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Most major Oz banks down 5-6% so far today. Must be on the nose or sumfink....
AJ
AJ
Banks turning the corner?
- Thread starter Bill M
- Start date
Kauri
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mmmmmmmmm... 
- Fitch is saying that Asia Banks fundamentals are at risk due to the on-going problems with credit.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia_Bank
- Fitch is saying that Asia Banks fundamentals are at risk due to the on-going problems with credit.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia_Bank
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Is MQG hiding something that we don't know? Let's hope they're not the next Bears!
Let's hope they're not the next Bears!
Kauri
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European banks are in the chicanes...
European shares are taking a hit with financial sectors braced to take the biggest fall. UBS shares are already pricing in a 10% fall while UK Clearers Barclays & HBOS are down around 6% with Germany"s Deutsche Bank pricing in a fall of just below 5%.
Cheeeeers
.............KKKKKKK
European shares are taking a hit with financial sectors braced to take the biggest fall. UBS shares are already pricing in a 10% fall while UK Clearers Barclays & HBOS are down around 6% with Germany"s Deutsche Bank pricing in a fall of just below 5%.
Cheeeeers
.............KKKKKKK
An interesting view. Did a quick search of this guy credential on Google.
The analyst advised clients to sell shares of the biggest U.S. investment banks firms in July 2007 the like of Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns. He also downgraded Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index declined 19 percent in the next four months, and 40-50% to March 2008..
But his recommendation to buy Citigroup Inc. in November 2007 preceded a 29 percent plunge in shares of the biggest U.S. bank by assets.
Punk “Once in a Generation Opportunity to Buy Bank Stocks” - Punk Ziegel
Despair not. It’s the Easter weekend. Salvation may be upon us. The financial crisis is over, says Richard Bove of US brokerage Punk Ziegel & Co.
This comment sounds ridiculous given the conviction on the part of most commentators that the worst is yet to come; the extent of the decline is unknown; and that the length of the decline is similarly unclear. However, I do, in fact, believe that the crisis is over. There will be more negative developments but they will be meaningless. Further, let me be clear even though the financial crisis is over the problems facing the economy are not.
Bove’s broad thesis:
A crisis builds up over an extended period of time. It ultimately reaches a crescendo when an event occurs that is so devastating that even the staunchest skeptics become fearful. At this point, the government and participants in the impacted sector get together and start to take actions that will ameliorate the crisis. At this point, the only question is whether the solutions being offered have any chance of working. However, if the solutions are powerful enough, the crisis ends.
In the current crisis, the triggering event was clearly the insolvency of Bear Stearns (BSC/$5.26/Market Perform). This event sent so much fear through the markets that action was taken. The President of the United States was involved, as was the Treasury Secretary, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the President of the Federal Reserve of New York, and key industry executives.
The actions taken by the Federal Reserve were innovative, dramatic, and, in my view, brilliant because they went right to the problem.
Bove accepts that hurdles remain.
The first doubt is whether it has the money to succeed in this effort. The Federal Reserve only has $921 billion in assets… In my view, the Fed needs support from foreign central banks to achieve its goals. This help is quite likely because the dollar is plunging in value…
A second fear is that the Federal Reserve will take in so many bad securities through swaps and as loan collateral that bad debts will rise costing the taxpayer money. This is doubtful and is simply fear overwhelming logic…
The Federal Reserve has actually created a template that will increase liquidity in the banking system and, just as importantly, bank profits.
But understand this:
Every study I have read is convinced that housing prices will continue to drop for an extended period. This is as dead wrong as the reports that argued some years ago that housing prices would keep rising for an extended period. Think of this:
• Money supply is growing rapidly;
• Commodity prices are soaring;
• The dollar is falling sharply; and
• Real estate prices are falling.
Does this last line make sense? When was the last time real estate prices fell in a general period of commodity inflation? I cannot think of such a time. I live in Florida where foreigners can and are buying prime real estate at deeply depressed prices with very, very cheap dollars. This may turn out to be the bargain of the century and I mean century.
So, to recap, with the help of President Bush, brilliant Ben Bernanke has created a situation that will pump profits into the US banking system. Foreigners will cheer this on so as to halt the dollar rot. “This is a once in a generationopportunity.”
The analyst advised clients to sell shares of the biggest U.S. investment banks firms in July 2007 the like of Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns. He also downgraded Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index declined 19 percent in the next four months, and 40-50% to March 2008..
But his recommendation to buy Citigroup Inc. in November 2007 preceded a 29 percent plunge in shares of the biggest U.S. bank by assets.
Punk “Once in a Generation Opportunity to Buy Bank Stocks” - Punk Ziegel
Despair not. It’s the Easter weekend. Salvation may be upon us. The financial crisis is over, says Richard Bove of US brokerage Punk Ziegel & Co.
This comment sounds ridiculous given the conviction on the part of most commentators that the worst is yet to come; the extent of the decline is unknown; and that the length of the decline is similarly unclear. However, I do, in fact, believe that the crisis is over. There will be more negative developments but they will be meaningless. Further, let me be clear even though the financial crisis is over the problems facing the economy are not.
