BCC - Buccaneer Energy

prawn_86 said:

Wow, BCC has been smashed lately.

I see no fundamental reason for this. It has fallen 50% from its highs, whereas gas has only fallen 35%. They will have increased cashflow by years end.

I know the market is always 'right', but i just dont get it sometimes. Keeps getting cheaper IMO....

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Prawn its the story of the entire mkt, everywhere you look bargains galore, joke mkt caps all over the place

I have been relaxing for the last 2 weeks, buying some things which I reckon are cheap, but am not focusing on mkts too much panic and fear

Ann out: Reserves of the Jaguar Project

1P reserves of 18bcf and 880k barrels.

Also if they decide to drill a 5th well there is potential for another 12bcf.

Effectively this project has just doubled their reserves yet the market does nothing. Oh well im happy holding...

prawn_86 said:

Ann out: Reserves of the Jaguar Project

1P reserves of 18bcf and 880k barrels.

Also if they decide to drill a 5th well there is potential for another 12bcf.

Effectively this project has just doubled their reserves yet the market does nothing. Oh well im happy holding...

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So you were not shaken out of the heads prawn?50c a long way off now yet the company continues to build reserves and produce the oil/gas in GOM.Another one of those indeterminable time things.

Wysiwyg said:

So you were not shaken out of the heads prawn?

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Certainly not Wysi.

I have assigned my own fundy valuation on them and i will sell when the price reaches that valuation. To me the more it falls the cheaper it gets, but i know the whole falling knife thing so i wouldnt buy any more until another uptrend was in place.

They are advancing projects, gaining new leases, have heaps of drilling coming up and are profitable, so i see no reason to sell.

prawn,
I think BCC is a very very very good company but as I said elsewhere, this sort of stock can fall for little reason, and the fact that its highly correlated to market risk is a MAJOR...
IE: markets fall, BCC falls... markets rise.... BCC stays the same... then when markets fall again, BCC falls... its a downtrending spec in a sideways market...
its a double whammy for many spec stocks (like this one) that suffer when market trend sideways (downtrending)..... another one of those stocks that gets savaged is PRE... ie, falls on down days... sideways on up day...
Prawn,
Looks to me like you will go down with the BCC ship...
very very good stock as I said...
Its Time to get real interested when this stock hits 20cents...
later...

.^sc

Shrewd Crude said:

Its Time to get real interested when this stock hits 20cents...
later...

.^sc

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Sure is. I already have my order in at that price

The funny thing is that it shouldnt really be a spec. It has a solid and growing revenue stream and is on a PE of less than 1. It will be recognised by the market one day, its just a matter of when.

prawn,
do you have an opinion of EXR which shares the Pompano project with BCC.....?
I do really like BCC, im just abit iffy about all stocks at the moment... Ive loaded up on one stock that will perform over the next year in any market and Im just going to sit tight until it comes through....
You are right about BCC...

.^sc

BCC has just announced they were the highest bidder for the Tuna and Tang projects.

These projects are said to fit the same profile as their other projects and will be drilled in 2009, if awarded. Now just wait 1 - 3 months for details of if the leases are awarded to BCC.

Good to see managment getting on with the job, just need some market recognition now. Still 5 wells to come this year....

Good to see hurricane season is having no effect on operations so far:

Prawn,

Currently operations are proceeding normally, the hurricane’s current track is to pass well north of the Pompano operations and it is unlikely that production will be shut-in until the storm passes.

We are currently preparing operations to drill Pompano 3. The rig we have contracted is currently positioned further north in the process of finishing a contract for another party, it has been evacuated as a precaution so we are waiting to make sure it will moving to our position as planned before we make a release updating the market. I expect to be able to say something late this week or possibly early next week.

regards,
Dean L Gallegos
Director

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I doubt ann will say too much, so no doubt there will be very little reaction from the market. Lee County drilling should be coming up soon also.

