Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

Jump to new
Fab said:
I am getting conflicting information today on BHP. I heard on channel nine that BHP shares where down more than 4% in the US (I did not know they were listed there) and when I check their share price in London they went down only 0.41%. Bgi difference. I am wondering what that will mean for BHP opening today in the ASX. Probably down but will it be a lot down or just a bit :banghead:
Click to expand...

Hi Fab
It should have been 4.74% . Please see extract from Huntley's Newsletter published this morning. You already got the symbol from another post.
This morning BHP opended in ASX $44.23.

" For Australian ADRs listed on the NYSE, BHP Billiton fell $4.12 (4.74%) to $82.71, Rio Tinto Plc weakened $21.77 (4.25%) to $490.67, News Corporation dropped 25 cents (1.29%) to $19.20, ResMed shed 41 cents (1.01%) to $40.33, Telstra Corporation lost $1.00 (4.15%) to $21.02, Telecom Corporation of NZ dipped 70 cents (4.47%) to $14.96 and Westpac declined $7.64 (6.27%) to $114.28"
 
BHP on fire tonight, broke a psychological barrier on LON:BLT, 2000...

Will be a good day here in Austrlia. I think we might see an all time high price for this share soon on ASX too!

Reason seem to be BHP's CEO public disclosure that China is interested in a stake in BHP ( in coded words). But I guess, a win-win situation will be if china can have a 20% stake in a combined BHP-RIO company.
 
BHP is approaching 12 month high!

BHP $46.29 -$0.21 -0.45% with high today of $47.08 and low of $46.15 2,637,452 shares $122,787,515 @ 12-May 11:15:26

52-wk High 47.7000
52-wk Low 30.2900
 

Attachments

  • BHP May 12.gif
    BHP May 12.gif
    13 KB · Views: 263
What has spooked BHP today? Is Iron ore agreement with china on its way to announcement today? Or is it the circulating rumors of deal sweetening 3.8 :1 for RIO( as appeared in bloomberg today).

I had set a target of 48.70 quite a while ago, now it seems I have to move my exit point a little higer :)
 
mayk said:
What has spooked BHP today? Is Iron ore agreement with china on its way to announcement today? Or is it the circulating rumors of deal sweetening 3.8 :1 for RIO( as appeared in bloomberg today).

I had set a target of 48.70 quite a while ago, now it seems I have to move my exit point a little higer :)
Click to expand...

No idea, but what a nice run it just had... I'm so frustrated, about 10 minutes before it began, I got sick of waiting for something to happen and sold at what looked like the ceiling at the time - 48.80.. then whoosh. Maybe it was me that triggered it. :banghead:
 
It's currently trading in channel... $50 looks to be the target then a pullback.... looking too risky to buy at these levels, looks like it has lost momentum and volume is extremely light
 
ShareIt said:
It's currently trading in channel... $50 looks to be the target then a pullback.... looking too risky to buy at these levels, looks like it has lost momentum and volume is extremely light
Click to expand...

Yeh, it is in a damn messy channel! Very odd trading at the moment! I would certainly not buy until there was a clear (by this I mean a lot of effort, wide spreads, good volume) break of it's previous all-time high.

Until then, too low R:R with resistance just overhead.

Cheers
 
Looks like the market is not agreeing with you guya as BHP is up almost 5 % Why ????Can't explain this clearly
 
As of last post, BHP has gone para, broke through all-time high on decent volume so far, will wait until close and see what volume comes in and how the close ends up.

RSI at a decent level, but not relatively strong enough for me. I expect to see a consolidation around $48 here, but definately a breakout opportunity potentially presenting itself for those willing to take the chance.

Would still be onboard from its $40 gap up if I didn't have to spend a week in an isolated part of the world and dump all trades beforehand. :mad: Since, have not found a decent trading opportunity arise!

Well done to the investors!
 
Rumour is that the Chinese are getting ready to purchase a stake in BHP, therefore the dramatic jump in BHP'S share price today.A few analysts have since come forward noting that volume hasnt been extravagent and that no large block purchases have been seen,basically indicating that it is still just a rumour at the moment.BHP price at 48.12 and dropping,from a high of 48.54.
 
Fab said:
Looks like the market is not agreeing with you guya as BHP is up almost 5 % Why ????Can't explain this clearly
Click to expand...

It is agreeing with us.... what we are saying is that it is in a channel and it should hit around $50 give or take a little.... you need to look at the internals behind this rally, and they look very weak to me... volume is my biggest indicator as a move up or down needs volume to sustain... right now the BHP move up is getting extremely light on volume based on the move sizes...
 
Fivo said:
Rumour is that the Chinese are getting ready to purchase a stake in BHP, therefore the dramatic jump in BHP'S share price today.A few analysts have since come forward noting that volume hasnt been extravagent and that no large block purchases have been seen,basically indicating that it is still just a rumour at the moment.BHP price at 48.12 and dropping,from a high of 48.54.
Click to expand...

scrap rumours... the biggest downfall of a trader... think of it this way, by the time it hits us, the prices is way out of reach, big guys then pound the stock off to the little guy at large prices... perfect example was the RIO rumour, stock shot to $150... big guys sold off at those levels and then price dropped to $100 over a couple months
 
ShareIt said:
scrap rumours... the biggest downfall of a trader... think of it this way, by the time it hits us, the prices is way out of reach, big guys then pound the stock off to the little guy at large prices... perfect example was the RIO rumour, stock shot to $150... big guys sold off at those levels and then price dropped to $100 over a couple months
Click to expand...

