Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

Jump to new
$40 was a resistance point for BHP too brake on its way down also seems too be on its way up.Like it downward path once it breaks could be in for a good run.
When well who knows but Iron Ore Coal and Oil at record levels may not be too long.
 
Lucky_Country said:
When well who knows but Iron Ore Coal and Oil at record levels may not be too long.
Click to expand...
How? The Iron Ore is contracted, and China is ever dependant on coal especially after those plant shutdowns. And petrol well, only way long-term for that is up and more up unless no-one's car works anymore!
 
BHP and Rio tend to behave as though the dividend payout doesn't exist.
It's relatively small anway - for both companies. Trying to predict how they will behave ex-div could lead to frustration.
 
vishalt said:
How? The Iron Ore is contracted, and China is ever dependant on coal especially after those plant shutdowns. And petrol well, only way long-term for that is up and more up unless no-one's car works anymore!
Click to expand...

All of this is true.. longer term. But this market seems to have forgotten about lthe ong term at present... what BHP needs is a softening of the $AUD / nice commodity prices... hopefully interest rate rises will start to hit the economy, in particular, imports and thus put downward pressure on the dollar soonish. Personally, I think BHP is in for a run maybe from 6 months or so. Why six months? Hopefully America will have sorted itself out (or be well on the way) by then and hopefully the dollar will have eased off a tad. Just my humble opinion...:2twocents
 
Reading between lines Uncle SAM will not return before early 2009. Probably it will shed the departure of Uncle Ben as soon as the New President is sworn in.

THe red flag to US has already been shown by Lord China.

That is my observation and I would like to be seen as wrong (vested interest in share market only fulfils if USA returns to black).
 
Had a clear break of a rising support line today... was going to play it short but was not 100% convinced as the weekly support is not broken.... any other TA traders care to share some thoughts on this one?
 
ShareIt said:
Had a clear break of a rising support line today... was going to play it short but was not 100% convinced as the weekly support is not broken.... any other TA traders care to share some thoughts on this one?
Click to expand...

If you refer to the support line beginning on the 22Jan it's quite a steeply rising line and so it's really only been broken so far by sideways SP action. If the SP is lower again tomorrow I agree it would be more convincing. If it's some other line you are looking at then a chart would be most helpful.

From a short-term FA perspective, most of the base metal prices are falling today along with gold. Also, oil has fallen slightly since yesterday while the AUS dollar continues to strengthen. If all these trends continue overnight then expect BHP's SP to be lower tomorrow. If this does occur then the TA will reinforce the short-term FA. Check the metal and oil prices first thing tomorrow. It may not be too late to short BHP at the open.
 
blablabla said:
If you refer to the support line beginning on the 22Jan it's quite a steeply rising line and so it's really only been broken so far by sideways SP action. If the SP is lower again tomorrow I agree it would be more convincing. If it's some other line you are looking at then a chart would be most helpful.

From a short-term FA perspective, most of the base metal prices are falling today along with gold. Also, oil has fallen slightly since yesterday while the AUS dollar continues to strengthen. If all these trends continue overnight then expect BHP's SP to be lower tomorrow. If this does occur then the TA will reinforce the short-term FA. Check the metal and oil prices first thing tomorrow. It may not be too late to short BHP at the open.
Click to expand...


I was referring to the support line begining on the 22nd Jan as you mentioned. Thanks for the tip.. my plan was exactly that, to see where BHP opens... if it opens lower, then I will wait for that bounce up to the rising resistance line to see if it holds... if it does, then will short BHP at some point during the day :)
 
Brisbane Times,.... China has reportedly locked out BHP and Rio Tinto in the iron ore spot market. The report says that neither has been able to send a shipment to China since Jan 1st affecting an estimated $A300 mln in exports. This boycott is not impacting imports from other countries with China now Australia"s top export destination. The revelation suggests that export receipts for Australia could be impacted in the months to come, a negative for the economy and currency.
 
obvious this is in steady but confirmed weekly downtrend in price and momentum

watch for break of neckline (pink line) as this will complete the head and shoulders
 

Attachments

  • BHP (Au).png
    BHP (Au).png
    12.9 KB · Views: 249
Can someone explain the effect of this china's spot Iron blocking on BHP share price. It does not constitute their main business of selling iron ore to companies. How much do they sell in spot market of china?

The current fear of china blocking BHP/RIO is because of the political ( Dalai Lama, fear olympic ban, China unfaviurable in the eye of world etc..) aspects or is there any fundamental substance in this news.

Is it just merely a tactic to negotiate the iron ore price?
 
AS noone seems interested in BHP spot market target, I did some research and found this for the benfeit of anyone interested.

from bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=ak2mUhvTE8NU&refer=australia

``Our position is we are still involved in pricing discussions,'' Gervase Greene, Rio spokesman, said by telephone from Perth. ``We have said we expected to sell up to 15 million tons on the spot market this year and that hasn't changed.
Click to expand...

And considering a conservative spot price of $150 per ton ( $190 quoted in the bloomberg article ), it amounts to

15Million T * 150 $/T =$2.25B .....if BHP has a target of half of that this will become a Billion dollar question.

Just for a curious mind current contract for iron ore is $85 for RIO ( I assumed the same for BHP). Which they are negotiating to be increased by more than 71% ( which china has agreed with brazillian CVAD ) .My guess is $150 per Ton is the price target RIO/BHP are looking for.

Any comments to correct me are welcome.
 
Fundamentally valuing something this big with so many moving parts, rapidly moving prices, unsigned draft contracts, hurricanes, floods, strikes, forecast demand rising a falling like the tides, and sharmans operating their accouning division, who knows?

Chart wise, a very nasty H&S bearing down ominously.
 

Attachments

  • BHP.gif
    BHP.gif
    26.1 KB · Views: 190
Interesting build up to todays open.
3, 6 & 9 million shares being offered (at moment).
Check out the depth.
 
Muschu said:
Can you help out a relative novice guys? What kind of BHP action are you expecting today?
Many thanks
Click to expand...
Pending any offer from China, I'd say in line with commods and the US market plus or minus 5%. So, somewhere between +2% and -7% ish. :p: :)
 
kennas said:
Pending any offer from China, I'd say in line with commods and the US market plus or minus 5%. So, somewhere between +2% and -7% ish. :p: :)
Click to expand...

Tremendously helpful. [?] I gather some prophets, or would-be prophets, out there actually estimate opening and closing prices based on a range of data.
 
Muschu said:
Tremendously helpful. [?] I gather some prophets, or would-be prophets, out there actually estimate opening and closing prices based on a range of data.
Click to expand...
Any time Rick. :)

Current match is 33.26.

Why do you ask anyway? What value is the opening price to you? Just curious?

Or, you're talking about exactly where it's going to go during the day so you can trade it whichever way it's going?

I'd like to know that too, thanks.
 
kennas said:
Any time Rick. :)

Current match is 33.26.

Why do you ask anyway? What value is the opening price to you? Just curious?
Click to expand...

Thanks for that. I have held BHP, which along with WOW has been my best-serving stock, for years and topped up from time to time. I was thinking of a small top-up today but am not able [and don't want to] sit at my PC all day.
Regards
 
Top