Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

BHP - BHP Group

Jump to new
wayneL said:
Thats just Jim ramping LOL

Metals? In the face of the imminent depression? Perhaps if there is hyper inflation. (a strong possibility)

But as a case for a lasting bull, the video was a tad short of substance.

Nobody owns commodities? LOL It doesn't work that way. Commodities are NOT and investment per se'... and they are owned via the stockmarket.

Cheers
Click to expand...

Hey Jim is a great source of long term perspective - I didnt expect the vid to stand alone.

The ownership of commodities point comes back to the regular bear comment:

"oh, the hedge funds/etf/specialist funds have ramped physicals - its a bubble"

It isnt true. We are where we are due to physical demand fro consumers. The speculators are net short.

The argument for oil is the same for metals.

Declining quality and quantum of supply matched with ever rising demand from the industrialisation of China leading to higher and higher prices.

It is amazing that people still believe a wave of supply is coming in metals like copper and nickel.


As for your depression call - at least I understand your thoughts and can disagree.

I wouldnt own BHP either if I thought a depression was coming. I wouldnt own anything but a bit of gold!

The global recession story is incredibly strong, but for lack of real evidence. Let alone a depression.
 
michael_selway said:
Jims Flaw is that he always says historically, in real terms, we are below all time highs

But the thing is History doesnt necessarily repeat itself, it doesnt have to

But I do believe there is 1 or 2 more yrs left 3 maybe, but crash will eb coming esp if prices goes higher

MS
Click to expand...

The whole bear argument is based on a historical fallacy.

"Prices must return to their old lows from the '90s. The supply is coming because it did last time. "

Nobody now believes oil will go back to $10bbl - why are base metals different?

Supply in copper is not coming for at least three-five years and it will come at a far greater marginal cost than that of the miners in the 90s.

What % of current (let alone future) copper supply could operate at $0.80c?


I don't believe these prices should be rocketting up in a straight line - but cannot buy the bear case in lieu of a global depression, which I certainly cannot see as imminent.
 
BSD said:
The whole bear argument is based on a historical fallacy.

"Prices must return to their old lows from the '90s. The supply is coming because it did last time. "

Nobody now believes oil will go back to $10bbl - why are base metals different?

Supply in copper is not coming for at least three-five years and it will come at a far greater marginal cost than that of the miners in the 90s.

What % of current (let alone future) copper supply could operate at $0.80c?


I don't believe these prices should be rocketting up in a straight line - but cannot buy the bear case in lieu of a global depression, which I certainly cannot see as imminent.
Click to expand...

yeah again it doesnt have to repeat

Can oil go back to $50bbl sustianably?
Can copper go back to $2.00/lb sustianably?

Yes, but it doesnt have to go back to 10bbl or 0.80/lb respectively, thats the whole point

I always have the veiw that once everything is built up (modernised), theres no need to build much anymore, so much smaller amounts of resources will be needed. But yet supply production keeps increasing? Then prices will fall fast and supply will also fall, putting it back in balance again

Imo need to keep an eye on the below, esp the "ins"

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

But short to medium term, yes its still bullish

thx

MS
 
BSD said:
The whole bear argument is based on a historical fallacy.

"Prices must return to their old lows from the '90s. The supply is coming because it did last time. "

Nobody now believes oil will go back to $10bbl - why are base metals different?

Supply in copper is not coming for at least three-five years and it will come at a far greater marginal cost than that of the miners in the 90s.

What % of current (let alone future) copper supply could operate at $0.80c?


I don't believe these prices should be rocketting up in a straight line - but cannot buy the bear case in lieu of a global depression, which I certainly cannot see as imminent.
Click to expand...
Emphasis mine. Prices not going up in a straight line means that at some point they go down. Question is when and how far?

