BHP - BHP Group

[Realist]

Consider this completely anecdotal and for entertainment value only:

I have been doing a survey amongst people I knoe who invest in shares:

1/ Do you own BHP? ....usually yes

2/ Do you think it is going up in the short term? ... usually yes, with added superlatives etc, targets of $40 -$50 - %60 bythe end of next year.

3/ Do you intend to buy more over the next year? ... probably not, already got too much, ... I'm upgrading my house etc.

[/end of survey]

Those aquainted with contrarian theory will draw some conclusions from that which are likely to be the opposite to the rest.



Cheers

Ahh this is one of your best posts Wayne.

Hahahaa, its funny cause it is true!!

I'm not willing to pump too much more money into them for one main reason, their dividend policy stinks, and BHP is now so large it can't possibly double quickly, it'd be like turning the Queen Mary around, the bigger they are the slower they are. But they are nice solid investments cause the chances of them plummeting are small as well (bigger slower again).

(I do own more BHP than any other ASX stock, and have RIO)

 

[Sean K]

Consider this completely anecdotal and for entertainment value only:

I have been doing a survey amongst people I knoe who invest in shares:

1/ Do you own BHP? ....usually yes

2/ Do you think it is going up in the short term? ... usually yes, with added superlatives etc, targets of $40 -$50 - %60 bythe end of next year.

3/ Do you intend to buy more over the next year? ... probably not, already got too much, ... I'm upgrading my house etc.

[/end of survey]

Those aquainted with contrarian theory will draw some conclusions from that which are likely to be the opposite to the rest.



Cheers

He he, I'm sure the poll was considered sufficient for a thesis sample Wayneo. Thanks for the in depth analysis of market perceptions and positions towards BHP.

You're probably right though!

So, I'll sell all mine tomorrow.

 

[Jadefox]

The following is a list of headlines concerning copper prices. I kept a list earlier in the year (for about one month) to demonstrate how difficult it would be to make trading decisions based on headlines alone - and to convince myself that time reading news headlines would usually be better spent on TA.


Comex Copper Review: Bounces On Short Covering - FutureSource.com, Jun 14, 2006 14:06

Copper Rebounds on Speculation Drop Was Exaggerated - Bloomberg,

Copper Drops in London as Investors Sell Metal on Interest Rate Concerns - Bloomberg

Copper edges up but still wary of slowing economy - Reuters,

Comex Copper Review: Higher On Short Covering Boost -FutureSource

Copper Leads Metal Price Gains in London on Concern Over Supply Disruption - Bloomberg, Jun 22, 2006 06:39

Copper continues higher as inventories fall - Reuters

Copper drifts; growth worries offset demand signals - Mining Weekly

Global copper market in surplus by 15,000 mt in March: ICSG - Metals Place,


Comex Copper Review: Rises On Technicals, Fed Expectations - FutureSource.com, Jun 29, 2006 17:45


Copper Prices Rise as Investors Bet Fed Will Pause Rate Rises - Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2006 07:24


Copper climbs on strong fundamentals, eyes funds - Mining Weekly,
Bottom of Form 1


Copper '06 in 190,000-ton deficit, not surplus - BME

 

[wayneL]

He he, I'm sure the poll was considered sufficient for a thesis sample Wayneo. Thanks for the in depth analysis of market perceptions and positions towards BHP.

You're probably right though!

So, I'll sell all mine tomorrow.

Here's a quintessentially BHPesque conversation I had with my Father-in-Law who has some BHP

*****************

Me: I think BHP has topped for now.

Outlaw: What do you mean?

Me: Looks like a blow off top in May and we are now below the 200DMA

Outlaw: What are you talking about?

Me: Well it's certainly off its highs

Outlaw: Are you mad? It's at all time highs and going higher.

Me: It is? Not by my chart it ain't. Where did you get this info from?

Outlaw: It was on TV last night. !...? (Some BOZO maket commentator with a s##tload of BHP) was talking about it.

Me: So you haven't checked the price for yourself?

Outlaw: No.

Me: It topped at about $50 in May and it's now less than $40... nearly 30% down! <edit = NYSE prices>

Outlaw: Are you sure?

Me: Yep, go check the paper.

Outlaw: (Silence)

Me: Whadaya reckon?

