Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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Hi Reece,

IMO BHP will hit the 26 level tomoz and posably weaken further, chances are it will retest the lows in JAN. On the flip it might find a higher support this time around and bounce.

Sure its best for the dust to settle and I will take a punt then, only on my predetermined value points. Nothing has changed fundamentally for me on BHP in the last day.....as yet :) .
 
wayneL said:
Crap can be very profitable :D Everything I trade is a piece of crap.

"There's money in muck" as my father used to say. :D
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There probably is money in muck ...or at least was in your Fathers day. Thunder boxes arent around anymore/niether are septics their a dying breed.

As stated large positions taken in Companies like BHP would be on a bit more research than just the 'crap' approach.

Just my opinion.......certainly no expert of youre proportions!.
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
There probably is money in muck ...or at least was in your Fathers day. Thunder boxes arent around anymore/niether are septics their a dying breed.

As stated large positions taken in Companies like BHP would be on a bit more research than just the 'crap' approach.

Just my opinion.......certainly no expert of youre proportions!.
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Ooooooooooo! I detect sarcasm! LOL

Laaaaaaaarge positions in BHP eh?

OK flop it out, I'll get the ruler... I guess we'll need a yardstick eh?

:D
 
No need for that Wayne, I said at the time what I'd put into BHP and at that time the money was to large to put elsewhere.......Not really that much of a gambler on those amounts. Certainly not on any old piece of crap :D .....although my first inclination was a particular Nickle stock.....doh.
Hindsight is wonderful after the fact.
 
I just read the offmarket buy back leaflet. My understanding was that the capital component of the buy back was $2.50 but there is another component that is buy price - buy back price and the difference comes to add up to the $2.50 to make the capital component from where you get normally your capital tax loss. This makes it much less interesting to participate in the buy back if BHP keeps on falling. Also can anyone tell me over which days the price will be set from which the buy back discount will be calculated?
 
Just thought I would bring this up in case there are any SMSF managers on the forums and to get confirmation.

Reading through to the Off-Market Buy Back booklet from BHP that arrived today and pricing the buyback specifically for SMSF(Taxed at 15%) I have come to the conclusion that this BuyBack is just too good to pass up.


Considering that the buyback is offered as a capital component($2.50) and a fully franked dividend component calulated from the Tender Price

E.g.
Your marginal tax rate 15%
Tender Discount 12%
Assumed Market Price $27.00
Assumed Buy-Back Price $23.76
Fixed capital component $2.50
Deemed dividend component $21.26
Assumed Tax Value $27.69
Cost base (unindexed) $25.00 --------------Average Buy Price
Assumed brokerage fee per Share from on-market sale $0.27


Total after tax proceeds per Share from the Buy-Back $30.17
Total after tax proceeds per Share from on-market sale $26.47

BOTTOM LINE
Amount by which after tax proceeds from selling a Share into the Buy-Back exceeds (or is less than) the after tax proceeds from on-market sale
= $3.70



This calculation from the BHP tax calculator
http://wm-au.ibb.ubs.com/pca/taxcalc/conditionsOfUse.htm


Thus for SMSF there is an opportunity to gain $3.70 per share via the tax implications of the dividend component having purchased at average of $25.

Now if alter you alter the to purchase price to $27 then you still make $3.62 per share by selling at $37 per share.

Remember this is throufgh tax implications of the dividend component and only works for low tax rates (SMSF at 15%).


Wonderful.

Confirmation anyone.
 
ak98

If your marginal tax rate is 15% then you would be foolish not to take it up.
If your marginal tax rate is 42% then it is a different story.
The other advantage is that you can use the capital loss (assuming you bought the shares for more than (I think) $7 against your profits for the year.
 
BHP pushes through $30.00

Buys back 4% of stock for ~$24.50

Record Chinese buying pushes copper through $3.10lb and forces more investment banks to make massive upgrades in iron ore prices for the next three years.

Nickel remains above $20lb and Oil hits year high

Pullback in broader market has limited effect


BHP is going to make new highs and fast
 
BSD said:
BHP pushes through $30.00

Buys back 4% of stock for ~$24.50

Record Chinese buying pushes copper through $3.10lb and forces more investment banks to make massive upgrades in iron ore prices for the next three years.