I don't have a link but I read that ABARE is changing its forecasts rather quickly towards lower prices. :2twocents
 
KEN...NO! ........A verry good idea, unless there is a crash going on then hold till $22.....unless ur doing cfd's then wait till $24.15- $24.16....just keep an eye on it and bail at your own STOP.....Like I said $23 is the psychological buy time and I mean $23 not $23.95....if it hits that.......I held to =$29.99 and folded, from $18, and missed 32 but a win was enuf.....and took the falls from $29.99 on cfd's aswell and can honestly say i enjoyed the ride...especialy since I was trading in a cafe in thailand once a day after it hit .......buy more and more.....unless you believe in a bad october crash....not this year I think....best buying time....scaredy cats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Do your own thing............but don't be a gambler...unless you're lucky .... like me....LOL.....and put all your profits into cent shares....in the drawer..NMS&NWR&NEO..............I'm big the "N" companies,,,,especialy in november.......hehe!................all nnnnnnnnnnnnnn's
 
pacer said:
KEN...NO! ........A verry good idea, unless there is a crash going on then hold till $22.....unless ur doing cfd's then wait till $24.15- $24.16....just keep an eye on it and bail at your own STOP.....Like I said $23 is the psychological buy time and I mean $23 not $23.95....if it hits that.......I held to =$29.99 and folded, from $18, and missed 32 but a win was enuf.....and took the falls from $29.99 on cfd's aswell and can honestly say i enjoyed the ride...especialy since I was trading in a cafe in thailand once a day after it hit .......buy more and more.....unless you believe in a bad october crash....not this year I think....best buying time....scaredy cats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Do your on thing............but don't be a gambler...unless you're lucky .... like me....LOL
Click to expand...

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7257

UBS lowers iron ore forecast, cuts Rio/BHP earnings
Source: Dow Jones

UBS said the iron ore market could also be affected by China's move to boost its own production, which rose 47% last year.

As a result UBS is now forecasting a 5% drop in contract iron ore prices in 2007, compared with an earlier prediction of a 10% rise.

In 2008 UBS now expects prices to fall 15%, where previously it had forecast a 10% decrease.

In a client note UBS analysts said the growing materials production from China now had markets asking "could this be the factor that sinks global basic materials equity sentiment, itself already adjusting to a cyclical downdraft?".

As a result of the changes to price expectations, UBS has cut its earnings forecast for Rio Tinto Plc. (RTP) by 6% in calendar 2007 and 9% in 2008 and for BHP Billiton (BHP) by 3% in 2007 and 4% the following year.

Rio Tinto is the world's second largest iron ore producer and BHP the third. Together with Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO), the two Australian companies are key players in the annual iron ore contract negotiations with steel mills.

For the current Japanese fiscal year that ends next March, the miners won a higher than expected 19% increase after drawn-out talks with Chinese mills. A year earlier, the hike was 71.5%.

UBS said the spot price for iron ore remains strong for now and whether or not this strength is maintained will be interesting to watch in the run up to negotiations set to begin later in 2006.
Click to expand...

thx

MS
 
Good way to cut down on the chinese populace....and the refugees, and stock prices..........send 'em all out to find thier own stuff....90% of China unexploered.....minerals.....
 
i am definatley holding BHP,

there will be no selling involved at this stage.

i have applied for margin loan so when i feel the time is right i will be going in for another 600.

I have been looking at some other mining companies starting with N!

NAD (diamond producing company at 5 cents, and rising)
NIA ( Niagara mining) going to germany to sell there story to investors on 8th of OCtober so hopefully they buy it.

a lot of opinions on the company am not in a position to give a good forecast as i dont know the sums. I'm in it for the long term, dont have time to day trade.
 
PS....what I'm reading into this is the fact China has drilled the hell out of Itself, with the help of foreign companies....but is verry Quiet and will dictate margins from now on......To BHP and RIO.....but try to stop a full Global F....STUF-FUP.........SCARY HUH....The Speed you are travelling at determines the result!....Same as when you're in a CAR!!!!!....
The type of crash will determine the time you spend doing repairs!!!!!!
 
BSD said:
The global recession story is incredibly strong, but for lack of real evidence. Let alone a depression.
Click to expand...

"Is there any other point to which you wish to draw my attention?"
"Only to the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
"The dog did nothing in the night-time."
"That was the curious incident," remarked Sherlock Holmes.

-Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (Silver Blaze)

***
Cheers
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&refer=commodities&sid=aQs.ur_n1BIg


Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose to a two-week high on speculation that makers of metal wires and pipes, particularly in China, will increase purchases to avoid a supply shortfall this year.

Demand for copper will exceed mine output by 52,000 metric tons through 2006, after a deficit of 360,000 tons last year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast on Sept. 18. Stockpiles have plunged 86 percent in the past four years, leaving stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange at levels sufficient to meet demand for just three days.

``There is no doubt that consumers are adding support to this market,'' said Peter Hickson, a London-based strategist at UBS Ltd. who has worked more than three decades in the metals and mining industry, including the last 12 as a metals analyst.


``The Chinese have got themselves short of copper,'' he said. Copper's 14 percent decline from its record high came from selling by hedge funds, not actual users of the metal, he said.



The iron (and coal for that matter) downgrades are new and interesting. I thinks three banks moved down yesterday.

Most analysts had/have 'price rollover' or a +/- 10% in their numbers.

Not a bad result if you consider the doubling in two years will be effectively sustained.

Maybe we should consider what happens if Cu remains above $3 for three years?
 
BSD said:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&refer=commodities&sid=aQs.ur_n1BIg


Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose to a two-week high on speculation that makers of metal wires and pipes, particularly in China, will increase purchases to avoid a supply shortfall this year.

Demand for copper will exceed mine output by 52,000 metric tons through 2006, after a deficit of 360,000 tons last year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast on Sept. 18. Stockpiles have plunged 86 percent in the past four years, leaving stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange at levels sufficient to meet demand for just three days.

``There is no doubt that consumers are adding support to this market,'' said Peter Hickson, a London-based strategist at UBS Ltd. who has worked more than three decades in the metals and mining industry, including the last 12 as a metals analyst.


``The Chinese have got themselves short of copper,'' he said. Copper's 14 percent decline from its record high came from selling by hedge funds, not actual users of the metal, he said.



The iron (and coal for that matter) downgrades are new and interesting. I thinks three banks moved down yesterday.

Most analysts had/have 'price rollover' or a +/- 10% in their numbers.

Not a bad result if you consider the doubling in two years will be effectively sustained.

Maybe we should consider what happens if Cu remains above $3 for three years?
Click to expand...

Looking at the comments on Cu in that article, and looking at the dec Cu chart below, that article looks like spin to me.

fsspon


Bloomberg should never be believed...unless of course, they post something bearish LOL.

I wonder what that nugget of malachite sitting on Mrs night table is worth now? :cautious:
 
i get there feeling they are taking me to a happy place called boom TOWN.


time will tell.

i guess

i hope everyone who went short on BHP is massively out of pocket!
 
Well, I don't hope anyone loses money, but I do hope BHP recovers. I am long term BHP.

There is going to be significant resistance around $27.00 which happens to be around 200d ma also. It's a long way from recovery yet. Don't count your chickens gents.
 

Attachments

  • BHP.GIF
    BHP.GIF
    28.2 KB · Views: 137
Realist said:
I AM!! :p:

Rio as well....
Click to expand...

BHP & RIO likely to go up i suspect as DOW is on the up, by how much cant really say atm

BHP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 225.4 295.1 274.3 248.8
DPS 48.4 52.9 55.6 56.9

RIO - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 492.6 776.0 739.3 679.6
DPS 259.0 120.0 129.9 139.1

thx

MS
 
Consider this completely anecdotal and for entertainment value only:

I have been doing a survey amongst people I knoe who invest in shares:

1/ Do you own BHP? ....usually yes

2/ Do you think it is going up in the short term? ... usually yes, with added superlatives etc, targets of $40 -$50 - %60 bythe end of next year.

3/ Do you intend to buy more over the next year? ... probably not, already got too much, ... I'm upgrading my house etc.

[/end of survey]

Those aquainted with contrarian theory will draw some conclusions from that which are likely to be the opposite to the rest.

:2twocents

Cheers
 
Top