BHP - BHP Group

[qldfrog]

if the potash from BHP had any more potential they wouldn't have time to talk about anything else , quite a shame since it is mining iron , copper and coal in profit ( unlike phosphate )

and wondering if their potash dreams will end up like the shale oil adventure

for silver production S32 produces a bit

the question NOT currently being asked is , are they major producers over-using fertilizers to force maximum output

Potash and BHP: was already the booming story when i worked for them in 2008, that and Olympic dam..fast forward 15y..and same or backward.
What a pathetic management.
I just hope their "style" will not contaminate Woodside

 

[divs4ever]

Potash and BHP: was already the booming story when i worked for them in 2008, that and Olympic dam..fast forward 15y..and same or backward.
What a pathetic management.
I just hope their "style" will not contaminate Woodside

was not aware they have been at potash that far back , that doesn't improve my optimism at all , and was bemused when the Olympic Dam expansion was put on hold and pushed forwards on South American copper

 

[qldfrog]

was not aware they have been at potash that far back , that doesn't improve my optimism at all , and was bemused when the Olympic Dam expansion was put on hold and pushed forwards on South American copper

Canadian mine, colleague of mine went there.. then had to change job as nothing was moving then..long time ago so could be 2009 do not quote me on dates but definitively more than 10y pending/stalling as i remember

 

[Telamelo]

Hopefully BHP get their act together "quick smart" on potash projects (finger's crossed).

Like @divs4ever mentioned earlier at least BHP profitable with iron ore, coal & copper at the moment (thank god) lol.

 

[Telamelo]

 

[divs4ever]

maybe i am secretly Warren Buffet's love child , but gee i don't see value in BHP at current prices , and more alarmingly they got rid of that poison pill making them likely for a leveraged buy-out attempt ( which is more likely to distract rather than succeed )

 

[Skate]

maybe i am secretly Warren Buffet's love child , but gee i don't see value in BHP at current prices , and more alarmingly they got rid of that poison pill making them likely for a leveraged buy-out attempt ( which is more likely to distract rather than succeed )

@Telamelo, I appreciate you are very bullish on (BHP) & @divs4ever not so much. I purely wish to make a comment about one of our design flaws "confirmation bias". This bias rejects all information right in front of a trader's eyes because it is contrary to what they want to believe.

For discretionary trading
Confirmation bias (trading discretionary) is one of our worst enemies because we want to see "what we want to see" & convince ourselves that the decision we are going to make is the correct one. But you can take it from me, there is always self-doubt trading this way.

Who do you believe?
Simply Wall Street or Trading Central as they have a different value for (BHP). Why? because they use two different investment analytics, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price momentum & sentiment values. Both companies use their own propriety artificial intelligence-driven analysis with sentimental analysis on thousands of credible news and social media sources every day to identify buzzing stocks and how they are perceived by the public.

Disclaimer
I hold (BHP)

Skate.

 

[Telamelo]

@Telamelo, I appreciate you are very bullish on (BHP) & @divs4ever not so much. I purely wish to make a comment about one of our design flaws "confirmation bias". This bias rejects all information right in front of a trader's eyes because it is contrary to what they want to believe.

For discretionary trading
Confirmation bias (trading discretionary) is one of our worst enemies because we want to see "what we want to see" & convince ourselves that the decision we are going to make is the correct one. But you can take it from me, there is always self-doubt trading this way.

Who do you believe?
Simply Wall Street or Trading Central as they have a different value for (BHP) because they use two different investment analytics, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price momentum & sentiment values. Both companies use their own propriety artificial intelligence-driven analysis with sentimental analysis on thousands of credible news and social media sources every day to identify buzzing stocks and how they are perceived by the public.

View attachment 143039

Disclaimer
I hold (BHP)

Skate.

Thanks @Skate for highlighting that useful information as I hold BHP longer term for it's dividend yield (regardless of whether am bullish or not). I just happen to have checked Simply Wall St & thought of sharing. There's also FT Market's that I've used in the past to get an idea of "fair valuation" and price target's of a particular stock.

It's interesting seeing/noting the significant variation though from one analyst/broker compared to another.

Cheers tela

 

[divs4ever]

@Telamelo, I appreciate you are very bullish on (BHP) & @divs4ever not so much. I purely wish to make a comment about one of our design flaws "confirmation bias". This bias rejects all information right in front of a trader's eyes because it is contrary to what they want to believe.

For discretionary trading
Confirmation bias (trading discretionary) is one of our worst enemies because we want to see "what we want to see" & convince ourselves that the decision we are going to make is the correct one. But you can take it from me, there is always self-doubt trading this way.

Who do you believe?
Simply Wall Street or Trading Central as they have a different value for (BHP). Why? because they use two different investment analytics, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price momentum & sentiment values. Both companies use their own propriety artificial intelligence-driven analysis with sentimental analysis on thousands of credible news and social media sources every day to identify buzzing stocks and how they are perceived by the public.

