Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

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TheUnknown said:
LOL @ BHP and LOL @ BHP investors.

Enjoy $20 bucks.

Chasing pathetic dividends while capital is raped...sounds good.
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This is trolling, no decent discussion can come from it.

TheUnknown said:
The facts are china don't need it because it has slowed down, aus economy has slowed down despite what the BS figures are published, this was my reason and is still my reason why i think BHP will tumble even more.

Mining stocks are a gamble at the highest level once prices tumble they seem to take a very long time to recover if they do recover.

Look at RIO the same thing will happen with BHP $15-$20 bucks at tops.

Edit - I remember many guru's many experts and general share holders saying '' iron or will never drop below $80 are you crazy! '' BHP has investments in OIL.......and Iorn Or....
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This is not trolling, because your actually bringing up a few points which could have started a discussion.

The bad thing about trolling is not only does it not assist in starting a rational dialogue where you can share your views, it also denies you the possibility of learning something yourself.

who knows if you had not been such an a$$ from the start, maybe you might have learned something.
 
Value Collector said:
This is trolling, no decent discussion can come from it.



This is not trolling, because your actually bringing up a few points which could have started a discussion.

The bad thing about trolling is not only does it not assist in starting a rational dialogue where you can share your views, it also denies you the possibility of learning something yourself.

who knows if you had not been such an a$$ from the start, maybe you might have learned something.
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Yes, teach me something about this blue chip when i exit the short position @ $20.:) I will wait until that time.

Merry Christmas & Happy and prosperous new year!
 
TheUnknown said:
Yes, teach me something about this blue chip when i exit the short position @ $20.:) I will wait until that time.

Merry Christmas & Happy and prosperous new year!
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Ok, hold your shot positions until they are below $20 and we will see who's capital is destroyed longterm.
 
Value Collector said:
Ok, hold your shot positions until they are below $20 and we will see who's capital is destroyed longterm.
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Long term? It's back below what it was 5+ years ago.....please tell me what benefit it was holding it for 5 years apart from dividends which are pathetic and if you compare what inflation is running at and take away all other holding costs/taxes... please tell me how much money one would have made if they held from 09 until now?

'before' i get labelled a troll again i will show you something about your long term.

11/01/2010 BHP SHARES - $43.65

16/12/2014 BHP SHARES - $27.42

If someone invested $100k back in 2010 you would have $70k now.

In 5 years you have collected dividends.

But in 5 years your capital has grown 0%, in fact you have lost 30k of your capital.........''but'' ''but'' dividends?????? yeah.......what about inflation? what about holding costs.

if you plan to hold it for 20 years maybe you will get your money back and more.

BUT

most are here for a good time not a long time waiting for a recovery.
 
I'm with the guy in the shorts.

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BHP 3.gif
 
I used $4k of my capital on this short position since $31. If i fail i fail and lose less than someone who invested in this junk since 2010. If i do hit my target of $20 well.... i will be cashing in for a nice xmas gift and still be ahead if i purchased in 2010.

Hang on..........I'm a troll right............?

It's all about ROI and in what time frame.......in 30 years BHP could be $500 or $5.

In saying all of this.................................

* China has slowed down big time ( all financial releases are fake and fabricated )
* China is not going to buy iron or for $100+ a ton
* Oil has collapsed and will probably collapse down to $45.00 ( BHP will take a hit )

The smart ones would have exited this position sooner rather than later.
 
TheUnknown said:
I used $4k of my capital on this short position since $31. If i fail i fail and lose less than someone who invested in this junk since 2010. If i do hit my target of $20 well.... i will be cashing in for a nice xmas gift and still be ahead if i purchased in 2010.

Hang on..........I'm a troll right............?

It's all about ROI and in what time frame.......in 30 years BHP could be $500 or $5.

In saying all of this.................................

* China has slowed down big time ( all financial releases are fake and fabricated )
* China is not going to buy iron or for $100+ a ton
* Oil has collapsed and will probably collapse down to $45.00 ( BHP will take a hit )

The smart ones would have exited this position sooner rather than later.
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It is all a gamble, I know someone who bought 100,000 at $4, also bought 400,000 TLS at $3.50. Probably going to blow his feet off, but he is 80 now.lol
 
TheUnknown said:
I used $4k of my capital on this short position since $31. If i fail i fail and lose less than someone who invested in this junk since 2010. If i do hit my target of $20 well.... i will be cashing in for a nice xmas gift and still be ahead if i purchased in 2010.

Hang on..........I'm a troll right............?

It's all about ROI and in what time frame.......in 30 years BHP could be $500 or $5.

In saying all of this.................................

* China has slowed down big time ( all financial releases are fake and fabricated )
* China is not going to buy iron or for $100+ a ton
* Oil has collapsed and will probably collapse down to $45.00 ( BHP will take a hit )

The smart ones would have exited this position sooner rather than later.
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Well you certainly don't lack ego or confidence. Maturity suspect however. Aka unconsciously incompetent.

