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BHP - BHP Group

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my BHP owe me around $28.96 ( ignoring the S32 spin-off )

i guess at the worst i will have more opportunities to buy extra BHP cheaper in the future

i might not get a second bite at my cheapest parcel of $14.80 , but sub-$25 should be possible for the patient , using the logic of rising prices ( inflation ) pressuring investors to seek better yields from their investments
 

BHP​

Updated: 20 minutes ago




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The Diagram below breaks down the 2008 swing into its sections and compares it against the current swing . Notice the pitch of trend in 2008 is very similar to the current 2022 pitch of trend and the time counts also balance between both swings which is a strong indication we could be running up against this swing . From the 12th June 2008 we ran up 12 days into the 24th June which balances against the 13 day swing into the 8th June 2022 top and more importantly the 42 day swing down into the 5th Aug 2008 Low balances exactly against the projected 19th July 2022 swing low which I will outline in the notes below . The clues are in the detail but most people are to lazy to make a proper detailed examination of the price and time components across such a long period of time . Gann knew the masses were lazy which is why his work is veiled and coded and he knew the majority of people were not prepared to put in the work to reap the returns . You can have as many technical indicators as you like on a chart but if you cant read the basic market structure with just a bar chart and recognise what Cycle you are running against you have not properly mastered the basic foundation which is form and pattern reading so how can you expect to move onto the Square of Nine and the more complicated aspects of price Forecasting if you cant read basic market structure and conduct proper swing analysis .



In the chart below I will present a price Curve which contains four important turning dates out till September . The first date to watch is the 19th July and if we continue to move down into this point we could be Low so that is the first important Cycle date I am looking at for the moment then if we make Low into this date we should be up till at least the 8th August for counter trend top around a 20 day projected up move . From there we could be down till the 25th Aug for Low which comes in as a strong Cycle date . and then the next date to watch is the 9th Sept which has two intermediate Cycles converging into this date but the present focus is on the 19th July setting up as Low and then up till the 8th August which is the first section of the swing I am concentrating on . If you look at the 2008 swing down into the 5th Aug it measures 22.10% so we are very close to figure at the moment with the current swing down sitting at 21.28% so keep an eye on price and see if we continue to move down into the 19th July for Low and balance against any of these figures .



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Student of Gann said:

BHP​

Updated: 20 minutes ago




View attachment 144022
7bbee1_692bc18662984f0d8495c1dd2f390ca1~mv2.webp




The Diagram below breaks down the 2008 swing into its sections and compares it against the current swing . Notice the pitch of trend in 2008 is very similar to the current 2022 pitch of trend and the time counts also balance between both swings which is a strong indication we could be running up against this swing . From the 12th June 2008 we ran up 12 days into the 24th June which balances against the 13 day swing into the 8th June 2022 top and more importantly the 42 day swing down into the 5th Aug 2008 Low balances exactly against the projected 19th July 2022 swing low which I will outline in the notes below . The clues are in the detail but most people are to lazy to make a proper detailed examination of the price and time components across such a long period of time . Gann knew the masses were lazy which is why his work is veiled and coded and he knew the majority of people were not prepared to put in the work to reap the returns . You can have as many technical indicators as you like on a chart but if you cant read the basic market structure with just a bar chart and recognise what Cycle you are running against you have not properly mastered the basic foundation which is form and pattern reading so how can you expect to move onto the Square of Nine and the more complicated aspects of price Forecasting if you cant read basic market structure and conduct proper swing analysis .



In the chart below I will present a price Curve which contains four important turning dates out till September . The first date to watch is the 19th July and if we continue to move down into this point we could be Low so that is the first important Cycle date I am looking at for the moment then if we make Low into this date we should be up till at least the 8th August for counter trend top around a 20 day projected up move . From there we could be down till the 25th Aug for Low which comes in as a strong Cycle date . and then the next date to watch is the 9th Sept which has two intermediate Cycles converging into this date but the present focus is on the 19th July setting up as Low and then up till the 8th August which is the first section of the swing I am concentrating on . If you look at the 2008 swing down into the 5th Aug it measures 22.10% so we are very close to figure at the moment with the current swing down sitting at 21.28% so keep an eye on price and see if we continue to move down into the 19th July for Low and balance against any of these figures .



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Nickel West looks to be getting some long term contractual interest, locking in reliable suppliers will be a critical issue for auto makers.

smallcaps.com.au

Ford secures supply of battery minerals from ASX-listed resources companies

Ford Motor Company announced this week it will push forward a number of deals to accelerate its electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing to keep up with global
smallcaps.com.au smallcaps.com.au
From the article:
The world’s largest mining company BHP (ASX: BHP) has also entered into a MoU with Ford. Ford will source nickel from BHP’s Nickel West operations in WA.

Nickel West is considered to produce some of the most sustainable and lowest carbon intensity nickel in the world.

The multi-year nickel supply agreement could start as early as 2025 and may involve additional commodities over time.


IDNH
 
sptrawler said:
Nickel West looks to be getting some long term contractual interest, locking in reliable suppliers will be a critical issue for auto makers.

smallcaps.com.au

Ford secures supply of battery minerals from ASX-listed resources companies

Ford Motor Company announced this week it will push forward a number of deals to accelerate its electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing to keep up with global
smallcaps.com.au smallcaps.com.au
From the article:
The world’s largest mining company BHP (ASX: BHP) has also entered into a MoU with Ford. Ford will source nickel from BHP’s Nickel West operations in WA.