Outlaw: ...................subject changed

****************

You wouldn't believe the number of conversations I've had in the last 2-3 months just like this one, it's like groundhog day LOLOL!

 

[Sean K]

Here's a quintessentially BHPesque conversation I had with my Father-in-Law who has some BHP

*****************

Me: I think BHP has topped for now.

Outlaw: What do you mean?

Me: Looks like a blow off top in May and we are now below the 200DMA

Outlaw: What are you talking about?

Me: Well it's certainly off its highs

Outlaw: Are you mad? It's at all time highs and going higher.

Me: It is? Not by my chart it ain't. Where did you get this info from?

Outlaw: It was on TV last night. !...? (Some BOZO maket commentator with a s##tload of BHP) was talking about it.

Me: So you haven't checked the price for yourself?

Outlaw: No.

Me: It topped at about $50 in May and it's now less than $40... nearly 30% down!

Outlaw: Are you sure?

Me: Yep, go check the paper.

Outlaw: (Silence)

Me: Whadaya reckon?

Outlaw: ...................subject changed

****************

You wouldn't believe the number of conversations I've had in the last 2-3 months just like this one, it's like groundhog day LOLOL!

Did you say you were short BHP Wayne?

Repeat the conversation inverse and you are the outlaw just supporting your position. (are you sure BHP went to $50 in May? )

Yes, yes, maybe most people think BHP is still a good long term stock and you are a contrarian of sorts, and think that the US is about to bust and therefore the supercycle is a myth, blah, blah, blah.

Time will tell.

I won't lose my shirt on BHP though. Just a sleave perhaps.

But uranium and gold will make up for it.

 

[wayneL]

Did you say you were short BHP Wayne?

No position in BHP

Repeat the conversation inverse and you are the outlaw just supporting your position. (are you sure BHP went to $50 in May? )

Those were NYSE prices.. sorry for the confusion

Yes, yes, maybe most people think BHP is still a good long term stock and you are a contrarian of sorts, and think that the US is about to bust and therefore the supercycle is a myth, blah, blah, blah.

Time will tell.

I won't lose my shirt on BHP though. Just a sleave perhaps.

But uranium and gold will make up for it.

Why do I post all this bearish ####?

Two reasons:

1/ To observe reactions

2/ People have lost all fear of the markets, and fear is healthy. I hope to precipitate at least a bit of thought about risk.

A couple of incidents that support my activism in this.

1/ There was an excellent article in the West Austarlian about this guy; he had 30k in savings and wanted to spend 100k remodelling his house. So he borrowed 70k. What has this got to do with BHP? Well he took the 100k and opened a CFD a/c and geared himself to the freakin' moon on BHP... and lost most of the 100K (apologies if slightly vague, I had to read it very quickly)

2/ A mate of mine MEWed 100k odd then margined himself up to 400k to plonk into the ASX, primarily on resource stocks... this in spite of my cautions.

To cut a short story even shorter, he recieved a margin call and won't tell me how much he lost.... just mumbles "I should have listened to you". But I have a fair idea that he now has an extra 100k of debt on his mortgage and nothing to show for it.

This isn't to make me look like a guru. I just think people should have a "healthy" fear of the markets and what they can do.... heck, this correction is childs play compared to what "can" happen.

....and yes I think the US economy is going in the tank.

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

(are you sure BHP went to $50 in May? )

For interest sake the BHP chart as quoted on the NYSE\/

Trading near the close @ 37.22

 

[2020hindsight]

This isn't to make me look like a guru. I just think people should have a "healthy" fear of the markets and what they can do.... heck, this correction is childs play compared to what "can" happen. ....and yes I think the US economy is going in the tank.Cheers

Wayne my brother tells me he wouldnt go near the stock market with a 40 foot pole at the moment - mind you he bet a few $K on swannies to win .
but he's not as brave as I am!! lol
when you say "going in the tank" , i think that means bad news right ? just that my optimistic side is trying to interpret that as a tank of money maybe - like Uncke Scroooge used to swim in

 

[Realist]

my brother tells me he wouldnt go near the stock market with a 40 foot pole at the moment

Amateurs think that once the stock market has gone up quite a bit it is only logical that it will come down.

The reality is nobody knows, and the stockmarket may continue to rise for quite a few more years.

