BDG - Bendigo Mining

Sean K · 10 November 2006

The last line of defence for this is $0.75, which it won't get to IMO due to the placement at $0.80. Resistance now on the way up between $1.00 and $1.20.

Fundamentals are there, although management needs to convince the market a bit better.

Way oversold this puppy. I'm waiting for the dust to settle before jumping on.

GRIZ · 10 November 2006

Hi All,
Have held BDG several times now, but keep getting burnt "reserve comment" & delay in 2nd mine opening now 2012/2013 -15%. "capital raising" -10%, may now be over sold? Dont know. There always talking about 660,000 ounces a year @ $250 us / ounce, but until 2012 50,000 ounces @ $400 + this year (only 3 or 4 months ago it was 170-190,000 ounces first year of production).
Have you looked at the chart all the way back to 1985 - listed at 25 cents. By Jan 87 was @ $7.50. Huge amount of hip pushed price up to $23.20 Sep 87, then back 50 cents by the end of 88. Last month they commision plant & poor there first gold, no upside from ann. How could it take 21 years?? Most of there asx ann. are negative, cost over runs, industrial disputes etc etc. Poor managment!
I dont post very often, but do read & respect your posts, I dont understand why the continued positive feeling about BDG. Is it just the fact its over sold, or 11 Mill ou. in the ground.
If some of you have time maybe you could explain why you / I would buy back into BDG. Ar'nt there good alt. What about OGD? 550,000 au. a year by 2008 @ $100.00 US / ounce. just as example.

Thanks, sorry about the rant. GRIZ.

Sean K · 10 November 2006

GRIZ said:
Hi All,
Have held BDG several times now, but keep getting burnt "reserve comment" & delay in 2nd mine opening now 2012/2013 -15%. "capital raising" -10%, may now be over sold? Dont know. There always talking about 660,000 ounces a year @ $250 us / ounce, but until 2012 50,000 ounces @ $400 + this year (only 3 or 4 months ago it was 170-190,000 ounces first year of production).
Have you looked at the chart all the way back to Jan 1987 - listed at $7.50. Huge amount of hip pushed price up to $23.20 Sep 87, then back 50 cents by the end of 88. Last month they commision plant & poor there first gold, no upside from ann. Most of there asx ann. are negative, cost over runs, industrial disputes etc etc.
I dont post very often, but do read & respect your posts, I dont understand why the continued positive feeling about BDG. Is it just the fact its over sold, or 11 Mill ou. in the ground.
If some of you have time maybe you could explain why you / I would buy back into BDG. Ar'nt there good alt. What about OGD? 550,000 au. a year by 2008 @ $100.00 US / ounce. just as exaple.

Thanks, sorry about the rant. GRIZ.

Griz, yeah I'm following OGD too. Watching closely.

I think the spt for BDG was the 11 m JORC and no hedging at a time when gold is expected to climb to $1000 +.

You are right about all the bad news. Frustrating.

I bought at $1.39 and sold around $1.00 to wait until it's clearer where it's headed.

Must say, I'm a gold bull, so perhaps that has clouded my mind.

The Mint Man · 15 November 2006

Pulled this from the Gold price thread, thanks to kennas

Finding Value In Australia's Gold Sector
FN Arena News - November 14 2006

By Chris Shaw

So assuming gold has higher to go, where should investors look for the best value in the sector or the best bang for their buck? Austock Securities has come to the rescue by providing a summary of the sector, allowing for a comparison of the various gold stocks the broker covers.

A review of the list shows the broker rates Newcrest (NCM), Sino Gold (SGX), Oceana (OGD), Resolute (RSG) and Perseverance (PSV) as Buys, while Austindo (ARX) is a Speculative Buy. Lihir (LHG), Bendigo (BDG) and Tanami (TAM) are rated as Hold.

In terms of valuations, the broker estimates Bendigo is trading at the largest discount to valuation at 68%, though given the company's recent issues and the resulting negative sentiment this is balanced by its Hold rating.

kennas you posted this so I'll direct this question towards you just to clear things up: When he says 'discount to valuation at 68%'. Does that mean they have a share price estimation of about $2.50?

For any of you that are interested you can view the whole post here, post 824: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=92313#post92313

cheers

Sean K · 15 November 2006

The Mint Man said:
Pulled this from the Gold price thread, thanks to kennas

kennas you posted this so I'll direct this question towards you just to clear things up: When he says 'discount to valuation at 68%'. Does that mean they have a share price estimation of about $2.50?

For any of you that are interested you can view the whole post here, post 824: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=92313#post92313

cheers

Yep.

You have to be a believer in the resource and that they are going to get it out as forecast though. Potential for more delays, downgrades yada yada..

