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BHP - BHP Group

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coolcup said:
Hi CanOz

I am a bit dense - would you mind explaining what you are signalling here? I assume you are signalling the trend is now positive and might break out to the upside?

Thanks!!
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Its actually a bearish pattern, and the support is the line, so bearish below. These patterns don't always work, but the stats are there for you to check out...

CanOz
 
CanOz said:
Its actually a bearish pattern, and the support is the line, so bearish below. These patterns don't always work, but the stats are there for you to check out...

CanOz
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*slaps forehead*

I didn't quite notice the head and shoulders there staring me in the face - I was a bit more focused on the gradually rising support line. I think it has to pull back below the start of the first shoulder before the formation is complete no?
 

Seldom see them perfect and to be honest I've not traded them very often, they're a little rare. This pattern only shows on the ASX and not the ADR.

CanOz
 
CanOz said:
Here's one for bears and pattern fans.....

Curious to see is if works out or not.

I think i might make a wager on it:D

CanOz
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H&S short triggered. I didn't get on it as IB refused my order yesterday saying that "the exchange is closed"...nice:banghead:

Maybe on the retest...

CanOz
 

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Well today presents the less aggressive entry for the BHP H&S pattern. Target has been updated as well.

Lets see how it plays out.

I'm not holding this.

CanOz
 

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BHP is dropping nicely...
 

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CanOz said:
BHP is dropping nicely...
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If the overseas market holds up tonight, BHP should give you a good retest of that recent break. Chance to re-capture the lost opportunity if you expect weakness to persist.
 
skc said:
If the overseas market holds up tonight, BHP should give you a good retest of that recent break. Chance to re-capture the lost opportunity if you expect weakness to persist.
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Yeah, the DAX has built a value area higher in the face of the constitutional court hearings...

You think we'll get a pop up before another leg down in the US? Or is this correction over?
 
CanOz said:
Yeah, the DAX has built a value area higher in the face of the constitutional court hearings...

You think we'll get a pop up before another leg down in the US? Or is this correction over?
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The pop comment was only in relation to BHP. It was only 2% from the recent break of support and with SPI futures point up 40 points at the time of my post, it was quite conceivable for BHP to re-touch that before falling off.

And my money is on falling off because of what the chart for RIO looks like... it's an imminent breakdown to new 12 month low.

As to the overall market - don't really have a strong view either way - it's all about the $AUD and my power to predict FX behaviour is probably zero (if not negative).
 

Perhaps a short covering rally could propel BHP to the re test area again...
 
CanOz said:
Perhaps a short covering rally could propel BHP to the re test area again...
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There's not much shorts on BHP. Only 0.4% of shares outstanding per ASIC.

It might still retest over the next few sessions but it won't be short covering.
 
skc said:
There's not much shorts on BHP. Only 0.4% of shares outstanding per ASIC.

It might still retest over the next few sessions but it won't be short covering.
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Fair enough, that big volume spike this morning must be real buyers then...
 
Looks like a long term descending triangle on both RIO and BHP. Looking to avoid them both until they can break out of this formation. Had a good go at it, but failed recently. Also surprised at just how correlated the two share prices are despite having very different exposures to iron ore. I was expecting BHP to have outperformed much more reflecting its higher weighting to energy.

 
BHP Billiton - Maintain NEUTRAL

● The result was messy, but with NPAT of $11.8 bn a miss at the bottom line vs CS ($12.8 bn) and consensus ($12.6 bn). BHP noted that $700 mn of one-off items were taken above the line and that the tax rate was unusually high at 38% on MRRT and FX movements (each pp is ~$200 mn NPAT).

● Cost savings of $2.7 bn failed to impress as it was driven by exploration/evaluation and normalisation of production at Escondida and Aus coal. The full year dividend of $1.16/sh (up 4%) and capex of $21.7 bn were both in line.

● BHP is guiding to an 8% copper equivalent growth rate of over the next two years. This is down from the 10% BHP previously guided to and is primarily due to a lower petroleum production outlook (BP operated assets in the GoM).

● Despite plenty of new detail on production forecasts, cost cutting and capex there does not seem to be much that would change traders view. Traders will return with a fuller note once trader have had a chance to digest the new information better and have reviewed traders forecasts.
 
Quarterly Results:
  • BHP Billiton maintained strong momentum in the September 2013 quarter as production increased by 11% from the prior corresponding period.
  • BHP Billiton has upgraded its iron ore production guidance for the fiscal year from 207 to 212 million tonnes after beating forecasts during the September quarter.
  • The world's largest miner produced 54 million tonnes of iron ore out of its Western Australian Pilbara operations during the three months to the end of September.
  • Total petroleum production for the September quarter was a record 62.7 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Investors responded strongly to the news, pushing BHP shares ahead 85 ¢ or 2.5 per cent to close at $37.05 yesterday.

Has today been upgraded to a moderate buy, with analysts expecting a break of $40 and a high if $43 sometime within the next 6-12 months. So far up 64c or 1.7% to $37.69 today.

 
Did my first dive into BHP in the last week.

It pretty much replaced MQG as a long-term hold in my portfolio.
 
I'm a bit surprised nobody has commented about the demerger. I haven't read much of what BHP has had to say about the demerger (though I did skim the announcement yesterday) but I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the idea that BHP is spinning out second tier assets into a new vehicle and then expecting the market to support the venture. I suppose that a lot of fund managers will support it because of their mandates but if I held BHP shares (I currently don't) why would I want to hold shares in the new company if BHP doesn't want to hold the assets internally?
 

Sounds stupid to me, be like JBH spinning off their worst performing 200 stores and keeping the best 100 as core assets. :dunno: a mining company divesting its self of most of its mines.
 
So_Cynical said:
Sounds stupid to me, be like JBH spinning off their worst performing 200 stores and keeping the best 100 as core assets. :dunno: a mining company divesting its self of most of its mines.
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It's more like a retailer like Woolworths divesting Dicksmiths.

It's not a mining companies job to colour in every square on the periodic table, I think Iron ore, Copper, Coal (energy and metallurgical) and petroleum (with potash potentially) Is enough diversification for them.

And their assets in those commodities are huge, they will be mining those deposits for over 100years, I have had a look at the announcements and it seems like a good idea to me.

It should allow the Bhp management to focus on developing and extracting value from the very large long life assets, while the other smaller assets can have their own management who can focus on developing and improving them.

Also, Remember BHP spinning off their steel mills, Spinning off some of their aluminium assets is a similar thing.

a mining company divesting its self of most of its mines. :confused
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It's not even close to "most of it's mines"
 
McCoy Pauley said:
why would I want to hold shares in the new company if BHP doesn't want to hold the assets internally?
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There is still some good assets in there, I'll probably hold any Newco shares I get issued. The assets are cashflow positive, and under a focused management could probably be improved, Also Newco while not being a MEGA miner like BHP, it will still be a decent sized mining operation itself, and there are lots of opportunities for a company of its size to explore that are too big for the juniors, but to small for the megas.

So I see it as a Bag of producing assets, plus some development opportunities, with the abilitiy to expand into some new areas.
 
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