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BHP - BHP Group

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sorry barry, i phrased that wrong... should have said a number of analysts are still predicting price growth but are revising their price forecasts downwards since US recession has come into focus...
 
Good to see people still listening to analysts "forecasting" - more like "reacting" to high fed rate cuts which might indicate a US recession.

The US government and the Fed are giving lollipops to the country and will avert recession for atleast a year more IMO, them rate cuts and stimulus packages will take time to come into affect.

Also copper & aluminum have been going nuts lately on the LME and those metals are true indicators about the health of the world economy.

Also again on BHP's profit, I reinterate that it is still $6 billion, that is astronomical, if you expected a 30%+ increase you were living in lala land, as funny as saying you can double your portfolio each year.

The important thing is that BHP is still making riveting amounts of money each year, take Exxon Mobil for example, its had periods of record profits of $40US billion and then declines to $30US billion because of a blend of shutdowns, slowdowns etc etc but shareholders still realize that its cashed up and as long as blue-chip company is earning money it will continue to go up - as Mobil has done.

If I remember correctly Rio Tinto had a 6% decline last year, and that's when the stock was $80.

Future growth prospects of BHP (superb petrol projects, copper) and Rio (Ore & Aluminum) are too good.

P.S I have been buying more in the $30's, BHP once again does not cease to disappoint me, on the verge of $40 again, what a stock!
 
mrgroundwork said:
dont wanna be rude, as you seem to be newish to this whole stock gambling business, but a lot of what you are saying is either incorrect or so basic, it doesnt need to be said at all...

anyway, back to BHP... and more importantly large cap miners in general... i am becoming increasingly concerned that this whole "mining boom cycle" is a myth... fair enough we have had some stellar years, but recently the growth in profits from the large cap miners has not been that impressive... it seems that costs are growing at a similar pace, therefore negating any rise in revenues... that to me signals the boom is over and with most analysts predicting commodity prices to fall, we could potentially see some nasty profit downgrades in the sector over the next year perhaps?

IMO doesnt bode well for BHP
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Yes, only a year intensly studying into these things, so relatively new still. Though, been in the stockmarket 13 years on and off.

However, can you please point out the parts that are wrong? Also, what other factors are in play here, as your analysis seems "basic" in itself.

What I said were the very basics behind most valuation methods in fundamental analysis, as this is what the poster I replied too asked.

Should I have wrote ceteris paribus after my basic part on equity? ;)
 
Is this cyclone over the WA Pilbara coast likely to have any disruption for BHP over the next week? (their ports are located on that part of the coast right?)
 
This cyclone will have no impact on BHP and as has already moved West of Karratha. They only closed the port for 24 hours as they needed to move the ships out to deep water. Only seasonal rains inland, so no impact on production. Late February and into March are the busy periods for cyclones and there is likely to be a couple more in the coming weeks.
 
Someone forgot to tell the BHP trains that are still running on the tracks today. :rolleyes:

A day or two is not an impact and can easily be caught up. The models are showing that this cyclone may not even cross the coast. Inland river levels are steady and all roads are open. Anything written in the press on cyclones is always extremely outdated. If you are interested then take a look at the following link: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60285.shtml for current forecasts. Trust me when you live in the area you watch their movements like a hawke because it affects all our businesses.

I would expect if the cyclone keeps on this projected path then I really doubt it will have any significant impact on the mines in the Pilbara except for a bit of rain as it passes by. But if it does cross the coast, it is likely to be around Onslow or Exmouth and then it will depend on its path from that point as to where flooding will occur.
 
Yet again another dissapointing performance by the Australian listed BHP Billiton yet again.

A tip for you all, BHP Australia is a spitting joke, I cannot comprehend how the ADRs in the US have blown away the returns from this Aussie listed pot-stock and how the British one has done better.

Big believer in BHP, just disgusted with the shocking performance of the Aussie-listed vehicle.

It should be @ $43.
 
It was sliding downwards after 3.30 this afternoon. It was around $40 most of the day and then it went down, It just cant get over that $40 barrier.
 
vishalt said:
Yet again another dissapointing performance by the Australian listed BHP Billiton yet again.

