BHP - BHP Group

[pacer]

But I'm still with WAYNEL on a $23ish bottom....possibly lower if this commodity correction carries on........personally ...I'm still bullish...this is just a pull back till the markets rocket again....but i'll be shorting by october.....I'm scared of heights, and It's hard to jump out of my window to end it all.....sorry....you'll just have to put up with me for another year.......boooohooooo....,,,,,
Hey DUKES......pop out to the MT MANIA CLUB (Whangarei heads) AND SAY GIDDAY TO MY MUM & DAD.....BARB and AL.....You'll have a ball and a good feed....lol!....and meet some good people.....

Yesterday was a classic long punt for an overnight and ,carry-on trade,,,,trade trade,,,trade.......two gapps with a small bottom on the 6 month low....easy money within 3 days.....where are re the techies............I didn't do it myself, as I am playin' a new system, and am on holidays...but it was rather obvious guys,,,,doh.................$$$$$MISSED


burp!

 

[Bush Trader]

I apologise that data on RIO has been included in this thread, however the the FN Arena Tech Wizard's views on the two big miners are presented here in conjunction

Support Levels To Determine Direction For RIO, BHP
Source: FN Arena News - January 09 2007
It's crunch time for both Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP Billiton (BHP) shares, the Tech Wizard believes.

Charts not included.

He has noted that both shares have been struggling in the past few months in line with an equally struggling spot copper price. The first week of the new year proved be unquestionably bearish for copper (as well as for gold and other commodities including crude oil) and this has done quite a bit of damage to the technical charts for RIO and BHP, he says.

The Tech Wizard has now come to the conclusion that most price targets for Rio Tinto –high 90s and above 100 per share- may well be too optimistic. He says he is uncomfortable at present and this feeling might be reinforced by gold closing below US$600/oz on a weekly basis.

The Wizard says he regards this as a genuine possibility as he believes the outlook for gold appears ongoing bearish. However, a weekly close above US$600/oz is still possible and would keep the prospects of Rio Tinto shares reaching their price targets sometime throughout the year intact.

The Wizard believes real damage will be done to RIO 's prospects if the key support level at $64.85 is taken out on a weekly basis. Below that level there is no strong support levels until $50.00, he says, which would indicate the potential damage if the shares were to drop below key support.

BHP shares dropped to their key support level at $23.50 last week. The Wizard believes price action needs to hold at this level or we could see a nasty fall to $20.00.

Again he has noted fundamental analysts are all bullish with price targets ranging between $35.00 and $40.00. Watch out for the equity brokers reiterating their Buy recommendations on BHP this week to support their call for higher share prices later this year, he says. Unfortunately, this may not necessarily have a positive impact on BHP shares, he adds.

Adding to the Wizard's bearish sentiment is the fact that BHP's MACD reading is currently bearish and the Wizard would like to highlight this has been the case for the past few months. Needless to say, he adds, this would explain the selling pressure on the stock.

The Wizard strongly feels BHP shares will need to show some sort of a bounce this week, or at least a stabilising of the share price, as BHP has the same problem as RIO with no key support until way below at $20.00.

If either RIO or BHP shares would break down to their key support levels he suspects there will be a lot of red faces in the analysts' rooms at broking houses.

Were these key support levels to break in the next few weeks a lot of damage will be done to the profits and losses (P/Ls) of hedge funds and Super Funds who are holding BHP and RIO as the cornerstone of their resources portfolio, the Wizard says.

This may well be what is currently happening in the copper market already, he adds.

Cheers
It will be an interesting few days for both stocks

 

[spitrader1]

In nothing more than a punt, I took a short position at close today. Hope it doesn't hurt too much!

Enjoy reading fundamentals contributions (kennas, ducati et al), your knowledge helps others of us grow-cheers,

hector

this may pay off, you should see BHP open around 24.12

 

[sails]

this may pay off, you should see BHP open around 24.12

Well done! Low of the day so far @ 24.16. Do you mind sharing how you calculate this, spitrader?

 

[spitrader1]

Well done! Low of the day so far @ 24.16. Do you mind sharing how you calculate this, spitrader?

Nothing too hard-just going off the new york close in the ADR's. Its accurate 95% of the time ex any announcements to within about 10C.

 

[sails]

Nothing too hard-just going off the new york close in the ADR's. Its accurate 95% of the time ex any announcements to within about 10C.

I agree, you have been very close in your opening calls for BHP - but do you mind sharing the formula?

 

[hector]

Guys, I mistraded the classic candle formation yesterday. Should have entered long at the open, and should have had a bullish outlook at close...

Anyway, the short went well today, closed at open. BHP really struggling to shake the bears.

Cheers,
hector

 

[Sean K]

Commods mostly even by my data. Oil obviously off. Does this account for BHP sliding 2% in a generally benign environment?

Breaking through $24.00 again will be short term quite bearish to me.

Anyone else lining up a short?

 

[nizar]

Commods mostly even by my data. Oil obviously off. Does this account for BHP sliding 2% in a generally benign environment?

Breaking through $24.00 again will be short term quite bearish to me.

