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This might be an extremely long an exhaustive process, I've done an analysis of the last time BHP had a major correction.
Here's BHP making a perfect doubling in 2006. A pretty classy and fast uptrend.
The big bull needed a rest and it was a frustrating several months of consolidation, and once again - when everything is fine, all you'll hear from the media, fund managers and Wall Street is IT'S ALL GOOD THE MARKETS GREAT YAY WOOT. But once there's a correction OMGOSH SUBPRIME THE MAREKTS EXPLODING RECESSION BOOM IS OVER etc etc,
It was a frustrating and agonising consolidation period that lasted from June 06 to March 07, and BHP played in a range of $23.5 to $27, 28, stochastics seemed to break down each time it broke supports within that range.
After BHP pulled through, a 2006 Deja Vu` anyone?
And once again, after it doubles, the bull is tired. But did anyone notice in this stage every report out of Wall St was good, and how every fund manager/analyst/media company was spinning things like Dow 15,000! Asx 7000?
But when the correction and consolidation period kicked in, everything out of Wall St and the media is bad, omgz the metal prices! Demand! Yet the fundamentals of China and India are still rock solid. You simply have to visit the place (like I visited India a while back) to grasp the amount of construction going on.
Anyway in 2006 BHP dropped from $32.5 to a low of $23.5, around $9 or 30 per cent, so its conceivable that BHP right now could possibly fall as low as $32, and play in a range of $32 - $38 - but not corrections are the same but right now its following the same pattern as 2006.
Personally, I'm confident in the fundamentals and my medium-term target - should BHP drop to $32 in this correction is for it to double to around $64 around the 3rd quarter next year, but I think thats just conservative considering BHP's pipeline.
Here's BHP making a perfect doubling in 2006. A pretty classy and fast uptrend.
The big bull needed a rest and it was a frustrating several months of consolidation, and once again - when everything is fine, all you'll hear from the media, fund managers and Wall Street is IT'S ALL GOOD THE MARKETS GREAT YAY WOOT. But once there's a correction OMGOSH SUBPRIME THE MAREKTS EXPLODING RECESSION BOOM IS OVER etc etc,
It was a frustrating and agonising consolidation period that lasted from June 06 to March 07, and BHP played in a range of $23.5 to $27, 28, stochastics seemed to break down each time it broke supports within that range.
After BHP pulled through, a 2006 Deja Vu` anyone?
And once again, after it doubles, the bull is tired. But did anyone notice in this stage every report out of Wall St was good, and how every fund manager/analyst/media company was spinning things like Dow 15,000! Asx 7000?
But when the correction and consolidation period kicked in, everything out of Wall St and the media is bad, omgz the metal prices! Demand! Yet the fundamentals of China and India are still rock solid. You simply have to visit the place (like I visited India a while back) to grasp the amount of construction going on.
Anyway in 2006 BHP dropped from $32.5 to a low of $23.5, around $9 or 30 per cent, so its conceivable that BHP right now could possibly fall as low as $32, and play in a range of $32 - $38 - but not corrections are the same but right now its following the same pattern as 2006.
Personally, I'm confident in the fundamentals and my medium-term target - should BHP drop to $32 in this correction is for it to double to around $64 around the 3rd quarter next year, but I think thats just conservative considering BHP's pipeline.