.

 

[ShareIt]

Actually I entered BHP at the right time ( 36.70) , now I want a good exit. I will reenter when it will breath a little. Some news sources are saying chinese will buy it at around 53.00... So the question is what is a good exit. Hang in or lock in the profit. I hate decisions

I always say... don't be too greedy $50 is a great exit considering you bought a $36.... why risk the downside for an extra $3?

 

[bergers_n_fries]

as bhp dominates my portfolio at the moment i am sweating on a good exit price...i literally have no idea...my age is really showing

i bought around 38...held it up to 48...watched it fall with the crash earlier in the year...rebought around 36ish now its hit 50 odd

i would like to see some consolidation in the stock before i sell off...considering the stock is still getting widespread attention driving the increases im finding it difficult to muster the courage to sell

ahhh!!!!!

 

[overule]

Some news sources are saying chinese will buy it at around 53.00...

Do you have the link to that news ?
I believe this is just another speculation. The Chinese are not that stupid to tell the price they are willing to pay. This only makes the share price to shoot up.

Now is a good time to trade. All these depend on your decision.

 

[questionall_42]

Do you have the link to that news ?
I believe this is just another speculation. The Chinese are not that stupid to tell the price they are willing to pay. This only makes the share price to shoot up.

0936 [Dow Jones] Dealer expects BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) to lead S&P/ASX 200 at least 1% higher, tipping BHP could push through record A$50/share mark on renewed buying, noting report in The Australian newspaper that China could team with local superannuation fund and private equity fund to buy 9% stake in BHP "seems to push all the right buttons", with traders saying price tipped to be paid ranges from A$53 to A$60 per share

 

[MRC & Co]

For me exits are absolutely quintessential, and will define how a trader does over the long-term.

I would personally, in this case, place my stop around 47.50 for the moment. It is below the previous high, gives enough room for daily volatility and is below the gap which will act as support.

Good luck to all onboard!

 

[mayk]

I always say... don't be too greedy $50 is a great exit considering you bought a $36.... why risk the downside for an extra $3?

I am not being greedy, the thing is, I have just a nomargin account with my broker and once I sell the stock the money will be transferred after 3 days. I have done that before and most of the time in three days I am not in a better position....

But if it will go above $50, I will sell it...

 

[BSD]

For me exits are absolutely quintessential, and will define how a trader does over the long-term.

Others would say you make money buying well.

Those who bought around $10 at the start of the boom and have ignored all the negative signals (noise) since have now generated a 400% return on funds.

Beats sweating 2% swings in my view

Go the Big Australian