BHP - BHP Group

[Sean K]

POO up, Copper up, in fact, everything up....BHP recently breaking long sideways consolidation period. Momentum looks clearly up at the moment. Might find some resistance at psychological $30, but all time high next likely stop IMO.

 

[reece55]

POO up, Copper up, in fact, everything up....BHP recently breaking long sideways consolidation period. Momentum looks clearly up at the moment. Might find some resistance at psychological $30, but all time high next likely stop IMO.

Gday Kennas
Agreed mate.........

The Weekly chart really tells the story - we had a very long sideways pattern in place for almost a year could have been bearish if we had broken through that 23.50 ~ barrier. However, the gap after the half yearly results and price action subsequently says the stock is strong and steady as she goes. I reckon we will get to see a test of those highs before June, and then we will see from there....

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Gday Kennas
Agreed mate.........

The Weekly chart really tells the story - we had a very long sideways pattern in place for almost a year could have been bearish if we had broken through that 23.50 ~ barrier. However, the gap after the half yearly results and price action subsequently says the stock is strong and steady as she goes. I reckon we will get to see a test of those highs before June, and then we will see from there....

Cheers

Will just have to get over some short term resistance at $29.50 as well. Failed there a few days ago, and might consolidate a little before pushing on. MACD is saying it's having a break, but due to overnight commods I think this will change.

 

[rederob]

Will just have to get over some short term resistance at $29.50 as well. Failed there a few days ago, and might consolidate a little before pushing on. MACD is saying it's having a break, but due to overnight commods I think this will change.

Gee kennas.
I dunno; without hearing from ducati on this one, I wouldn't know which way to go.

 

[Sean K]

Gee kennas.
I dunno; without hearing from ducati on this one, I wouldn't know which way to go.

Yeah, I know. I think Ducati has a $9 valuation from memory. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[haemitite]

Yeah, I know. I think Ducati has a $9 valuation from memory. We'll have to wait and see.

Wasn't it $8?

I'm intrigued by Ducati's iinovative use of fundamental measures. Would love to get his insights on Google's value

 

[rederob]

Yeah, I know. I think Ducati has a $9 valuation from memory. We'll have to wait and see.

Yes
But surely that is based on his view of the fundamental value of our dollar, as measured against the difference between the greenback and euro prior to "unification" and the adoption of decimal currency in New Zealand, less a deflator on the gold index, and a grossing up pre-tax.
Can't you get that into your heads, boys!

 

[Sean K]

Yes
But surely that is based on his view of the fundamental value of our dollar, as measured against the difference between the greenback and euro prior to "unification" and the adoption of decimal currency in New Zealand, less a deflator on the gold index, and a grossing up pre-tax.
Can't you get that into your heads, boys!

That's obviously not factored into the chart yet. But perhaps one day it will...

 

[CanOz]

Hi folks, i sold out of BHP two days, the day after it hit the high. I was worried it seemed little demand for the stock at the time. Since then its been hit with some selling pressure. Maybe its only a short term retracement....i guess i'm just getting nervous about everything atm.

Cheers,

 

[hector]

This thread seems to attract as much fervour as any football match involving Collingwood - is it 'wrong' to have a bearish outlook on BHP?

From a novice point of view, the debate between ducati and BSD and others has yielded much insight into the way you value companies and project their future growth/earnings - thanks, I can't get enough of it.

But the purpose of this thread I imagine, is to share information and form some consensus on how to trade this stock for profit whichever direction it is heading. From all accounts, this company is well run, has been performing well and is set to grow, I hope it does and I hope to profit by it. I also enjoy hearing a contrary view and look forward to duc's next post.

Cheers all,

hector

 

[Sean K]

This thread seems to attract as much fervour as any football match involving Collingwood - is it 'wrong' to have a bearish outlook on BHP?..............I also enjoy hearing a contrary view and look forward to duc's next post.

Don't get me wrong hector. I totally respect everyone's opinion of any stock when it comes with some analysis and justification. And I definately appreciate a contrary view. (my friends call the the ultimate devils advocate) To be perfectly honest, my fundamental analysis of any stock is extremely basic, and I do not understand most of what Ducati says. What's more important to me is price action as I believe all the markets available information and psychology is generally factored into a sp. (of course, the market is a heard animal and over and undershoots fair value) BHP seems to be going up now and is at $29.00 ish. It's a fair way off a confirmed down trend to Ducati's fair value target of $8-9 ish at the moment. I have to ask, who is more likely to be correct at the moment? The heard, or Ducati?

 

[Sean K]

Hi folks, i sold out of BHP two days, the day after it hit the high. I was worried it seemed little demand for the stock at the time. Since then its been hit with some selling pressure. Maybe its only a short term retracement....i guess i'm just getting nervous about everything atm.

Cheers,

Hi Canaussieuck, I noticed it mentioned elsewhere on the site that Nick Radge gave a sell on BHP recently. I think I recall you were signed up. Is that why you sold, or because of your own analysis. Just curious.

Chart wise, it has paused at $29.50 resistance, but the long term chart says it's probably going up, IMO.