Nickel West is considered to produce some of the most sustainable and lowest carbon intensity nickel in the world.

The multi-year nickel supply agreement could start as early as 2025 and may involve additional commodities over time.


IDNH
Click to expand...
sounds like MCR ( i hold 'free-carried' ) has a bit longer on the supply contracts
 
The $US21.3 billion underlying profit from continuing operations, which does not include petroleum assets now sold to Woodside, and the $US3.25 per share of total dividends for the year were both better than analysts had expected.

Shareholders will receive a $US1.75 a share final dividend on 22 September.

Of course, all posting carries risk, of being seen as a shameless self-promoter
 
CityIndex said:
The ASX200 was already poised for a stronger open after gains on Wall Street overnight. Of course, all trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see if the bumper BHP earnings help the index take out another key psychological level at 7100 today.
Click to expand...
That would be nice for all Shareholders in this difficult time.
 
"The company started the year with net debt of $US4.1bn but that was reduced to just $US333m and almost certainly the company’s recent cash flow means it now has no debt whatsoever."

Behind the bumper dividend, a new BHP is emerging

Behind the stunning 2021-22 BHP profit and dividend is the emergence of a new era in the life of “The Big Australian”.

The BHP that is emerging from the bonanza of last year will place much greater emphasis on capital investments, with two of its three new major projects in Australia. And, as I will explain below, in my view there is no certainty that the new BHP will include OZ Minerals.

To underline the looming change in BHP we need to set out just what happened in 2021-22. Using numbers that include oil, which has been hived off, the company’s cash flow rose from $US27.23bn to $US32.20bn and the final dividends paid out rose from $US7.9bn to $US17.8bn. The company started the year with net debt of $US4.1bn but that was reduced to just $US333m and almost certainly the company’s recent cash flow means it now has no debt whatsoever.

BHP has said that its comfortable with debt of between $US5bn and $US15bn but in fact, given the state of the BHP balance sheet, if the returns from a project were high enough it could borrow much more. And it would almost certainly do so.

So, with 2021-22 behind it BHP is like a coiled spring looking for opportunities to be released. The company last year invested around $US7bn and now plans to lift that by 42 per cent to $10bn, and I suspect that if the opportunity arose it would go higher. And that $10bn doesn’t include any acquisitions such as OZ Minerals.

BHP, like many other companies, now realises that the giant automotive industry is going to switch to electrical vehicles at a much faster pace than previously thought, so demand for copper and nickel will explode. BHP proudly claims that it has the largest copper “endowment” of any company in the world. A large slab of the “endowment” is of course in Chile with Escondida. But the biggest single “endowment” is at Olympic Dam and at nearby Oak Dam.

In recent years the company has spent large sums trying to leach copper out of the Olympic Dam ore but failed to make it economic. It now plans to build a giant smelter next to its current smelter to extract copper, uranium, gold and other minerals from the giant Olympic Dam/Oak ore bodies using underground mining.

The plans have not yet been signed off by the board and require the usual approval processes, but it is a stunning switch in strategic thinking by BHP, which previously rejected duplicating the current smelter built by Western Mining many years ago.

The company says it has the “second-largest nickel sulphide endowment globally”. Nickel is going to be essential in batteries and there is a looming world shortage.

BHP is planning to substantially increase its nickel output from the nickel deposits in areas that were household names during the Poseidon nickel boom. It is as though the 1970s nickel boom was half a century too early.

The Olympic Dam smelter will probably cost in the vicinity of $US2bn to $US3bn, or roughly half the investment in the Canadian potash development.

BHP is also looking to speed up potash so as to get it to market faster.

In non-oil areas the company has not had a great success rate in exploration and now boldly claims that it will achieve growth “through exploration focused on copper and nickel”. Around the world small explorers are achieving better results than the giants so this is a bold claim by BHP.

OZ Minerals is clearly an excellent acquisition for BHP because it has great copper potential in both South Australia and WA. But I sense the culture of the two companies are different and it will be hard to gain agreement unless BHP is prepared to pay a price that is so good that OZ Minerals shareholders have no choice but to accept. The current offer is not at that level.

BHP has evolved into a high-performance company that looks at everything from a return basis. This is very different to the BHP of previous decades, which was about the increasing the ore reserves of the company.

OZ Minerals is more like the old BHP and has a culture where employees are incredibly frank about their love for the company. It created a cultural corporate island which will almost certainly extend to the board. In the end shareholders will decide but the bid will need to be high.

Looking forward to the current year, the BHP profit powerhouse — iron ore — achieved its stunning results on the basis of an iron ore price around the current market level and so, theoretically, if iron ore stays at the current price then BHP will repeat its 2021-22 revenue line. The company has warned that costs are rising around 6 per cent, led by raw materials and labour. Of course, if the iron ore price was to fall, say to $US80 a tonne, that would impact revenue sharply.

The company exported 290 million tonnes of iron ore and in the next few years will increase that to around 330 million tonnes but no drastic increase.

The Chinese want to diversify their supplies and are very anxious to develop the Simandou mine in Guinea, Africa. Rio Tinto is no certainty to be involved but that won’t stop the Chinese pushing forward. The Simandou rival to Australian iron ore will take many years to come into production and will operate at a much higher operational and environmental cost.

ROBERT GOTTLIEBSEN
BUSINESS COLUMNIST
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