Posts of the kind you make add nothing. Also very boring.
 
sptrawler said:
It is all a gamble, I know someone who bought 100,000 at $4, also bought 400,000 TLS at $3.50. Probably going to blow his feet off, but he is 80 now.lol
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I agree with you 100% it is all a gamble. I rather gamble in a shorter time frame because no one knows what will happen in the future no one knows 100% what will happen in the shorter time frame either but chances are greater in a short time frame, when i say short time frame it does not mean 1-2 days it can be up to 6 months.

Moral of the story and my forecast on BHP is bearish and it's a dud.
 
Muschu said:
Well you certainly don't lack ego or confidence. Maturity suspect however. Aka unconsciously incompetent.

Posts of the kind you make add nothing. Also very boring.
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Yes it's boring, so why are you reading it and bothering to reply to it?

Sorry if you hold BHP, it might work out for you in the distant future.


PS - Trend is your friend
 
Muschu said:
Posts of the kind you make add nothing. Also very boring.
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Agreed. Any further posts that are designed to wind others up, or that are ramping or downramping in nature with no analysis or reasoning to support them will not be tolerated.

I'm all for both bearish and bullish perspectives. People are entitled to present either as long as they explain why, but mindless ramping or downramping serves no purpose and isn't welcome here.
 
TheUnknown said:
Yes it's boring, so why are you reading it and bothering to reply to it?

Sorry if you hold BHP, it might work out for you in the distant future.


PS - Trend is your friend
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Joe I completely agree with your last post.

May I finish with this please?

Mr Unknown, and briefly:

No I do not hold BHP. I did some years back but the volatility made me decide to sell.

Next: I thought you stated several posts back that you would not contribute to this thread anymore.

Finally: Your posts actually devalue ASF.

Thanks Joe. You may decide to go further with this but that is your call and your record, in my experience, has
been very considered and respected.
 
TheUnknown said:
Long term? It's back below what it was 5+ years ago.
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Who's talking about 5 years ago?

you have made a specific claim, about BHP hitting $20.

Lets see you hold that short until it hits $20.

Please hold any cocky replies until your short position hits that target.
 
Value Collector said:
Who's talking about 5 years ago?

you have made a specific claim, about BHP hitting $20.

Lets see you hold that short until it hits $20.

Please hold any cocky replies until your short position hits that target.
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If BHP hit $20 I for one will be adding.
Resources are required to build first world infrastructure.

Currently all the third world populace can afford, is mobile phones and t.v's, this unfortunately shows them what they are missing out on.

It is a massive motivator, the demand will ebb and flow, however the underlying demand and cost of non renewable's will increase, until we can replace them.:2twocents
 
sptrawler said:
If BHP hit $20 I for one will be adding.
Resources are required to build first world infrastructure.

Currently all the third world populace can afford, is mobile phones and t.v's, this unfortunately shows them what they are missing out on.

It is a massive motivator, the demand will ebb and flow, however the underlying demand and cost of non renewable's will increase, until we can replace them.:2twocents
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me too, I would be happy to sell unknown some $20 put options if wanted.
 
In the 2014 financial year, BHP had 85 billion USD net assets. Given the current exchange rate, that's a book value of about $19.5 a share.

It certainly looks more attractive at $30 than at $39 last year, but there is still a large amount of uncertainty in the commodity prices.
 
I think a growing concern for long term investors is whether resource companies can transition successfully as the economy adopts a more sustainable model in terms of growth and energy sources.
 
Looks like big miners are the most hated stocks on ASX. With Iron Ore trading around 70 even government reviewed it's budget balancing until 2018 in anticipation for ore to decline further, or staying where it is for prolonged period of time. It could, of course, but I'll try to give a different shot here from technical perspective.

In anticipation of Triangle (chart here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1335&p=840445&viewfull=1#post840445 ), the waves can be counted as complete for Intermediate wave (C).

It is also important that BHP is trading now at the very important long term resistance trendline which is somewhere at ~28. (charts here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=851959&viewfull=1#post851959 )
So over 40 years of trend, and will it hold is sending another message, that probably it will (trend is your friend, right?).

BHP W.jpg




I also added iron ore charts with most likely counts for this situation, and no matter how you count there seems that one wave is still missing, just at different degree, declining to 60(in first) or lower in second chart scenario. I expect that BHP will hold around 27-28 while ore finds a bottom.


iron ore.jpg

The consensus sentiment towards miners and commodities is pessimistic, to say at least, little people see the situation will improve in the near term.
One analyst from IG markets told today ""There is a lot of running for the exit in a market where there is no slowing down in the bear market of oil and iron ore". Followed by todays further fall in oil, another from Goldman Sachs added that : "he expects a “far lower” new normal for prices" and Barclays Plc said oil has “further downside risk.”
That's just a couple examples how declining market affects what people say and think, but none of them sees any green light nor short term, neither medium term, and most of them are pessimistic about long term also. This is another signal that can be added as a sentiment extreme to those two above.

As far as I can see, there are plenty of reasons to short BHP these days, but they are quite different from those that where 3,5 years ago when Iron Ore was above $150 and BHP above $45, and when shorting miners seemed like crazy idea at the time. So market did it's job, the question how well will be answered in a first half of the year 2015.
 
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