Banks turning the corner?

[vishalt]

100th post is mine I think the banks have the worst behind them, but I think non-bank financial stocks are the best value- things like insurers and wealth management companies as they have still been hammered but aren't as exposed credit issues . Still, I so nearly bought ANZ under $20, ah well

Lol same, ANZ really is looking like the cheapest.

I wanted to buy BoQ too buy it surged too much today and it hasn't suffered as much as the other banks or Bendigo.

 

[chops_a_must]

Lol same, ANZ really is looking like the cheapest.

I wanted to buy BoQ too buy it surged too much today and it hasn't suffered as much as the other banks or Bendigo.

But that's precisely a reason for buying... relative strength is a fantastic sentiment indicator...

BEN has a lot of crap to deal with.

 

[vishalt]

ANZ has almost surged 20% in the last 4 sessions, I'll keep my cool, if there's one lesson I've learnt is keep your cool!

Hopefully ANZ retests that level or near abouts.

You know what, have we been at a bottom for months?

Look @ The Dow, it has held that 11,700+ level since January..

 

[chops_a_must]

ANZ has almost surged 20% in the last 4 sessions, I'll keep my cool, if there's one lesson I've learnt is keep your cool!

Hopefully ANZ retests that level or near abouts.

You know what, have we been at a bottom for months?

Look @ The Dow, it has held that 11,700+ level since January..

The S&P went through the Jan lows though. It's why wayne calls the Dow the muppet index.

Another up night on the S&P tonight, and it would be an upside break out of a descending triangle. Quite possibly good for a continuation given the feds action to stop armageddon for another month...

 

[wayneL]

Look @ The Dow, it has held that 11,700+ level since January..

And due to the most frantic Fed manipulation and intervention for decades. Can they keep the fantasy alive for a few more years?

The American people have the capacity to engineer a remarkable recovery, but what I see is all that intellectual capital being used to prop up a diseased and morally bankrupt smoke and mirrors show. Meanwhile The Chinese are taking the running. Very bad move strategically.

For a bit of short term pain, the US could clear up all the malinvestment, cut out the disease and addiction to toxicity in their economy, and snatch back economic inspiration from China.

The banks could then truly turn the corner and become virtually impregnably sound investments. Until then, they remain vulnerable.

Good for trading at the moment. But nuttin' going in my bottom drawer yet.

 

[GreatPig]

For a bit of short term pain, the US could clear up all the malinvestment, cut out the disease and addiction to toxicity in their economy

What do you think they should do to achieve that, and how much of a "bit" do you think that pain would actually be - to both the US and the rest of the world?

Cheers,
GP

 

[wayneL]

What do you think they should do to achieve that, and how much of a "bit" do you think that pain would actually be - to both the US and the rest of the world?

Cheers,
GP

Just let capitalism work as intended instead of turning into rabid Keynesian hybrid socialists when the poo hits the propeller. Had the Fed taken the Austrian course in 2001-2004, the "bit" of pain would be all over and there would be an entirely different economic landscape with regards to China.

Unfortunately now, at some stage (whether this is imminent or now delayed) the "bit" of pain will be quite a "bit" more. It doesn't have to be a 1930s-esque depression, but it could be. As it was, we were a donkey's eyelash away from cascading cross-default; a situation that never needed to be.

It's short-termism versus long-termism and this is where China will eventually kick the US's azz.

 

[GreatPig]

It's short-termism versus long-termism and this is where China will eventually kick the US's azz.

China probably has an advantage there though, as their government doesn't have to worry about losing office every few years so can afford to be more forward-looking.

GP

 

[wayneL]

China probably has an advantage there though, as their government doesn't have to worry about losing office every few years so can afford to be more forward-looking.

GP

Very very true... an unfortunate aspect of our political system. Nobody wants a recession on their watch, hence the lure of manipulation and pump priming.

 

[reece55]

Very very true... an unfortunate aspect of our political system. Nobody wants a recession on their watch, hence the lure of manipulation and pump priming.

Geez, I never actually thought of that Gents, that is a very interesting aspect that I had never considered. Perhaps a pro for communism?????????

The problem is not necessarily with Governments holding office for a short period, but rather the general belief by the public that Governments can actually manufacture interest rates and prosperity - they can certainly provide stimulus, but are impacted by external factors (i.e. the world economy)..... Me thinks that Rudd and Labour will only get one term in office in Australia....

Cheers

 

[Kauri]

NAB lifted its main home loan interest rate for the 3rd time in just over six weeks, as the cost of credit to Australian banks continues to rise. Australian banks are passing on the costs of offshore funding spreads and this is being passed on to consumers. This higher cost is seen weighing on consumption and is a factor why analysts are now lower expectations for further RBA rate hikes.
Melbourne Age ..reports that property portfolios "worth $4 bln plus are being prepared for sale to anyone who has the cash to buy." There are concerns over higher geared property trusts, many said to be geared at over 50%.

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[agro]

financial sector recovering too - BNB, CGF, MQG all half price to all time highs

 

[dhukka]

I suspect Bove is trying to redeem his reputation by making a big call. To his credit he was negative on financials this time last year, however as the above indicates he was too early to put a buy on Citigroup. Also he repeated for at least a month that there was no way Citigroup needed to cut it's dividend.

Meredith Whitney on the other hand has absolutely nailed it with US financials. Do a search on her name on CNBC video. At this point she has more credibility than Bove. Although in that game you're only as good as your last call.

Meredith is at it again. Still plenty of fun left for the banks.