So what happens? Well people think ohh I'll stay out and be safe, but then the market rises, and rises, and rises, and they think ohh damn I was wrong I better get in, and whammo it crashes.

Haha.

Amateurs (infact everyone) should buy stocks at regular intervals and not ever try and predict crashes for this very reason..

No-one can predict crashes or highs, trying to just makes you look silly.

 

[Sean K]

Wayne, I am being cautious atm, but I'm afraid (I can't believe I'm saying this) I agree with Realist to some extent to. The old chestnut 'it's time in the market, not timing the market' is a valid long term investment approach. Which is where Realist is coming from and 75% of my portfolio is aimed at too. The other 25% is trading which I have clear exists for. I can't ever see myself to be totally out. Maybe I'll lose my shirt.....

 

[Sean K]

Lost a sleave.

Good buying opportunity.....

 

[Ken]

4 days gains work lost in the opening price

that suxs!

at least S8 limited are looking after me (touch wood)

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Lost a sleave.

Good buying opportunity.....

Rode bare back from work round the ring road just to get last 35 mins of trading ....and Kennas I was close to buying a 1000 shares today $24.72....pulled the pin as I felt I was too hasty ,or should I say unfocused at 30 degrees. Have the feeling theres plenty of slippin'n'sliding going on soon. :bowdown:

 

[2020hindsight]

I can't ever see myself to be totally out. Maybe I'll lose my shirt.....

Im such a novice in this company - but if you're interested in my biggest weakness, it's that I CAN't leave the bludy market alone - I MUST have all my bludy money in there, (the option of having no horse at all is a nono to my subconscious) and then an opportunity comes along, eg CBH this Friday - which was ALWAYS gonna happen - and BLIND BLUDY FREDDY could have predicted it - and guess what - I dont have any spare cash .. sheesh I could kick myself.
I kid myself that I got out of ABC when it peaked - but the trouble is I bought XYZ instead lol which dropped 20% ...hot diggity bludy dog ! Heck I got out of BHP when it was around $30 - big deal - I got into something else which has fallen more than BHP has lol. - Sorry Ill shuddup now. :hammer:
moral :- only invest x% of your bank. (where x in my humble and uneducated opinion varies 50 to 75%)

 

[2020hindsight]

Amateurs think that once the stock market has gone up quite a bit it is only logical that it will come down. The reality is nobody knows, and the stockmarket may continue to rise for quite a few more years.

being realistic mate the chances of a wave continuing to rise gets less the higher the wave gets surely - i mean , If we were in a casino - and if Id won $4000 at the craps table, then Id say - just keep bettin.!! .. the chance of a win on the next roll of the dice are the same as when I walked in ...

BUT in the stock market - my brother ( bless him) would say - sheesh I remember the last time I went in when it was near top, and I had to watch like a tortured prisoner as it tumbled down, those famous "corrections" that everyone seems to know about (usually in hindsight lol) ... ahh shin bone, I'm talking to the converted / experienced / worldly wise , ... I'll shuddup again. :horse:

 

[BSD]

No position in BHP

This isn't to make me look like a guru. I just think people should have a "healthy" fear of the markets and what they can do.... heck, this correction is childs play compared to what "can" happen.

....and yes I think the US economy is going in the tank.

Cheers

Heck Wayne, I dont understand/agree with half of what these TA guys talk about - but can you stop only posting when Hills gap down? Where were you last week !

Copper is looking stunning tonight in London up 10c/lb (dont ask me why!!!) and Hills could rally strong tomorrow but I get the feeling I should have spruiked more in last week's rally? (For fun's sake)

I LOVE the post from JADEFOX -re Headlines - but fail to see it as an endorsement of charts and only a boost for having an investment timeframe of longer than five minutes and a good feel for longer term fundamentals. Following the three month copper (or any other) chart would give you nothing but a complex and a number of margin calls in my view.

There is certainly no trend.

The Chinamen have a weeks holiday and everyone forgets there aint a lot of copper/oil/nickel/zinc to be found at low prices

Maybe we need another thread - what is the difference between oil and copper?

I agree with your feelings re: big events ie (what can (??) happen) but I dont feel this type of scenario should guide 90% of a man's investing decisions.