Anyone else lining up a short?

The Yanks consider BHP as an oil company.

 

[Kauri]

Commods mostly even by my data. Oil obviously off. Does this account for BHP sliding 2% in a generally benign environment?

Breaking through $24.00 again will be short term quite bearish to me.

Anyone else lining up a short?

In the short term quite possibly, "longer term" I have quite a few (Tech)reasons for it to bottom out between current price and $22.

 

[Sean K]

In the short term quite possibly, "longer term" I have quite a few (Tech)reasons for it to bottom out between current price and $22.

I have $22.00 as a target as well.

 

[Sean K]

In the short term quite possibly, "longer term" I have quite a few (Tech)reasons for it to bottom out between current price and $22.

So you're seeing a wave C ending somewhere between $22 and $24, for then another 5 wave up? Maybe.

 

[Kauri]

So you're seeing a wave C ending somewhere between $22 and $24, for then another 5 wave up? Maybe.

Hi Kennas...
It's a very big maybe, but yes. The .... coloured box (sorry a tad colour blind), is the typical W4 retracement area of 38% to 50% (with small over/under allowance). If it plays out that way then I would expect a wave up. I'm not too experienced with E/W so don't bank on my interpretation though.

 

[Ken]

When does bhp announce their dividend?

And what will it be?

 

[reece55]

Ken
Ex dividend date for BHP is normally at the end of Feb. They should announce this along with their quarterly report on 23 Jan 07, according to my corporate calendar.

Don't expect it to be big however - in recent years, BHP have only been paying about 24 cents, so its really on about 1% of capital invested at this level, ex franking.

Cheers
Reece

 

[Ken]

what will happen if the quarterly report for BHP is encouraging, and they are on target for record profits again?

will this swing BHP back into favour?

Or are we just waiting for stabilsing of commodity prices on a whole...

should we resign ourselves to BHP losing more ground over 2007.

How do brokers come up with target prices for RIO and BHP when they are both so far away?

Have the brokers recommendations changed recently????

 

[reece55]

Ken
Do yourself a favour and stop listening to analysts NOW. They are almost never right (use fundamental analysis most of the time to support their target, like BHP using a DCF model). Why did they constantly support a $35, $30 target - they got paid to, their firm wanted to make the stock attractive so their investing house could dump it, etc.

BHP's price may react positively to its quarterly report - but then again it may not. I prefer to let the chart do the talking - BHP has been in a downtrend since May 2006. Now, IMO there is a lot of support at about $23.50. We are now in the midst of testing this support. albeit we are about 50 cents off. Would I be rushing to dump my BHP now - well, I suppose that depends on your investment objectives - however, short term, I think its going to take a lot to get back to a bullish scenario again. Personally, I am not looking to go long until I see about 26.50 broken, on high volume with a close at the day high. This reflects my objectives in the stockmarket however - I prefer to use leverage to get an increased return in a short time period. If you were a value investor, this migh tbe different.

Cheers
Reece

 

[BSD]

Ken
Do yourself a favour and stop listening to analysts NOW. They are almost never right (use fundamental analysis most of the time to support their target, like BHP using a DCF model). Why did they constantly support a $35, $30 target - they got paid to, their firm wanted to make the stock attractive so their investing house could dump it, etc.

Cheers
Reece

Yeah Ken - forget the advisers to the billions, follow the graphs of the day traders who put their success down to leverage.

Who would be mad enough to use fundamentals and DCF?

Only instos would use such rubbish and what do they know- they only control 80%+ of volume...

Who paid them to be bullish and burn their clients/reputation/income streams?

 

[dhukka]

what will happen if the quarterly report for BHP is encouraging, and they are on target for record profits again?

will this swing BHP back into favour?

Or are we just waiting for stabilsing of commodity prices on a whole...

should we resign ourselves to BHP losing more ground over 2007.

How do brokers come up with target prices for RIO and BHP when they are both so far away?

Have the brokers recommendations changed recently????

Ken, according to Huntley's data on Commsec FY07 eps is forecast at 286 cps down from 290.2 30 days ago and 294.6 60 days ago. FY08 eps is forecast at 292.4 up from 288.4 30 days ago and 274.6 60 days ago. Not terribly significant in and of themselves. Remember last quarter's results are in the bag, the recent commodity price falls won't affect them.

How do analysts come up with their target prices? Believe me you don't want to know. But I'll give you a method that is just as accurate. Grab a dartboard and change the numbers. Change 10 to $24.00 11 to $25.00 12 to $26.00 13 to $27.00 etc. Then do the same in the opposite direction for the lower numbers 9 to $23.00 8 to $22.00 etc. Throw one dart and that's your target price (have another throw if you get a bullseye). There will be the odd analyst who is a good darts player but most of them will be lucky to hit the board. Personally I'd be aiming for the 1.

 

[Ken]

well i dont know where else to park my money

who knows whats going to happen, look back over posts, and there so much speculation.

everyone on here has a different opinion because they trade differently, short, long, day etc

all i know is BHP is very red for me right now and i am trying to figure out if the commodity boom is gone and dusted or there is still upside.