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BHP - BHP Group

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there is a very high chance i will not be alive in 100 years time

and the way BHP is going it might not even turn a profit on that project in my lifetime

but maybe that is an over-looked flaw in BHP , the fixation on buying 'world-class projects ' rather than a mix of 'highly prospective projects ' and top level assets
 

I reckon I have 30 years left, so still time to invest in BHP I think.

BHP have been pretty clear in their strategic plan on assets to foster. Long term, through the cycles, and now 'future' metals: Iron, Copper, Nickel, Potash.

Shaving off medium projects to S32 and shunting O&G to WPG was strategically smart I think. Particularly with the potential forward ESG commitments. The amount of carbon credits those companies are going to have to buy will be astronomical to gain credit.

I suspect that the pendulum will shift back at some point and they will develop quite a significant exploration portfolio because they'll need to spent all the free cash flow they're generating.
 
well the GP who wrote up the case for a disability pension reckons i have a 50/50 chance of another 4 years , but then things got complicatedly ( before that pesky virus )

lucky for me i don't have a life insurance policy ( usually mandatory on mortgages ) the premiums would be a killer

now folks assume that these bankers have got this ESG thing right ( i don't )

i think a banker preaching ethics and social responsibility to ME , makes my skin crawl ( or is that spider senses ) and yes i was working for Rupert when he heavied Johnny Howard into swallowing this narrative

now improving productivity and efficiency is fine by me , but increasing paperwork , regulation , and tax schemes doesn't count as productivity in my book

OH and those following the saga of the house and solar array ( on it ) well they replaced the solar panels ( ALL of them ) and now it seems there is a second issue ( possibly over-loaded the inverter , in mid-winter OR we are up for another rewiring that would be number five in seven years .. good thing only tradesmen handle electrical stuff , isn't it ) but at least only a one week gap should cut the 'phone negotiations ' a little

moral of the story , if you go solar buy a violin you are liable to get plenty of practice ( or better still sign up for a law degree , so you can access the uni. libraries cheap , you will be needing the research 'cos the solicitor won't put in that time )
 
I have no doubt their potash ash business will be profitable, it’s of a very large scale so it’s cost will be low / tonne, and it sits right above the “bread basket” of America.

I delved deep in learning about the fertiliser business a few years ago, and came to the decision that it was to early to be in potash ash, but I think we are getting pretty close to perfect timing now.

Here is a video from Mosaic, they own a potash mine that neighbours BHP’s one, it’s explains what potash is, it’s a very good video of you are interested.

Over all potash will only be a small business for BHP, but it’s a welcome addition to their portfolio.


You will have to click the link to watch it on the YouTube website, they don’t allow embedded play back for some reason
 

The benefit of owning a mine with a very long of life of say 100 years, is that you get to collect dividends from that mine for a life time, with out depleting the capital value of that mine.

Eg, a 100 year mine life means you can benefit from the dividends produced for 30 years, and after that still have a valuable asset with a 70 year life remaining, which you can then sell for a lump sum.

Where as a mine with a 10 year life will pay you dividends for 10 years, but then it’s capital value will be reduced to $0, and you can’t sell it, so a large portion of your annual dividend was actually a capital return from depleting your asset, not all profit to you.

So there is a lot of benefit to owning a mine with a long life, and you can benefit from that long mine life even if that mine life exceeds your own expected life.
 
Value Collector said:
Over all potash will only be a small business for BHP, but it’s a welcome addition to their portfolio.
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i was hoping it would contribute enough to replace the oil/gas/petroleum arm , or at least reverse the shale oil misadventure , because eventually they will also be pressured to exit coal , since activist share-holders seem to be making policies .

yes a few years back i looked at a couple of ASX listed potash stocks and came to the same conclusion , i will be looking for WES to snap up a small miner to bolt on to their chemical/explosives/fertilizer arm
 
but , but , i am over 65 and the life-expectancy isn't as long as it might be , i would rather a mine with a 10 year life-span making a profit now , and let the government mourn the lack of capital gains , when they settle up the estate

the other type of miner i like is the guys that start digging ( profitably ) and then use some of the profits to drill more test holes on the unexplored parts of the lease , hoping to extend the project life as grades drop at the initial dig
 
Potash won’t come close to the size of the oil and gas business, but you can always just keep those WDS shares in the bottom draw and collect the dividends on them, and treat them as they are still part of the same over all portfolio.
 
i already had some WPL , i will be watching to see if WDS can lift their game with the new staff injection ( WPL was already on the list of potential exits before the deal )
 
Skate said:
@divs4ever being 69 myself I recently remarked to my doctor that "old age has nothing going for it".

His reply was, "don't worry, it doesn't last long"

Skate.
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no it is the heart issue that is the problem and the complication ( no shoulder reconstruction , because they are worried about the heart ) , and the various doctors seem to be happy despite the stats declining
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Why are there so many old drunks and so few old doctors?

gg
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@Garpal Gumnut, I know that's a rhetorical question but I believe drunks have taken the time & effort to "pickle" themselves. I'm talking about those who exhibit a large protruding belly having their fair share of healthy gut bacteria. This bacterium is one of many probiotics which are beneficial to their overall health.

Now you should know this from your experience at the "Ross Island Hotel". It's near impossible to get rid of a drunk & I believe old Nick doesn't want to have them at his party either. That's the reason why there are so many of them.

I should also mention that alcohol has a lot of vitamin "P" that makes them go to the toilet so frequently.

Skate.
 
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yes but the minefield in front of us is future ( div. ) earnings

now yes , my av. price is sub $30 for BHP so all looks fine SO FAR , but i am expecting changes .

is this super-cycle just getting started or is it peaking ( with a deep recession on the horizon )
 
The Motley Fool had an article today about BHP

According to consensus estimates, the market is expecting the BHP dividend to peak in FY 2022.

But the good news is that this doesn’t necessarily mean that its future yields won’t be attractive.

Consensus estimates are for dividends per share of:

US $3.46 in FY 2022
US $2.64 in FY 2023
US $2.02 in FY 2024
US $1.77 in FY 2025
 
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