A tip for you all, BHP Australia is a spitting joke, I cannot comprehend how the ADRs in the US have blown away the returns from this Aussie listed pot-stock and how the British one has done better.

Big believer in BHP, just disgusted with the shocking performance of the Aussie-listed vehicle.

It should be @ $43.
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If you take a look at the technical side... there was a bearish engulfing pattern last week back when it had a drop of 7.5%. This produced a resistance level at around $40.15 from that pattern. The market has tested it today and then pulled back... The rise in price today with low volume and no clear break of resistance is definately suggesting a hesitation and a strong possibility that the stock may make it's way back to support at $36 over the next week....
 
Shareit, you're right that there is a technical side, but as stupid as I this sounds: If BHP in London goes up 5% overnight, the Australian BHP should not perform any worse regardless of whatever is on the chart, the same company should have an almost identical correlation in price regardless of supports/resistances.

I do not understand counterpart investors of the same company enjoy better returns?

British-BHP Jan 2003 low = 3.11 pounds.
British-BHP all-time high = 18.98 pounds.
= six-fold return

Australian-BHP Jan 2003 low = $8.90
Australian-BHP all-time high = $47.70
= 5.35x return

US-BHP Jan 2003 low = $10.36
US-BHP all-time high = $87.26
= almost nine-fold return

Dual-listing and US ADR's are a disgusting joke.

It is the worst for Australians using margin lending on BHP as we get charged the most interest out of both those countries.

What a joke.
 
vishalt said:
Shareit, you're right that there is a technical side, but as stupid as I this sounds: If BHP in London goes up 5% overnight, the Australian BHP should not perform any worse regardless of whatever is on the chart, the same company should have an almost identical correlation in price regardless of supports/resistances.

I do not understand counterpart investors of the same company enjoy better returns?

British-BHP Jan 2003 low = 3.11 pounds.
British-BHP all-time high = 18.98 pounds.
= six-fold return

Australian-BHP Jan 2003 low = $8.90
Australian-BHP all-time high = $47.70
= 5.35x return

US-BHP Jan 2003 low = $10.36
US-BHP all-time high = $87.26
= almost nine-fold return

Dual-listing and US ADR's are a disgusting joke.

It is the worst for Australians using margin lending on BHP as we get charged the most interest out of both those countries.

What a joke.
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I see your point... but you must take into account the volume... The US and UK without a doubt have a lot more investors in the market and that is definately going to have an impact on supply/demand.... it is a stupid concept considering it is the SAME company, but this is what makes share trading exciting :)
 
ShareIt said:
I see your point... but you must take into account the volume... The US and UK without a doubt have a lot more investors in the market and that is definately going to have an impact on supply/demand.... it is a stupid concept considering it is the SAME company, but this is what makes share trading exciting :)
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Exactly.

How is the Aussie dollar expected to do against the pound and USD? Another aspect to consider.

But I would not base my investments on relative prices in different countries. If the Australian economy is performing better than that of the US (which it is), why did our stockmarket fall further?

If most global investors (not just locals), are more aware and comfortable investing in the US or UK, then it might explain why their prices are higher, and isnt it true PE ratios are historically lower in OZ anways? Another thing to consider anyways.
 
MRC & Co said:
Exactly.

How is the Aussie dollar expected to do against the pound and USD? Another aspect to consider.

But I would not base my investments on relative prices in different countries. If the Australian economy is performing better than that of the US (which it is), why did our stockmarket fall further?
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Good point... I am no expert, but I have noticed that when you have thin volume traded there is more volatility (bigger moves).... obviously we have a smaller market than our overseas counterparts and much less investors... which would leave me to believe that this is the reason why we have a bigger moves.... don't quote me on it though :confused:
 
BHP is going ex-div on monday. How much % should it be dropping ? and do you guys still see volatility with BHP in the short term or is it an upward trend ?

I got some put options. Hopefully, i can make the right choice.
 
Yeah I have no clue what is going to be happy on Mon, wouldn't be surprised if it drops or rallies.

Only thing I have like I've said a billion times is probability in my favor.

With copper near records, high iron ore prices and petrol at $101 the stars are shining for BHP.

Also the price BHP in London is at BHP here should be $42 relatively (for the short-term).
 
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