Potash and BHP: was already the booming story when i worked for them in 2008, that and Olympic dam..fast forward 15y..and same or backward.if the potash from BHP had any more potential they wouldn't have time to talk about anything else , quite a shame since it is mining iron , copper and coal in profit ( unlike phosphate )
and wondering if their potash dreams will end up like the shale oil adventure
for silver production S32 produces a bit
the question NOT currently being asked is , are they major producers over-using fertilizers to force maximum output
was not aware they have been at potash that far back , that doesn't improve my optimism at all , and was bemused when the Olympic Dam expansion was put on hold and pushed forwards on South American copperPotash and BHP: was already the booming story when i worked for them in 2008, that and Olympic dam..fast forward 15y..and same or backward.
What a pathetic management.
I just hope their "style" will not contaminate Woodside
Canadian mine, colleague of mine went there.. then had to change job as nothing was moving then..long time ago so could be 2009 do not quote me on dates but definitively more than 10y pending/stalling as i rememberwas not aware they have been at potash that far back , that doesn't improve my optimism at all , and was bemused when the Olympic Dam expansion was put on hold and pushed forwards on South American copper
maybe i am secretly Warren Buffet's love child , but gee i don't see value in BHP at current prices , and more alarmingly they got rid of that poison pill making them likely for a leveraged buy-out attempt ( which is more likely to distract rather than succeed )
Thanks @Skate for highlighting that useful information as I hold BHP longer term for it's dividend yield (regardless of whether am bullish or not). I just happen to have checked Simply Wall St & thought of sharing. There's also FT Market's that I've used in the past to get an idea of "fair valuation" and price target's of a particular stock.@Telamelo, I appreciate you are very bullish on (BHP) & @divs4ever not so much. I purely wish to make a comment about one of our design flaws "confirmation bias". This bias rejects all information right in front of a trader's eyes because it is contrary to what they want to believe.
For discretionary trading
Confirmation bias (trading discretionary) is one of our worst enemies because we want to see "what we want to see" & convince ourselves that the decision we are going to make is the correct one. But you can take it from me, there is always self-doubt trading this way.
Who do you believe?
Simply Wall Street or Trading Central as they have a different value for (BHP) because they use two different investment analytics, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price momentum & sentiment values. Both companies use their own propriety artificial intelligence-driven analysis with sentimental analysis on thousands of credible news and social media sources every day to identify buzzing stocks and how they are perceived by the public.
View attachment 143039
Disclaimer
I hold (BHP)
Skate.
i too hold BHP ( as a sad and lonely core-holding ) again for the divs , but not DRPed and they introduced the DRP scheme too late to fit my plans , 2011 to 2015 i would have been all over a BHP DRP .@Telamelo, I appreciate you are very bullish on (BHP) & @divs4ever not so much. I purely wish to make a comment about one of our design flaws "confirmation bias". This bias rejects all information right in front of a trader's eyes because it is contrary to what they want to believe.
For discretionary trading
Confirmation bias (trading discretionary) is one of our worst enemies because we want to see "what we want to see" & convince ourselves that the decision we are going to make is the correct one. But you can take it from me, there is always self-doubt trading this way.
Who do you believe?
Simply Wall Street or Trading Central as they have a different value for (BHP). Why? because they use two different investment analytics, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price momentum & sentiment values. Both companies use their own propriety artificial intelligence-driven analysis with sentimental analysis on thousands of credible news and social media sources every day to identify buzzing stocks and how they are perceived by the public.
View attachment 143039
Disclaimer
I hold (BHP)
Skate.
| CURRENT | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS ($) | 4.00 | 6.20 | 5.32 |
| DPS ($) | 3.57 | 5.02 | 3.83 |
| Franking | 100.00 | -- | -- |
| 06/21 | 06/22E | 06/23E | 06/24E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS ($) | 3.38 | 4.69 | 3.78 | 2.93 |
| DPS ($) | 3.01 | 3.50 | 2.76 | 2.04 |
I have my own bias and find it very hard to shake after spending nearly a decade working within/with them.Morningstar™ Consensus
Morningstar Consensus
CURRENT 2022 2023 EPS ($) 4.00 6.20 5.32 DPS ($) 3.57 5.02 3.83 Franking 100.00 -- --
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
06/21 06/22E 06/23E 06/24E EPS ($) 3.38 4.69 3.78 2.93 DPS ($) 3.01 3.50 2.76 2.04
now my average share price ( because i was averaging them down for 5 years ) is $28.96 , allowing for the S32 and WDS demergers you could say BHP owes me something like $20 ( not counting normal div. payments )
all i can say is good luck buying BHP above $40 in the current inflationary trend and hoping to resist inflation with the divs ,
i reckon you should be looking for a 10% yearly return ( plus franking ) currently for any chance to keep level with official inflation as it grows
( and unless FMG stumbles badly that would be a better place to start looking )
( i started accumulating FMG in August 2021 )
cheers
BHP a dying dinosaur remains my view and no amount of purple hair discriminatory hiring lgbtxxxxv and green washing can change that.
if done properly hydrogen and other moves can work - the masses will force change ( at many levels )
@qldfrog I hear what you say but AFAIC we will need steel well into the future.
True but i do not expect BHP to handle that they will be bought or split untill only a Singapore trading board remains.@qldfrog I hear what you say but AFAIC we will need steel well into the future.
The acquisition of (WDS) that's another matter as the value of those shares has been converted to (FMG) for the reason @divs4ever stated.
Skate.
we have this crazy idea of outsourcing stuff we can do ourselves
actually the 'renewable ' title probably goes to NZ where the government half-owns most of the players , and they already have wind , hydro and geothermal assets , ( i would assume some solar as well )True but i do not expect BHP to handle that they will be bought or split untill only a Singapore trading board remains.
FMG..let them split the green h2 and buy iron side or just go for a pure iron second tier.
We are the country i think with the most new renewable: solar/wind per head.. we can not even provide power to the grid this week.
Mass H2 is doable but we would be 100% dependent on China solar panels, think Russia and the cost..my god..
So yes gov subsidies etc but once Australia is broke.. let's talk about H2 in 1y.the good think with FMG..or Rio is that this green side is so far only talk.
So i have no issue with fmg/rio investment now.
I went in earlier but got out on trailing SL for both.will do it again
we CAN ( and have done , it ourselves )We cannot do it ourselves. We will never be able to do it ourselves.
We cannot match price with any of our neighbours to MAKE ANYTHING.
Potash has taken so long partly because it’s a huge project, and also partly because the potash market was in over supply for a period of time, so they weren’t in a rush to bring it into production.was not aware they have been at potash that far back , that doesn't improve my optimism at all , and was bemused when the Olympic Dam expansion was put on hold and pushed forwards on South American copper
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