I am also nervous, but perhaps it's unfounded? There is so much liquidity out there, it just has to find a home.....I have sold 3/4 of my portfolio the past 5 months expecting a sharp correction, only to see lots of potential gains lost.....perhaps the old theory of 'time in' the market, not 'timing', should be held up a little more.

 

[hector]

BHP seems to be going up now and is at $29.00 ish. It's a fair way off a confirmed down trend to Ducati's fair value target of $8-9 ish at the moment. I have to ask, who is more likely to be correct at the moment? The herd, or Ducati?

Hi kennas,

That's got me chuckling!

Went to a Lincoln Indicators seminar here in Adelaide which seems like a good tool for chartists who would like to put fundamentals in some sort of perspective...anyway BHP was a standout performer in reported fundamentals, yet at the time their sp was languishing and in a down trending channel.

So while I was shorting BHP I was ever-mindful that the market might catch on and reverse the trend. Actually I was sluggish but never mind about that....

cheers

 

[ducati916]

Chap's,

See you are all missing me.
My fair value range was [and is] $13.80 to $18.70
My *personal* buy point would be $8.00 to $10.00

With regards to the share price, hey it's a bullmarket. That said, I still maintain that it is overvalued and as an investment does not represent a safe purchase at these price levels.

If you are going to trade it, then who cares.

jog on
d998

 

[Moneybags]

I am also nervous, but perhaps it's unfounded? There is so much liquidity out there, it just has to find a home.....I have sold 3/4 of my portfolio the past 5 months expecting a sharp correction, only to see lots of potential gains lost.....perhaps the old theory of 'time in' the market, not 'timing', should be held up a little more.

Kennas,

I'm also in the nervous club at the moment........I think reaching 6000 is significant. However BHP has finally turned around and I'm happy to run with it........after all there are probably worst stocks to be in should a correction come ( eg U stocks ).

Anyways, since you have sold 3/4 of your portfolio you are in a perfect position to pick up the pieces when the correction finally does come.......that is providing you didn't spend it all on booze in Mexico.........

cheers MB

 

[rederob]

Chap's,

See you are all missing me.
My fair value range was [and is] $13.80 to $18.70
My *personal* buy point would be $8.00 to $10.00

With regards to the share price, hey it's a bullmarket. That said, I still maintain that it is overvalued and as an investment does not represent a safe purchase at these price levels.

If you are going to trade it, then who cares.

jog on
d998

Confirmation: BHP is now a buy.
Thanks duc.
I suspect Monday will be a bit too high a price to pay, but maybe later in the week.
Based on duc's fair value ranges, which are very successful at twice the quoted price, we have BHP with a chance of touching $37 this calendar year.
I do concede, however, my preference for buying BHP at closer to $10.
But with climate change the way it is, I am unsure of when hell will freeze over.

 

[ducati916]

And that is the point really isn't it.
A purchase at value lets you sit back and ignore the crowd. BHP at $10 was just such a purchase and now you would have been able to sell out at a 300% profit.

BHP at $29 is not such a comfortable purchase, you are now in with the herd.
Who knows what the herd will do?
Can you still ignore them if they run for the exits?

Value is rarely, if ever the popular choice.
If it's popular, hell son, it's overvalued.

jog on
d998

 

[Kauri]

And that is the point really isn't it.
A purchase at value lets you sit back and ignore the crowd. BHP at $10 was just such a purchase and now you would have been able to sell out at a 300% profit.

BHP at $29 is not such a comfortable purchase, you are now in with the herd.
Who knows what the herd will do?
Can you still ignore them if they run for the exits?

Value is rarely, if ever the popular choice.
If it's popular, hell son, it's overvalued.

jog on
d998

Duc,
Just wondering, was BHP at $10 a value purchase on its figures then as opposed to it being value at $10 on its current figures?

 

[ducati916]

Duc,
Just wondering, was BHP at $10 a value purchase on its figures then as opposed to it being value at $10 on its current figures?

Perceptive question.

As a cyclical, you have to value it on liquidating value. Will it survive and what if anything as a holder of the common might I see? [answer nothing]
If the answer is yes [to survival] and particularly if the leverage is high, [which it was] you then might have an attractive *speculation*.

This of course is the major problem with BHP [currently], it is a cyclical, and you are buying it at the top, or near top, of the commodity cycle to which it is leveraged. Thus a top down analysis in conjunction with a bottom up analysis is the order of the day.

Purely on the numbers [which is your question] no, BHP wasn't fair value at $10.00 it would have had to be lower still. But as I said, this is where you take a bigger picture view, and speculate intelligently [one hopes]. Would I have bought it at $10.00.......no chance.

jog on
d998

 

[haemitite]

You continually focus on price cycles Ducati. Whereas a smart investor would look at key factors such as

• Spectactular consolidation of resource ownership. We will be seeing a lot more market discipline & "sensisble competition" in years to come
• Volumes are much higher as well as prices.
• A scarcity of new mines in the near to mid term (0 to 5 years)
• last but not least, the BRIC countries are hardly going to evolve using plastic.