The BHP shorts have had a breather but (in my relatively consistent view) will be found-out by that horrible reality - physical demand

If you want to talk about black swans - why must it be on the BHP forum?

Oh and unless your (our mine) relatives hold 5m shares , who cares about their views, particularly if they are bananas?

How much does the retail punter move Hills?

Not much

 

[wayneL]

Heck Wayne, I dont understand/agree with half of what these TA guys talk about - but can you stop only posting when Hills gap down? Where were you last week !

LOL! Waiting for the gap down of course!

Copper is looking stunning tonight in London up 10c/lb (dont ask me why!!!) and Hills could rally strong tomorrow but I get the feeling I should have spruiked more in last week's rally? (For fun's sake)

Chop.... see below

I LOVE the post from JADEFOX -re Headlines - but fail to see it as an endorsement of charts and only a boost for having an investment timeframe of longer than five minutes and a good feel for longer term fundamentals. Following the three month copper (or any other) chart would give you nothing but a complex and a number of margin calls in my view.

There is certainly no trend.

BSD,

This view from you fundies does get rather tiresome. The misinformed assumption that trading in a range necessitates losses and margin calls is arrogant in the extreme. There is NO Way a professional trader would EVER recieve a margin call, unless they have a secret desire to blow up their account. (Common in hedge funds apparently )

Why on earth would a techie be subject to margin calls, yet fundies miraculously immune? Give me a break!!

Charts DO NOT tell us many things. But charts do not lie. We cannot argue with them successfully. Some try but you just can't long term.

For instance, as you point out, there is no trend currently. This is highly visible via a chart. Trend traders won't be anywhere near this contract. As for longer term fundamentals, there will be fundamental opinions on both sides of the fence. It would be dangerous to assume all fundies are long. I would bet my @55 that there are a bunch of fundies who are short.

While the losing fundamental opinion drops a substantial bundle, the techie just jumps the fence.

When will you people realise that both approaches have merit?

The Chinamen have a weeks holiday and everyone forgets there aint a lot of copper/oil/nickel/zinc to be found at low prices

Maybe we need another thread - what is the difference between oil and copper?

Good idea!

I agree with your feelings re: big events ie (what can (??) happen) but I dont feel this type of scenario should guide 90% of a man's investing decisions.

The BHP shorts have had a breather but (in my relatively consistent view) will be found-out by that horrible reality - physical demand

If you want to talk about black swans - why must it be on the BHP forum?

Oh and unless your (our mine) relatives hold 5m shares , who cares about their views, particularly if they are bananas?

How much does the retail punter move Hills?

Not much

Your view may turn out to be correct. It might not.

But does the retail punter move Hills... ultimately, yes.

 

[wayneL]

Copper is looking stunning tonight in London up 10c/lb (dont ask me why!!!) and Hills could rally strong tomorrow but I get the feeling I should have spruiked more in last week's rally? (For fun's sake)

HGZ06 (Cu) finished -7.70 c/lb.

BHP(NYSE) @36.20 -1.08 40 mins prior to close.

A buy or a sell?

 

[BSD]

Wayne - I will reply in some more detail later.

I dont disagree with much of what you say and I think we have some crossed wires in places.

I think I need to learn to make better use of emoticons!

Funnily enough, last night I think I hit the reply button as copper 'gapped up' looking exceptionally bullish on the chart.

I wake to find it 15c lower



Just popped my emoticon cherry!

 

[Realist]

being realistic mate the chances of a wave continuing to rise gets less the higher the wave gets surely - i mean , If we were in a casino - and if Id won $4000 at the craps table, then Id say - just keep bettin.!! .. the chance of a win on the next roll of the dice are the same as when I walked in ...

So if the stockmarket goes up you'd pull all your money out and wait for it to fall?

Obviously it is wise to pull your money if it is going to go down. But my point is no one knows when that time is, and trying to time it is alot harder than people think.

If it keeps going up which it usually does then you lose out.

And if it goes down you may lose as well. For instance if the market goes up 20% and you sell then you pay 2% in brokerage and your tax is 9% - you're down 11%, and when you wanna buy in that is another 2%, missed dividends could be 3% - the market would need to fall 16% for you to break even.

When has the market fallen 16% in a few months before? Not often!!