Oppenheimer again cuts estimates on Citigroup, banks

Oppenheimer & Co. analysts led by Meredith Whitney cut their first-quarter profit forecasts for U.S. banks on average by 84%, led by Citigroup Inc. (C) . Whitney increased her first-quarter loss estimate for Citigroup by four times, and expects the company to post a full-year loss of 15 cents a share. She also slashed her outlooks on Bank of America Corp. (BAC) , J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Wachovia Corp. (WB) to reflect expected write-downs related to mortgages and collateralized debt obligations. "Despite cutting estimates for financials by over 30 times since November, we are confident this will not be our last reduction in 2008," Whitney wrote in a research note. "Rather as key mark-to-market indices trend lower, the housing market worsens, and the U.S. consumer comes under increasing pressure, we anticipate further downside to both estimates and stock prices."

 

[Aussiejeff]

NAB lifted its main home loan interest rate for the 3rd time in just over six weeks, as the cost of credit to Australian banks continues to rise. Australian banks are passing on the costs of offshore funding spreads and this is being passed on to consumers. This higher cost is seen weighing on consumption and is a factor why analysts are now lower expectations for further RBA rate hikes...

Expectations for RBA to lower the rate of hikes?

On the other hand....

"NAB's Australian head Ahmed Fahour said the rate hike reflected sustained increases to short and long term wholesale funding costs. He said NAB had been absorbing much of the higher borrowing costs on behalf of customers since August 2007.

"The true cost of funding a home loan is no longer reflected by the RBA cash rate," Mr Fahour said. NAB's new rate takes effect from Wednesday, March 26."

Hmmm . NAB boss cocky Ahmed's comments seems to indicate that if the RBA doesn't hike enough in the next round, then NAB will "go it alone" again... and probably again ... and even again.... if they deem it so.

If anyone (like Wayne Swan) thinks the other banks won't follow with their own *independent* rate rises (eventually, if not at the same time - or earlier), they are bound to be surprised...... Swannie has rocks in his head if he thinks the populace are going to go *bank shopping* just to save his (probable) short-lived political seat at the next election. Methinks he's drinking from the same poisoned chalice as Gough's Gang....



AJ

 

[juiceman]

Expectations for RBA to lower the rate of hikes?

On the other hand....

"NAB's Australian head Ahmed Fahour said the rate hike reflected sustained increases to short and long term wholesale funding costs. He said NAB had been absorbing much of the higher borrowing costs on behalf of customers since August 2007.

"The true cost of funding a home loan is no longer reflected by the RBA cash rate," Mr Fahour said. NAB's new rate takes effect from Wednesday, March 26."

Hmmm . NAB boss cocky Ahmed's comments seems to indicate that if the RBA doesn't hike enough in the next round, then NAB will "go it alone" again... and probably again ... and even again.... if they deem it so.

If anyone (like Wayne Swan) thinks the other banks won't follow with their own *independent* rate rises (eventually, if not at the same time - or earlier), they are bound to be surprised...... Swannie has rocks in his head if he thinks the populace are going to go *bank shopping* just to save his (probable) short-lived political seat at the next election. Methinks he's drinking from the same poisoned chalice as Gough's Gang....



AJ

Just had to comment on the above.
I could not agree more.
Because the Labor Gov do not understand buisiness the bank's will have a field day with them.
They obviosley do not respect Kevin and wayne and will run their own race.
The flood gate's have been opened, God help us.
You cannot run a country on piss and wind for very long

 

[The Mint Man]

Just posted a thread titled 'RBA's Financial Stability Review' in general chat. It contains some info about our banking sector that is relevant to this thread.
heres a link for the lazy ones - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10387

Cheers

 

[nomore4s]

Just had to comment on the above.
I could not agree more.
Because the Labor Gov do not understand buisiness the bank's will have a field day with them.
They obviosley do not respect Kevin and wayne and will run their own race.
The flood gate's have been opened, God help us.
You cannot run a country on piss and wind for very long

So if John Howard & co were still running the country the banks would be acting any different?
I don't think so, they'll still be raising rates due to the extra costs.

 

[juiceman]

So if John Howard & co were still running the country the banks would be acting any different?
I don't think so, they'll still be raising rates due to the extra costs.

When John Howard & Co were running the country, the bank's were not doing what they are doing now, nor had they ever to my knowledge.
Last year when rates moved up slowly Kev said it was Howards fault, now all Swan can say is move Banks?
Costello may have surgested that we may need a few more International Bank's in our system, and add a little competition

 

[IFocus]

When John Howard & Co were running the country, the bank's were not doing what they are doing now, nor had they ever to my knowledge.
Last year when rates moved up slowly Kev said it was Howards fault, now all Swan can say is move Banks?
Costello may have surgested that we may need a few more International Bank's in our system, and add a little competition

Cost of borrowing has changed dramatically for the banks nothing to do with government surprised at the association.

And yes it has happened before.....plenty of history of credit bubbles / failures and increased borrowing costs associated with this again nothing to do with governments.

However government spending can impact on interest rates through helping to drive inflation.

 

[wayneL]

Cost of borrowing has changed dramatically for the banks nothing to do with government surprised at the association.

And yes it has happened before.....plenty of history of credit bubbles / failures and increased borrowing costs associated with this again nothing to do with governments.

However government spending can impact on interest rates through helping to drive inflation.

Exactly! When will people learn this and realize the gu'mint has very little actual control.

Like a couple of us said last year, the best thing for the Libs was to lose the election, because Labour will cop the blame for the "recession we're going to have to have".