BHP - BHP Group

[Whiskers]

Not very confident that it will succeed.

I think RIO has been agressively ramping up production to max. I think they are intent on posting best possible revenues and forecasts to max out the share price and take out all the blue sky attractiveness that BHP see.

Rumours abound of new BHP bid for Rio
Friday Jan 18 19:58 AEDT
The Australian and UK financial markets are abuzz with rumours that mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd is set to make an improved takeover bid for rival Rio Tinto Ltd as early as next week.

Rio Tinto's share price rose by three per cent in early trading on the London Stock Exchange, amid widespread speculation amongst analysts and brokers.

Analysts say a revised offer might be comprise 3.5 BHP Billiton shares for one Rio share, plus a cash component.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=63308

 

[kerosam]

i would taught the new supprt level would be 34.12... i too am a BHP shorter... then again, it seems the present market conditions is good for shorting...

 

[oldblue]

Uncertainty killed the cat too.

How much will BHP pay? What about the integration risks? Will they walk away? How long will it take to realise the synergies? In time before China falls back to earth? Why is the sky blue?

Actually it was "curiosity" that did for the cat.

With the market in its present state, my money's on BHP walking away until the dust settles.

Disc: Hold BHP but no RIO, unfortunately.

 

[TMC19]

Pretty new here so bear with me.

Looks like there are 2 scenarios that could pan out here and I would like to get a grasp of the prospective movements of each stock if either scenario was to happen. By prospective movements I'm talking what normally happens in a talkover situation and I'm also taking short term movement (approx 2/3 weeks)

1. BHP go ahead with RIO bid.
RIO value increases
BHP value decreases

2. BHP pull out of the RIO bid
RIO value decreases
BHP value increases

Is this a simplistic overview of what would likely happen ? Interested in other peoples views on this.

 

[M34N]

Pretty new here so bear with me.

Looks like there are 2 scenarios that could pan out here and I would like to get a grasp of the prospective movements of each stock if either scenario was to happen. By prospective movements I'm talking what normally happens in a talkover situation and I'm also taking short term movement (approx 2/3 weeks)

1. BHP go ahead with RIO bid.
RIO value increases
BHP value decreases

2. BHP pull out of the RIO bid
RIO value decreases
BHP value increases

Is this a simplistic overview of what would likely happen ? Interested in other peoples views on this.

Short term, correct.

Long term, BHP up. BHP gains Rio's iron ore assets, eliminates a competitor, increases its assets overall, still has plenty of cash in the bank and China boom story to go on for years. Only depends on the US sub-prime / recession mess now and how deep that will go, and more importantly, what the US Fed and government does to halt the inevitable fall into recession.

All basic resources like copper, zinc, iron, coal, lead, gold, oil etc, still are high in demand and that will drive profits for BHP long term. Fundamentals are still great, and BHP has a fantastic board with a lot of money and assets, no reason to panic on BHP IMO.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

here are the SP "pause" levels using Fib. retrace taken from the top

values used: A 4767; B 3977; C 4433

the targets: 1) 3945 (yep, but refreshment stop only)
2) 3643
3) 3155

BHP is a beautiful stock to chart, all human life is there. Asutralian's hopes and dreams, their super and future often rest on this little miner.

I have been following BHP for many years.

I enclose a weekly chart from mid 1998 to the present.

Firstly it is important to note that BHP remains in a primary uptrend and should it continue, confirmation will occur when it goes through its previous all time high of $47.70.

However when I stood at the other end of the verandah from the screen I noticed a pattern which should urge some caution.

BHP may be in a head and shoulders pattern in a larger as well as a more recent time frame.

The gold trendline shows longer term longer time support and the blue the shorter term support. The trading range which I expect BHP to trade in should it fall is $23 to $30. I'll certainly be topping up below $30 and definitely at $23 should this "correction" continue. The shoulders are shown as big and little, in the respective time frames. The possible heads are the same, the recent highs.

I would be wary therefore of a rally to $40 especially on low volume as it may auger a retracement and fulfillment of the head and shoulders hypothesis.

So I'll be buying if it continues down and watching volume if it recovers.

gg

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

BHP ... our astroanalysis shows us 3 significant
and positive cycles in play 07022008, so we will
be alert for more BHP/RIO news, at that time.

..... that's also one day after the next interest
rate announcement !~!

have a great weekend

paul



=====

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

BHP is a beautiful stock to chart, all human life is there. Asutralian's hopes and dreams, their super and future often rest on this little miner.

I have been following BHP for many years.

I enclose a weekly chart from mid 1998 to the present.

Firstly it is important to note that BHP remains in a primary uptrend and should it continue, confirmation will occur when it goes through its previous all time high of $47.70.

However when I stood at the other end of the verandah from the screen I noticed a pattern which should urge some caution.

BHP may be in a head and shoulders pattern in a larger as well as a more recent time frame.