Exactly the reason I just took out a short on BHP - haven't seen BHP run by 10%+ in a few days before without giving some back in the near future.
 
jonojpsg said:
Exactly the reason I just took out a short on BHP - haven't seen BHP run by 10%+ in a few days before without giving some back in the near future.
Click to expand...

good call if you ask me... much more limited risk than taking a long position... I personally would have waited till a $50 touch or a confirmation of turn... but either way risk is in your favour:)
 
ShareIt said:
good call if you ask me... much more limited risk than taking a long position... I personally would have waited till a $50 touch or a confirmation of turn... but either way risk is in your favour:)
Click to expand...

Why would you say this? It just moved up through an old all-time high on decent volume on a wide spread and closed near the high? I would say there would be more risk if volume did not increase (however still would have been nice to see volume higher than today).

Also, RSI is sitting around where it was in April at the $45 level, so it would have been reassuring to see RSI move higher.

I did not take the trade, just did not have confidence in this breakout and will be looking for a consolidation.

Cannot say there is less risk in taking a short.........
 
MRC & Co said:
Why would you say this? It just moved up through an old all-time high on decent volume on a wide spread and closed near the high? I would say there would be more risk if volume did not increase (however still would have been nice to see volume higher than today).

Also, RSI is sitting around where it was in April at the $45 level, so it would have been reassuring to see RSI move higher.

I did not take the trade, just did not have confidence in this breakout and will be looking for a consolidation.

Cannot say there is less risk in taking a short.........
Click to expand...

Hi numbers up again!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 275.0 292.8 429.8 447.4
DPS 55.4 64.6 72.1 80.6

Date: 14/5/2008
Author: Barry FitzGerald
Source: The Age --- Page: B1
BHP Billiton agreed to pay $C284 million ($A298 million) for junior Canadianpartner Anglo Potash on 12 May 2008. The acquisition follows on from former BHPMD Chip Goodyear's "feed the world" strategy, which wasintroduced after the executive determined that rampant industrialisation inChina and India would increase global demand for food. BHP's offer valuesAnglo at a 34 per cent premium to its closing share price on 12 May

Date: 14/5/2008
Author: Andrew Trounson
Source: The Australian --- Page: 33
Mike Yeager, head of the petroleum division of BHP Billiton, has commented onits strategy in the immediate future. The Australian-listed resources group aimsto develop its offshore LNG projects in Western Australia as a priority.However, the relatively long distance from the coast of some 250 km poses achallenge, and several options are under consideration. The least favoured ofthese would be to make the Scarborough and Thebe fields part of the existingNorth West Shelf partnership, of which BHP is a member. This would mean thatdevelopment may be postponed until other fields of the alliance are ready.Yeager also says the petroleum arm's spending on exploration will rise toalmost $US1bn ($A1.1bn), from currently $US700m
Click to expand...

thx

MS
 
BHP just keeps on chuggin. When I first bought in I hoped I hadnt missed the boat, and had seen 2 significant rises I missed watching.. Now if i had just put it all in BHP id be much better off than I am now haha. Again, without BHP, my folio would look a lot worse right now haha.

Goin like the kloppers :D
 
MRC & Co said:
Why would you say this? It just moved up through an old all-time high on decent volume on a wide spread and closed near the high? I would say there would be more risk if volume did not increase (however still would have been nice to see volume higher than today).

Also, RSI is sitting around where it was in April at the $45 level, so it would have been reassuring to see RSI move higher.

I did not take the trade, just did not have confidence in this breakout and will be looking for a consolidation.

Cannot say there is less risk in taking a short.........
Click to expand...

Everyone has a different style of trade, but just to explain my thoughts here goes:D

1) I always put myself in the situation of what the big guy would do and what the amateur would do.... the amateur would buy at these levels and the big guys would sell at these levels... remember, the big guys pick up at the bottom from $33 and sells off at the top to the average joe who thinks it will go higher and higher and higher:rolleyes:

2) Looking at BHP, I see where it has come and where it is now... from $33 (mid march) to $48 in the space of 2 months is way too fast, way too soon... so this give me an opinion that this stock is WAY too over extended...

3) I look at the volume around October 07 to Jan 08 and it looks quite decent on the sell.... compared with the volume from march 08 till now, it has been very light and is getting lighter (trend wise).... yes, we may have a few up spikes in volume, but the overall trend is very light.... so this tells me that the buyers are not 100% behind the stock but rather taking partial position. Not a strong case for the bulls at a level of $48....

4) Volume did pick up today... but looking at intaday charts, it all happened around the $48 mark after the move up... that tells me that the big guys are selling into the power move up and hence we have volume... but considering the stock did $3 today, volume is shocking!

5) RSI, MACD and all those other indicators... I take those with a grain of salt as they are all lagging.... I might use them as a second opinion, but that's about it.... i.e. if a stock is overbought I might reconsider taking a long position and wait till it settles down.

So all these points I have made formulate a negative bias based on the way I trade.... I definately would not short at this stage, but the moment i see one sell day with heavy volume I will jump in.... On a risk to reward ratio, the downside looks more attactive.... any move higher than $48 is resistance and the next decent level of support is $40 - $42... another point, BHP is in a channel and it just hit the top resistance, so a pullback to around $46 - $47 would be expected before another leg up... I think $50 - $51 will be tough to break, but I will only trade it down if I see heavy volume at this level....:D
 
Yes, I can see your point (I actually came to very similar conclusions). But risk either way to me is relatively equal (though I add analysis of the XMJ to this regarding the long side), long or short (hence I did not take the trade, no confluence here). The close was well above resistance/support, which is positive, however the next few days will be crucial.

The decreasing volume over the last few months is EXTREMELLY worrying for this breakout and why I did not take the trade.

RSI definately only confirmation. MACD, don't use it.
 
Top