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BHP - BHP Group

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This might be an extremely long an exhaustive process, I've done an analysis of the last time BHP had a major correction.

Here's BHP making a perfect doubling in 2006. A pretty classy and fast uptrend.

bhpdouble1632oq2.png


The big bull needed a rest and it was a frustrating several months of consolidation, and once again - when everything is fine, all you'll hear from the media, fund managers and Wall Street is IT'S ALL GOOD THE MARKETS GREAT YAY WOOT. But once there's a correction OMGOSH SUBPRIME THE MAREKTS EXPLODING RECESSION BOOM IS OVER etc etc,

It was a frustrating and agonising consolidation period that lasted from June 06 to March 07, and BHP played in a range of $23.5 to $27, 28, stochastics seemed to break down each time it broke supports within that range.

bhp2006consolidationmq5.png


After BHP pulled through, a 2006 Deja Vu` anyone?

bhp2007doublingva9.png


And once again, after it doubles, the bull is tired. But did anyone notice in this stage every report out of Wall St was good, and how every fund manager/analyst/media company was spinning things like Dow 15,000! Asx 7000?

bhp2007doublingva9.png


But when the correction and consolidation period kicked in, everything out of Wall St and the media is bad, omgz the metal prices! Demand! Yet the fundamentals of China and India are still rock solid. You simply have to visit the place (like I visited India a while back) to grasp the amount of construction going on.

Anyway in 2006 BHP dropped from $32.5 to a low of $23.5, around $9 or 30 per cent, so its conceivable that BHP right now could possibly fall as low as $32, and play in a range of $32 - $38 - but not corrections are the same but right now its following the same pattern as 2006.

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Personally, I'm confident in the fundamentals and my medium-term target - should BHP drop to $32 in this correction is for it to double to around $64 around the 3rd quarter next year, but I think thats just conservative considering BHP's pipeline.
 
I don't really think BHP will drop that low to $32 but i might be wrong.
In 2006, BHP's SP reached its peak of $32 in May so that's about 5 months of rising and SP dropped in value till the end of the year.

But in 2007, SP reached its peak of $47 in mid October and that's 10 months of rising SP. Looking at the trend, you might be right to say that BHP's SP is dropping but fundamentals plus support levels are still strong to prevent a drop of 30%!!.
 
I'd certainly hope so Overrule, but I think traders should prepare for a minimum 30 per cent drop - if not 50 or a total crash, just from a pattern it seems pretty conceivable - but if it doesn't happen hey thats a bonus!
 
BHP has new production coming onstream this quarter in oil and nickel also a ramp up of iron ore tonnage which should help the share price rise early next year.
Coal and iron ore forecasts are in the 30 - 50% rise which will also act as a catalyst too the share price so in all a positive start too the new year imo
 
Lucky_Country said:
BHP has new production coming onstream this quarter in oil and nickel also a ramp up of iron ore tonnage which should help the share price rise early next year.
Coal and iron ore forecasts are in the 30 - 50% rise which will also act as a catalyst too the share price so in all a positive start too the new year imo
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Just those?

Check this pipeline out - it blows Rio Tinto's out of the water...

They're really pushing petrol, such a strong revenue from there and so many projects to come for that, don't know why Kloppers is so desperate to merge with Rio.
 

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I know it is still an hour until open - but there are currently about $250million of buy orders on BHP by just 4 buy orders! wtf :eek:
 
Yep, see that.. well i see 3 orders totalling about 212million

Interesting :D

I guess someone sees BHP a real bargain right now...
 
just for the record
here's BHP for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages
plus BHP vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance of BHP campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either
a) help out an divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)
 

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Wow... base metals surged last night, up 4% generally but nickel up 8%, and with oil at $100US barrel this is great for BHP, which was up 4% in London last night!
 
Finally some movement. BHP has been rather stagnant in the recent months after the announcement, hoping today brings back some of the losses I've taken with BHP!

Heres hoping, thanks for the good news
 
dastrix said:
Finally some movement. BHP has been rather stagnant in the recent months after the announcement, hoping today brings back some of the losses I've taken with BHP!

Heres hoping, thanks for the good news
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Have to agree, if today doesnt get things moving in the right direction i will be very worried. From a chart point of view, around the 40 dollar mark is proving to be support, bounced to 44 bucks last time, hopefully we will see the same again.
 
Just think what the sp would be if it wasnt for the RIO takeover.
The share buyback would still be running people would not have moved there money from BHP to RIO.
$46 would be my estimate, oh well short term pain long term gain.
 
Lucky_Country said:
Just think what the sp would be if it wasnt for the RIO takeover.
The share buyback would still be running people would not have moved there money from BHP to RIO.
$46 would be my estimate, oh well short term pain long term gain.
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Took the words out of my fingertips! But really, with oil prices this high and BHP finally pushing hard on its Petroleum division I'd think itd produce more smashing results this year and I'm confident it'll break past $50 in the medium term.
 
I'm waiting for this silly merger talk to be off too.. at least we now only have until Feburary 6th to worry about it. This should coincide closely with half-yearly profits. So it will be either a good (profits at or above expections, and takeover off) or bad double whammy (results below exp, takeover seen as a failure) I think. Always the possibility BHP tries to up the bid near then, but IMHO only, not likely in the current environment.
 
Metals forging ahead once again, mostly up 2% with nickel up 4% and Oil as expensive as ever, BHP's hit the accelerator on the right projects!

What really burns my tongue is how the US Adr's of BHP, and the British BHP perform so much better than the Australian one, WHERE THE BLOODY HEADQUARTERS ARE AT. I mean wtf, up 4% in London last night but here it barely manages half of that, dual structure sucks.
 
yep BHP up lately but a wee bit sobering in UK fri night

had gained 6.5% in the last couple of days but gave it all back in the last 3hrs of trade on concern of the US data - yes that's down 6.5% in 3 hours

might be a down a wee bit on Oz mkt monday

Oz $ lost a full cent (88.2 to 87.2) in the same period confirming concern for commodities
 
treefrog said:
yep BHP up lately but a wee bit sobering in UK fri night

had gained 6.5% in the last couple of days but gave it all back in the last 3hrs of trade on concern of the US data - yes that's down 6.5% in 3 hours

might be a down a wee bit on Oz mkt monday

Oz $ lost a full cent (88.2 to 87.2) in the same period confirming concern for commodities
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Yes I saw this also, BHP up 2.5-3% in London on Friday around 8pm our time, went out and checked the market Saturday morning to see it closed at -3.5%. On the positive side for the market, when BHP went up 4% Thursday in London and we only went up 1.5% the next day, this could potentially lead to a capped fall of somewhere near 2.5% only. Would be surprised to see a bigger fall than that, could provide a tempting buying opportunity if it's a bigger fall than that :2twocents
 
Well it seems like only a few weeks ago BHP had made a little run too $44 now its $39 with no buyback no takeover offer posted and alot of uncertainty surrounding the US.
I thought BHP was a safe bet !
 
Lucky_Country said:
Well it seems like only a few weeks ago BHP had made a little run too $44 now its $39 with no buyback no takeover offer posted and alot of uncertainty surrounding the US.
I thought BHP was a safe bet !
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Well once again you have to remember that it doubled in price not too long ago, a very unsustainable run, so of course its gonna have some fall from grace.

Also there's no such thing as a safe bet!
 
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