Nickel remains above $20lb and Oil hits year high

Pullback in broader market has limited effect


BHP is going to make new highs and fast
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Looking foward to seeing Ducati say that BHP is more over valued than ever.

Presumably he is shorting BHP to match his oh so strong directional conviction.
 
haemitite said:
Looking foward to seeing Ducati say that BHP is more over valued than ever.

Presumably he is shorting BHP to match his oh so strong directional conviction.
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ducati
Please avoid a reply: I fear you may change your mind on BHP, and if you do, I will be forced to sell.
Your score on BHP is almost 100% (wrong), and as a believer in trends, cycles and probabilities, I would need to be convinced that your positive view on BHP (if you stray into that field) was a statistical aberration.
 
rederob said:
ducati
Please avoid a reply: I fear you may change your mind on BHP, and if you do, I will be forced to sell.
Your score on BHP is almost 100% (wrong), and as a believer in trends, cycles and probabilities, I would need to be convinced that your positive view on BHP (if you stray into that field) was a statistical aberration.
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:D :D
 
Ok, let me see if I understand this correctly;
In little under one year, from it's high, BHP has LOST 6% and you are gloating about how clever you all are?

Obviously we are investing in a parallel universe.

I'm still waiting for Gold to break out past $800 from last year. That's another profitable trade I take it?
 

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It is up almost $6.00 or 25% since the thread was revitalised on 15 September last year

Not bad for an old dog like BHP
 
Its harder for a stock like BHP to go up. Too many shorters/hedge funds stuffing up with the price. It will attack 30.50 today as metals are stronger for longer. Price momentum is has got.
 
mmmmining said:
(Posted on Dec 2006) Agree, the chart is not looking perfectly. But I am buying. I strongly believe the big end of the resource will play catch up game. and secondly, I strongly believe soon or later LBO will do something about BHP.

One day those fat cats will say, wait a minute, why not buy these big resource stocks for PE like 10s, with load of cash, and wonderful long life asset, Sell a couple of asset to China for $100 billion dollars, such as the oil, and uranium, and the rest are considered profits, dividends, commissions, bonus, whatever you want to call it. And flood the market with 100+ Chihuahuas (James Dines term) with breed of copper, zinc, nickel, energy coal, metallurgical coal, alumina, diamond, iron ore, silver, gold, manganese, titanium, mineral sands, etc.
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Check this article, I can wrote it over three months ago.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21451002-643,00.html
 
BHP is 36% of my portfolio, in case any of you think this is a down ramp. There is no doubt we will see the momentum in the stock in the short term, with the markets perception of new value going forward as a result of the share-buy back. Spot commodity prices are still in excess of broker estimates. The question I have for all of you is what happens is a carbon tax is introduced? Read the Citibank’s predictions if a carbon tax is introduced at $20/tonne, it could see a decline in net profits for companies such as BHP of up to 45%, look at the impact on forward P/E’s and you will see a greater impact with the introduction of such tax than a fall in commodity prices below the current broker estimates. If a federal labour government is elected then the likelihood of an introduction of this tax is very strong. Be on the lookout for such political rhetoric unless Rudd continues aligns himself with the right, however there is no doubt that a Federal Policy on Carbon omissions will be an election issue, and if implemented it will affect companies such as BHP that have high Carbon emissions.


Cheers
 
In addition, from last May's lows the ASX 200 went to new highs.
What did BHP do?

Oh yes, absolutely nothing.

Go that gold!

jog on
d998
 
ducati916 said:
In addition, from last May's lows the ASX 200 went to new highs.
What did BHP do?

Oh yes, absolutely nothing.

Go that gold!

jog on
d998
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I got a 26 cent per share dividend. That came to about $500!! I think I bought a bottle of Grange with that. LOL. In the bank I might have earnt $2.5K....

I'm loving the LBO rumours on BHP.

Ducati, do you think that there would be more value in BHP if it's broken up into separate entities? Pretty vague request, but you seem to have analysed BHP by its parts. Anything that actually does make good money? What if it spun out its oil for example?
 
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