ASX RELEASE – 3 SEPTEMBER 2008
PROJECT ACQUISITION – RUBY PROSPECT
STATE WATERS – OFFSHORE LOUISIANA
Buccaneer Energy Limited (“Buccaneer” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce
that it has acquired a 25% Working Interest (18.5% Net Revenue Interest) in the
Ruby Prospect from Jurasin Oil & Gas, Inc., a well established Gulf Coast prospect
generating company.
The Ruby Prospect is located in a prolific, multi‐interval producing field in the
shallow state waters offshore Louisiana and targets both proved undeveloped
reserves (“PUD”) and major exploration targets with high reserve potential.
Plans are to drill a 17,000 ft well for PUD natural gas and condensate reserves
offsetting existing field productive sands at 12,500 feet, and then test large reserve
potential, exploratory objectives below in the deeper portion of the well.
The deep section is expected to have thick, high quality reservoir sands on the
same fault closure that traps gas in the shallower PUD sands, and as such, reduces
the geological risk of accumulation in the deeper targets. The exploratory
objectives could hold natural gas and condensate reserves in the range of 100’s of
BCFG and millions of barrels.
The Company engaged Ralph E. Davis Associates, Inc., during the due diligence
phase of this acquisition. They have estimated PUD reserves of 6.1 BCF of gas and
165,000 barrels of condensate to the 100% working interest. There are additional
drilling locations that contain additional proved undeveloped reserves.
The PUD reserves in the first drilling location will make the project an economic
success for the Company, and a discovery in the deep exploratory section could
lead to multiple drilling locations in those sands. The project is therefore an
excellent fit to the Company’s strategy for low risk prospects that also have high
growth value potential if the exploratory upside is successful.
The Ruby Prospect well will be drilled by a third party operator that owns the
remaining 75% working interest in the prospect. Drilling is scheduled to
commence in the first quarter of 2009 and is expected to take about 60 days to
drill and test. Production should commence in the second quarter of 2009.
Additional details on the project will be released as plans are finalised later in
2008.
The Company’s 25% Working Interest (“WI”) is subject to a 25% back‐in to Jurasin
Oil & Gas, Inc. after project payout. After back‐in, the Company’s Working Interest
will reduce to 18.75% (14.25% Net Revenue Interest).
The Ruby project is the project referred to as “TBA” in the drilling schedule in the Company’s
fourth quarter report.
For further information please contact Dean Gallegos on 0416 220 007 or 02 9233 2520,
alternatively visit the Company’s website at www.buccenergy.com.
Yours faithfully
BUCCANEER ENERGY LIMITED
Mr Dean Gallegos
Director

Well this was unexpected. Adds another 1.2Bcf to their reserves plus another heap of potential upside

Here is a list of their projects jsut off the top of my head:

Pompano - 2 more wells drilled this yr
Lee County - At least one well this year
Cougar - Huge oil upside
Jaguar - At least one well this year
Redfish - virtually identical to Pompano
Ruby - drilling q1 2009
Bright Star
Smackover
Tuna
Tang

So we all know how active they are, that they are profitable, that the management are competent and seem to know what they are doing. The question is will the market ever recognise these facts?

prawn_86 said:

Well this was unexpected. Adds another 1.2Bcf to their reserves plus another heap of potential upside

Here is a list of their projects jsut off the top of my head:

Pompano - 2 more wells drilled this yr
Lee County - At least one well this year
Cougar - Huge oil upside
Jaguar - At least one well this year
Redfish - virtually identical to Pompano
Ruby - drilling q1 2009
Bright Star
Smackover
Tuna
Tang

So we all know how active they are, that they are profitable, that the management are competent and seem to know what they are doing. The question is will the market ever recognise these facts?

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Hopefully the market does not realise for another month or two so i can buy into this comapny at a bargain price lol

An article from the Age on Natural Gas .. though more on the Australian Market ..

Why gas is really cooking
• James Kirby
• September 6, 2008

Green and growing, this is one stock that will make everyone happy.
IT MUST be towards the end of the Oscar winner Terms of Endearment when Shirley MacLaine turns to Jack Nicholson and says: "Who'd have thought you'd turn out to be a good guy." Switch to the stockmarket and you'll find a similar reassessment is happening to energy stocks, especially in anything to do with gas.

Now you might find the idea of gas unexciting, and until very recently gas stocks were about as attractive as, say, Carlton's Brendan Fevola … in drag.
But over the past year or so a few amazing things happened in the gas industry. In the middle of a decidedly gloomy stockmarket, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), coal seam gas - any kind of gas that can be extracted and sold in volume - suddenly emerged as the answer to urgent energy and air-quality problems, especially across Asia.

Gas is clean. If Chinese power stations ran on it rather than coal you might have been able to see more of the Olympic city rather than the soupy blur that passed for greater Beijing. Gas is cheap. It is priced roughly at a 17% discount to oil (and that's changing, but more on that later). Environmentalists love it - or at least praise it as an alternative to coal and nuclear power.

Gas outperformed all other environmentally friendly stocks over the past year and environmental stocks outperformed the market. Here are the numbers. While most companies struggled to increase profits, gas companies were among the dramatic outperformers - profits doubled at Envestra and Arrow Gas. Boosted substantially by gas companies, 20 of the 24 environmental stocks on the ASX increased profits.

Admittedly, in the past few days oil and gas stocks such as Woodside have dropped in price as part of a wider sell-off in commodities. But while the outlook for some commodities - base metals, for example - might be worsening, the long-term outlook for gas-related stocks is strong, with stockbrokers recommending everything from the market leader - Woodside (market capitalisation $40 billion) - to exploration and service stocks.
Oil and gas leader Woodside, is already a top 10 stock and will probably double in size again in the next few years as some huge projects come on stream, especially Pluto on the North West Shelf. It can be hard to appreciate just how big some of these resource projects are but you can think of the Pluto project as a $12 billion construction job - and the biggest project on the books at any company in Australia this year.
Santos, the nearest thing to a Woodside rival, is only a quarter of the size. But with a new chief executive, David Knox, and a very big gas project pipeline on the order books, the company is emerging as a big player, especially after a recent deal with the Petronas Group (the guys behind those skyscraper towers in Kuala Lumpur), which established the value of its oil and gas assets.