View attachment 143039
Disclaimer
I hold (BHP)

Skate.

i too hold BHP ( as a sad and lonely core-holding ) again for the divs , but not DRPed and they introduced the DRP scheme too late to fit my plans , 2011 to 2015 i would have been all over a BHP DRP .

now regarding BHP as a business it is rapidly shrinking itself , and while revenues and earnings have grown have they matched REAL inflation over the last 3 years , i haven't seen a mention of a restart of the Brazil JV that allegedly was producing 3% of the world's iron pellets ( but that has been a beautiful windfall for my GRR holding ) , it might be me but BHP seems to be trapped in a consolidation cycle , while the world is acting like a commodity super-cycle is in progress .

the demerger of S32 was probably a good thing , but BHP just keeps divesting assets , and is slow bringing new projects on line ( not just the potash ) have they locked themselves into only developing ' super-size ' projects and not advancing the smaller , quicker projects , ( which would still be LARGE for many miners )

i will be watching BHP but i won't be rushing to add i grabbed a comfortable amount before the S32 demerger

i bought my last BHP parcel in January 2016 ( still carrying the S32 and WDS assets ) @ $14.80 , so after the demergers way under $10 worth , now apart from cutting costs and liabilities who would like to explain where the other $30 of 'extra value ' is coming from , given earnings and revenue are expected to decline in the coming couple of years , and yes i realize currently several commodities are trading at nose-bleed highs , but they cannot last in the current economic climate

 

[divs4ever]

Morningstar™ Consensus​

Morningstar Consensus

	CURRENT	2022	2023
EPS ($)	4.00	6.20	5.32
DPS ($)	3.57	5.02	3.83
Franking	100.00	--	--

Goldman Sachs​

Goldman Sachs

	06/21	06/22E	06/23E	06/24E
EPS ($)	3.38	4.69	3.78	2.93
DPS ($)	3.01	3.50	2.76	2.04

now my average share price ( because i was averaging them down for 5 years ) is $28.96 , allowing for the S32 and WDS demergers you could say BHP owes me something like $20 ( not counting normal div. payments )

all i can say is good luck buying BHP above $40 in the current inflationary trend and hoping to resist inflation with the divs ,

i reckon you should be looking for a 10% yearly return ( plus franking ) currently for any chance to keep level with official inflation as it grows

( and unless FMG stumbles badly that would be a better place to start looking )

( i started accumulating FMG in August 2021 )

cheers

 

[qldfrog]

Morningstar™ Consensus​

Morningstar Consensus

	CURRENT	2022	2023
EPS ($)	4.00	6.20	5.32
DPS ($)	3.57	5.02	3.83
Franking	100.00	--	--

Goldman Sachs​

Goldman Sachs

	06/21	06/22E	06/23E	06/24E
EPS ($)	3.38	4.69	3.78	2.93
DPS ($)	3.01	3.50	2.76	2.04

now my average share price ( because i was averaging them down for 5 years ) is $28.96 , allowing for the S32 and WDS demergers you could say BHP owes me something like $20 ( not counting normal div. payments )

all i can say is good luck buying BHP above $40 in the current inflationary trend and hoping to resist inflation with the divs ,

i reckon you should be looking for a 10% yearly return ( plus franking ) currently for any chance to keep level with official inflation as it grows

( and unless FMG stumbles badly that would be a better place to start looking )

( i started accumulating FMG in August 2021 )

cheers

I have my own bias and find it very hard to shake after spending nearly a decade working within/with them.
SP was above 40$-2008 then and they made strategic mistakes ever since not to mention the internal management and the shrinking...
Mining is very different from other business.
your assets already disappear as you mine them and your costs increase for restoration of sites.
And bad mining can also mean you get the best assets first to show great quarter figures..and doing so destroy and waste the actual ressource destroying overall return.something i saw done far too often
Blue sky becomes darker ahead unless you grow these assets via purchase and juniors acquisition.
BHP a dying dinosaur remains my view and no amount of purple hair discriminatory hiring lgbtxxxxv and green washing can change that.
I tried again a parcel this year to shake that bias but was quickly thrown out by SL.and that was good
Their offloading the petrol side is IMHO the best indicator to go buy Woodside.might try to time that last one.
Nearly wanted to go FMG but they then started their own green washing BS.

 

[divs4ever]

well can Twiggy do more than wash , if done properly hydrogen and other moves can work ( at least in some areas ) so far the trend ( and cult of narrative ) say no , but MAYBE FMG will embarrass all and get it to work ( AND make a profit from it )

from what i have seen in recent years BHP will be pushed into the same agenda , and don't seem to have the talent to get it done ( properly ) .

time will tell and maybe the Russia thing will wake up the whole mining and energy sector , that the ESG agenda is flawed from the ( hypocritical ) top down and the only way carbon will be cut is no mining , no fossil fuels , no manufacturing and everybody will walk the fields and parks to find their daily fungus to eat ( and god forbid they use shovels to dig truffles .

this 'green-washing' thing will have to fail spectacularly to force to narrative abandonment once the masses realize the current pain was mostly planned carefully ( except the Russian resistance to collapse ) the masses will force change ( at many levels )

 

[Skate]

BHP a dying dinosaur remains my view and no amount of purple hair discriminatory hiring lgbtxxxxv and green washing can change that.