The Mint Man · 16 November 2006

True but I for one am willing to hold on through the 'negative sentiment', got a good feeling about this one .
I think that other shareholders feel the same as me after looking at the Vol over the last week or so. Slowly but surely starting to settle, less selling more holding.
15 Nov 3,166,726
14 Nov 1,965,071
13 Nov 2,685,317
10 Nov 4,104,433
09 Nov 3,427,213
Just to make my point, on the 8th Nov was over 7 million traded between hands. Even if $2.50 is a bit ambitious, I belive that BDG is currently trading at a very good discount, either way money to be made. If you looked at the depth chart over the last couple of weeks it is obvious that there are way more buyers compared to sellers. They must be seeing something in BDG, probably the same thing I saw when I bought 2 weeks ago. As Jimeoin would say 'Bargain'.

cheers

Sean K · 16 November 2006

The Mint Man said:
True but I for one am willing to hold on through the 'negative sentiment', got a good feeling about this one .
I think that other shareholders feel the same as me after looking at the Vol over the last week or so. Slowly but surely starting to settle, less selling more holding.
15 Nov 3,166,726
14 Nov 1,965,071
13 Nov 2,685,317
10 Nov 4,104,433
09 Nov 3,427,213
Just to make my point, on the 8th Nov was over 7 million traded between hands. Even if $2.50 is a bit ambitious, I belive that BDG is currently trading at a very good discount, either way money to be made. If you looked at the depth chart over the last couple of weeks it is obvious that there are way more buyers compared to sellers. They must be seeing something in BDG, probably the same thing I saw when I bought 2 weeks ago. As Jimeoin would say 'Bargain'.

cheers

When gold starts heading back towards $1000 and BDG is heading to all time highs, people are going to look at $0.80 and think, why o why did I not jump all over that! Having said that, I'm still not in. Will start looking more seriously at it when it gets back over $0.90 for a start.

YOUNG_TRADER · 16 November 2006

I'm pretty sure APS Asset Management still has a fair bit of selling to do

Profitseeker · 17 November 2006

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I'm pretty sure APS Asset Management still has a fair bit of selling to do

But judging by the announcements today the other funds are getting in. Be interesting to see what happens in December with the production on the McDermott Reef. It sounds promising. If it proves to be then the share price could really begin to recover.

Sean K · 18 November 2006

Profitseeker said:
But judging by the announcements today the other funds are getting in. Be interesting to see what happens in December with the production on the McDermott Reef. It sounds promising. If it proves to be then the share price could really begin to recover.

Yeah, I'm looking at this as a potential time to get back in. They MUST do this on time with no hickups however, or they could be looking even more foolish. The sp will be effected appropriately.

Profitseeker · 18 November 2006

kennas said:
Yeah, I'm looking at this as a potential time to get back in. They MUST do this on time with no hickups however, or they could be looking even more foolish. The sp will be effected appropriately.

I know. It would be the stuff that cold sweats is made of. On the other hand it could be champagne corks popping.

The Mint Man · 20 November 2006

Off a couple of % today, considering buying some more.
As Chicken would say:
'Accumilator at work...keeping price down..POG should run in the next few days'
Load up the truck people

Cheers

Edit: Dont let this post spook you kennas

YOUNG_TRADER · 20 November 2006

I'm pretty sure this is that APS Asset Management still selling out, may take another 2 weeks before they're out completely

Sean K · 20 November 2006

The Mint Man said:
Edit: Dont let this post spook you kennas

LOL. I've got my finger poised for this. Couldn't see it going below $0.75, unless the mine caves in.

nizar · 20 November 2006

kennas said:
Couldn't see it going below $0.75

Why not?
WHen this was $2.50 in May, i never wouldve believed you if you had told me that it would be <$1 by November, in fact, i doubt you would have believed it yourself.
Clear downtrend.

Sean K · 20 November 2006

nizar said:
Why not?
WHen this was $2.50 in May, i never wouldve believed you if you had told me that it would be <$1 by November, in fact, i doubt you would have believed it yourself.
Clear downtrend.

The placement at $0.80 was completed in a few minutes down the pub. Has plent of support there, I assume.

Current market cap about $335 m.
10m + 0z au @ $500/1000 = $5/10 bil.
Mine life about 20 years.

Lihir paid $350m for BGF which has about 3m oz au and it will run out in 4 years....

The Mint Man · 20 November 2006

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I'm pretty sure this is that APS Asset Management still selling out, may take another 2 weeks before they're out completely

True. So some more cheap buying to come
But after that what do you expect?

justjohn · 20 November 2006

The Mint Man said:
Off a couple of % today, considering buying some more.
As Chicken would say:
'Accumilator at work...keeping price down..POG should run in the next few days'
Load up the truck people

Cheers

Edit: Dont let this post spook you kennas

MINTY you be lucky to get a truck at present there all being loaded up by some mad ramping feathered bird like animal at SBM plus you forgot about ''DO YOUR RESEARCH'' :

The Mint Man · 20 November 2006

Hehe, by the way empty out your PM's.

BDG off about 4% today, although the whole market got smashed. So yeh load up the truck and do your research

YOUNG_TRADER · 21 November 2006

Great an SPP@80c

How much money do these w@nkers need to dig that gold up?

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