Behind these two leaders is a string of pure play gas companies including takeover target Origin Energy and AGL, and smaller players such as Queensland Gas and Karoon.

And behind all the improved prospects for all these companies - along with their valuable, if intangible, classification as green stocks - is a fundamental realignment in the price of gas.

As I said, gas has traditionally traded at a discount of about 17% to the "heat" equivalent price of oil. As gas starts to become more attractive due to its cleaner and cheaper status, there are signs the discount is narrowing. Powerful players in world energy markets such as Algeria are arguing gas should be priced equivalently to oil, which implies a 17% rise in the core commodity price.

Meanwhile, stockbrokers - always ready to go one step further - are suggesting gas could eventually trade at a premium to oil … and that is by no means inconceivable as the emissions trading world of Ross Garnaut edges closer. Who'd have thought gas - so long outshined by oil - would turn out to be a "nice" investment suitable for the hard nosed and environmentalists alike.
On fire

Despite the stockmarket sell-off "environmental" stocks are thriving.
Gas stocks are the environmental sector's most successful stocks.
Gas is cleaner than rival resources such as oil and coal.
Australia has a collection of very successful gas stocks.
A traditional price discount of gas to oil could soon disappear.

A shocking few months for bcc!

1. Plummeting natural gas price to approx $7 btu
2. General commodities crash
3. A big release of quarantined shares
4. Hurricane season in US
5. Significant build up of natural gas reserves

For what its worth I think many of these negatives are on the way out.

1. Gas prices are certain to rise over the oncoming US winter
2. (Dont know about this one!)
3. No longer an issue
4. BCC dodged a bullet with Ike, production to be back on line in a couple of days with no damage. Pipelines and the hub are back in action. New drilling at pompano within the week!
5. Due to big outage from gulf of mexico over past month, US gas reserves are no longer looking like a glut, more like average levels - which guarantees the winter spice in price (provided we dont have economic doomsday)

So in a sane world this company should be on the rise very soon. With 5 more wells in the next few months will spike up. Thats my 2c!

Yep, making new all time lows unfortunately

Yet another example of fear and greed ruling the stock market, no rationality whatsoever. Whoever said the market was efficient obviously never participated in it, or was stoned/high/drunk at the time of saying it.

prawn_86 said:

Yep, making new all time lows unfortunately

Yet another example of fear and greed ruling the stock market, no rationality whatsoever. Whoever said the market was efficient obviously never participated in it, or was stoned/high/drunk at the time of saying it.

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I guess I'm mildly surprised this has copped such a hammering, but in other ways not really. I think you can pretty much chuck fundamental analysis out the window for the time being, as you could easily throw a blanket over 200 companies on the ASX and they would all look undervalued and oversold. Essentially until some sanity is restored, I'm staying the hell out. Don't know about greed being the prime driver over the past two days prawn.... but yes, everone is obviously s$$t scared right now...

This bit of news could be big for BCC, its an admission by the big gun of shale natural gas drilling in the US that they are scaling back production as they are below break even point at current gas prices. Its common knowledge that shale gas extraction is more expensive than traditional gas drilling, maybe this announcement puts a floor under natural gas prices?? Anyway, its great for BCC

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1896399/

Would appreciate if any geos or O&G guns could interpret todays ann.

My take is as follows:

Current well has gas but not as much as expected so they deciding wether it is even worth brining online.

The very first well has been shut in due to water contamination and will be fixed when they can get someone to do it (ASAP). However the amount of gas is still the same as their models had predicted as they tested it during the last hurricane

Well it sure did get smashed on the back of that ann yesterday.

Would still appreciate someone elses take on it...

prawn_86 said:

Would appreciate if any geos or O&G guns could interpret todays ann.

My take is as follows:

Current well has gas but not as much as expected so they deciding wether it is even worth brining online.

The very first well has been shut in due to water contamination and will be fixed when they can get someone to do it (ASAP). However the amount of gas is still the same as their models had predicted as they tested it during the last hurricane

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Sounds more or less right to me Prawn,

Sheesh, these guys have copped an absolute hammering. So the seismic interpretation for Well#3 was not up to scratch, is it worth spending another $2-3M sidetracking this thing?...maybe...maybe not. We'll find out over the next 2-3 weeks I'm sure. And Well#1 is leaking and they need another rig to fix it. My take is that they were attempting to prevent mixing of gas from one sedimentary unit with the water from an underlying sedimentary unit from mixing. Doesn't sound like much of a science, just pour an absolute s$$tload of concrete down the middle of the drill string(?), or some other device, and hope like hell it does the job and keeps them separated. I don't know much about O&G technology, but it sounds like it could be a rather expensive remedial job don't you think?

At least Well#2 is ok.

jman