@qldfrog I hear what you say but AFAIC we will need steel well into the future.

if done properly hydrogen and other moves can work - the masses will force change ( at many levels )

The acquisition of (WDS) that's another matter as the value of those shares has been converted to (FMG) for the reason @divs4ever stated.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

@qldfrog I hear what you say but AFAIC we will need steel well into the future.

but will it be Australian smelted steel , or even made from Australian iron ore , we have this crazy idea of outsourcing stuff we can do ourselves ,

we have this obsession for shooting ourselves in the knees

 

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog I hear what you say but AFAIC we will need steel well into the future.



The acquisition of (WDS) that's another matter as the value of those shares has been converted to (FMG) for the reason @divs4ever stated.

Skate.

True but i do not expect BHP to handle that they will be bought or split untill only a Singapore trading board remains.
FMG..let them split the green h2 and buy iron side or just go for a pure iron second tier.
We are the country i think with the most new renewable: solar/wind per head.. we can not even provide power to the grid this week.
Mass H2 is doable but we would be 100% dependent on China solar panels, think Russia and the cost..my god..
So yes gov subsidies etc but once Australia is broke.. let's talk about H2 in 1y.the good think with FMG..or Rio is that this green side is so far only talk.
So i have no issue with fmg/rio investment now.
I went in earlier but got out on trailing SL for both.will do it again

 

[qldfrog]

Sooner or later,most probably conveniently when the narrative collapses, the CO2 as cause will be dismissed as it should and real culprit..human activities aka our 8+billions population lifestyle will be the focus.nothing that a nice nuclear war can not fix..
We will still need steel, energy of some sort and some mining .but i do not see BHP present then .whereas i still see Rio and FMG

 

[bk1]

we have this crazy idea of outsourcing stuff we can do ourselves

We cannot do it ourselves. We will never be able to do it ourselves.
We cannot match price with any of our neighbours to MAKE ANYTHING.
Look at the auto companies lining up to invest in a certain country to our immediate north. Look at the auto companies lining up to build giga factories ANYWHERE but here.
We cannot manufacture at scale and speed which is what is required of these industries.
The hydrogen produced by FMG will be very expensive and targeted initially, at local industry clusters. Unless any of these miners can scale up significantly to bring down price this is going to be a slow road.
If China enters Hydrogen production with intent what do think would happen to any nascent Australian industry?
Want to be a player? it will need a combination of increased scale, automation and moving production to countries with cheaper workers.

Run that one past Albo' and Dr Forrest.

 

[divs4ever]

True but i do not expect BHP to handle that they will be bought or split untill only a Singapore trading board remains.
FMG..let them split the green h2 and buy iron side or just go for a pure iron second tier.
We are the country i think with the most new renewable: solar/wind per head.. we can not even provide power to the grid this week.
Mass H2 is doable but we would be 100% dependent on China solar panels, think Russia and the cost..my god..
So yes gov subsidies etc but once Australia is broke.. let's talk about H2 in 1y.the good think with FMG..or Rio is that this green side is so far only talk.
So i have no issue with fmg/rio investment now.
I went in earlier but got out on trailing SL for both.will do it again

actually the 'renewable ' title probably goes to NZ where the government half-owns most of the players , and they already have wind , hydro and geothermal assets , ( i would assume some solar as well )

now there was an election promise to have NZ 100% renewable power , but have seen no real progress in that direction ( i hold CEN , GNE , MCY and MEZ ) which is a bit disappointing since the government is the majority holder in GNE , MCY and MEZ ( you could understand CEN shuffling it's feet , but the others ? )

 

[divs4ever]

We cannot do it ourselves. We will never be able to do it ourselves.
We cannot match price with any of our neighbours to MAKE ANYTHING.

we CAN ( and have done , it ourselves )

price doesn't matter if the offset is full employment and reduced imports , as Russia currently showing us , IF the money is circulating INSIDE your local economy inflation is controllable , it is when the money needs to go into the wider world inflation and exchange rates count

so we would end up with a basic car , a basic mobile phone , a basic fridge etc etc . we have plenty of local resources including mothballed uranium mines , and copper mines , we have land to grow wheat , beef and sheep , so we won't win the space-race is that so bad ??

 

[Value Collector]

was not aware they have been at potash that far back , that doesn't improve my optimism at all , and was bemused when the Olympic Dam expansion was put on hold and pushed forwards on South American copper

Potash has taken so long partly because it’s a huge project, and also partly because the potash market was in over supply for a period of time, so they weren’t in a rush to bring it into production.

But, it is a huge deposit of potash, I believe over 100 years worth of mining there, so once it begins production it should be a great asset to have in the portfolio.