The gold trendline shows longer term longer time support and the blue the shorter term support. The trading range which I expect BHP to trade in should it fall is $23 to $30. I'll certainly be topping up below $30 and definitely at $23 should this "correction" continue. The shoulders are shown as big and little, in the respective time frames. The possible heads are the same, the recent highs.

I would be wary therefore of a rally to $40 especially on low volume as it may auger a retracement and fulfillment of the head and shoulders hypothesis.

So I'll be buying if it continues down and watching volume if it recovers.

gg

Just an update on the weekly chart to today which shows BHP nudging and going through some significant support lines.

gg

 

[vishalt]

I don't think there is any technical indicator that could suggest what BHP is going to do, this market is going indiscriminately nuclear.

BHP is holding better than the financial atleast, brace yourselves for $30-$31 tomorrow, and I'm being optimistic there.

 

[Ken]

I agree.

Chartwise if BHP touches its long term up trend line then it would be $28.00

Now if BHP is to do what more stocks have done of late, which is break its long term uptrend then your looking at sub $28.00's

That is just chart wise.

Fundamentally that would make worth buying.

I have seen with so many stocks that they have gone really fast down to meet their long term trend lines.

BHP could be no exception.

 

[Bushman]

BHP is currently 5.8% down on the LSE. Looks like $30/$31 is a distinct possibility tomorrow. Wow.

I topped up today at $34 odd thinking that 11 straight down days on the ASX could not be sustained and BHP would lead the rally as it did in August. Looks like I will be able to get some more tomorrow.

Low in the mid 20's? Guess it depends what the DJIA does tomorrow night. If the futures are a guide, its down, down, down!

Savage really.

 

[rub92me]

BHP shareprice is fighting back hard at the moment; maybe maybe we've seen the worst for today at 31.25

 

[treefrog]

the still long BHP brigade (and this appears to be many) should be aware of what happens to growth stocks in a significant downturn - there is neutral or even negative prospects for the PEG - ie the future or foreseen earnings, and stockholders look for reasonable dividends - I am short BHP looking for $24 and am wondering if that support will hold for long - will continue to trade what is there - not what I would like to be there
our fed govt must be wondering what to do with all the CGT it will collect from the med and long termers who are now bailing in numbers
and what does the poor fund manager do - income is linked to fund performance

 

[chops_a_must]

the still long BHP brigade (and this appears to be many) should be aware of what happens to growth stocks in a significant downturn - there is neutral or even negative prospects for the PEG - ie the future or foreseen earnings, and stockholders look for reasonable dividends - I am short BHP looking for $24 and am wondering if that support will hold for long - will continue to trade what is there - not what I would like to be there
our fed govt must be wondering what to do with all the CGT it will collect from the med and long termers who are now bailing in numbers
and what does the poor fund manager do - income is linked to fund performance

That's exactly what I am looking for here now...

Should have seen a bounce by now if it was going to pull up. Any above support is now probably invalid.

 

[wayneL]

the still long BHP brigade (and this appears to be many) should be aware of what happens to growth stocks in a significant downturn - there is neutral or even negative prospects for the PEG - ie the future or foreseen earnings, and stockholders look for reasonable dividends - I am short BHP looking for $24 and am wondering if that support will hold for long - will continue to trade what is there - not what I would like to be there
our fed govt must be wondering what to do with all the CGT it will collect from the med and long termers who are now bailing in numbers
and what does the poor fund manager do - income is linked to fund performance

Well I'm in the muppet category with regard to fundamental analysis, but that is exactly what I'm thinking (PEG and whatnot)

Stocks not looking cheap at all right here... including BHP.

BWTFDIK

 

[treefrog]

let's assume BHP earnings for 2008 hold to predictions - this may be unlikely with current retrace in commodities
and lets assume they hold at 2008 levels for 2009 and 2010 due to recession
lets assume also that the market believes this and wants more balance between gowth and earnings and expects a moderate 3.5% divvy from BHP
what then is the target for BHP share price for this scenario??

would you believe $18

 

[Lucky_Country]

BHP wont let their share hit $18 they will be buying them all back soon.
I'd be suprised if they go ahead with the RIO deal in these market conditions therefore they will be returning capital back too shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.

 

[rub92me]

let's assume BHP earnings for 2008 hold to predictions - this may be unlikely with current retrace in commodities
and lets assume they hold at 2008 levels for 2009 and 2010 due to recession
lets assume also that the market believes this and wants more balance between gowth and earnings and expects a moderate 3.5% divvy from BHP
what then is the target for BHP share price for this scenario??

would you believe $18

No I wouldn't. Not unless you provide some detailed analysis as to why this would be the case. Otherwise it's the downramp of the year.

 

[Kauri]

Just a very simple (suits my intellect ) take on two of the paths I see that may play out for BHP.. there are others of course..
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Nyden]

Just a very simple (suits my intellect ) take on two of the paths I see that may play out for BHP.. there are others of course..
Cheers
...........Kauri

So, in other words - your highly analytical take is ... "anything could happen" :

Gosh, this market is messy. Might as well head down to the roulette table & bet a few grand on Black!