Bove’s broad thesis:
A crisis builds up over an extended period of time. It ultimately reaches a crescendo when an event occurs that is so devastating that even the staunchest skeptics become fearful. At this point, the government and participants in the impacted sector get together and start to take actions that will ameliorate the crisis. At this point, the only question is whether the solutions being offered have any chance of working. However, if the solutions are powerful enough, the crisis ends.
In the current crisis, the triggering event was clearly the insolvency of Bear Stearns (BSC/$5.26/Market Perform). This event sent so much fear through the markets that action was taken. The President of the United States was involved, as was the Treasury Secretary, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the President of the Federal Reserve of New York, and key industry executives.
The actions taken by the Federal Reserve were innovative, dramatic, and, in my view, brilliant because they went right to the problem.
Bove accepts that hurdles remain.
The first doubt is whether it has the money to succeed in this effort. The Federal Reserve only has $921 billion in assets… In my view, the Fed needs support from foreign central banks to achieve its goals. This help is quite likely because the dollar is plunging in value…
A second fear is that the Federal Reserve will take in so many bad securities through swaps and as loan collateral that bad debts will rise costing the taxpayer money. This is doubtful and is simply fear overwhelming logic…
The Federal Reserve has actually created a template that will increase liquidity in the banking system and, just as importantly, bank profits.
But understand this:
Every study I have read is convinced that housing prices will continue to drop for an extended period. This is as dead wrong as the reports that argued some years ago that housing prices would keep rising for an extended period. Think of this:
• Money supply is growing rapidly;
• Commodity prices are soaring;
• The dollar is falling sharply; and
• Real estate prices are falling.
Does this last line make sense? When was the last time real estate prices fell in a general period of commodity inflation? I cannot think of such a time. I live in Florida where foreigners can and are buying prime real estate at deeply depressed prices with very, very cheap dollars. This may turn out to be the bargain of the century and I mean century.
So, to recap, with the help of President Bush, brilliant Ben Bernanke has created a situation that will pump profits into the US banking system. Foreigners will cheer this on so as to halt the dollar rot. “This is a once in a generationopportunity.”
I suspect Bove is trying to redeem his reputation by making a big call. To his credit he was negative on financials this time last year, however as the above indicates he was too early to put a buy on Citigroup. Also he repeated for at least a month that there was no way Citigroup needed to cut it's dividend.
Meredith Whitney on the other hand has absolutely nailed it with US financials. Do a search on her name on CNBC video. At this point she has more credibility than Bove. Although in that game you're only as good as your last call.
Meredith Whitney on the other hand has absolutely nailed it with US financials. Do a search on her name on CNBC video. At this point she has more credibility than Bove. Although in that game you're only as good as your last call.
I've heard Meredith, a very smart and gorgeous lady, the lady that moves Wall Street hey
The guy may be right and may be wrong on the timing but timing is the most difficult beast to nail.
Also individual banks are too hard for us average investor to pick but as a sector this might just be very true. JP Morgan, HSBC , Barclays are starting to trade better. And look at the recent outperformance of banks vs the recent commodities pullback as 'just the tentative' sign of a clue.
The guy may be right and may be wrong on the timing but timing is the most difficult beast to nail.
Also individual banks are too hard for us average investor to pick but as a sector this might just be very true. JP Morgan, HSBC , Barclays are starting to trade better. And look at the recent outperformance of banks vs the recent commodities pullback as 'just the tentative' sign of a clue.
I reckon our Banks have found a bottom last week. Not saying that they will shoot up from here and never look back, but at least the support level we've seen last week is a strong one.
On a TA level, please have a look at Motorway's Market Indicator thread. NAB, ANZ, SGB, BOQ, WBC all score on three level, 2%, 1%, 0.5% BullishPercent indicators. If you pick up these banks last week, and plan to hold them long term, you found an excellent bargain I reckon.
On a TA level, please have a look at Motorway's Market Indicator thread. NAB, ANZ, SGB, BOQ, WBC all score on three level, 2%, 1%, 0.5% BullishPercent indicators. If you pick up these banks last week, and plan to hold them long term, you found an excellent bargain I reckon.
A bottom and not the bottom???
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Got this from Gold World this morning, some newsletter I signed up for and usually ignore. Take from it what you will, they are probably trying to sell me gold but the last three para's are exactly what I was expecting in the next few months.
J.P. Morgan's Dirty Little Secret
By Greg McCoach | Monday, March 24th, 2008
Events last week have prompted me to send out this communication regarding the sudden collapse of the precious metals market. Let's take a look at what caused the collapse and why junior mining companies are the one glimmer of hope amid the chaos.
Bear Stearns, J.P. Morgan, and the Precious Metals Market
The demise of Bear Stearns, which was reported to the public last Sunday evening and Monday, has in turn caused their assets to be sold off in masse this week.
On their book of liquid assets was a rather large, long gold position. It is being sold off in order to raise cash to offset their massive losses. The spot prices have been hammered because of this activity, but it will be short-term in nature. If you're looking to buy physical precious metals to diversify your portfolio at this point, you are being given an unexpected gift to do so. It won't last long.
Another item in Bear Stearns closet was a massive short-position in the ten year treasury. This of course is being unwound this week, which is making the dollar look a bit stronger than it really is. However, don't be confused by this nonsense, the dollar will soon resume its downward trend.
The fact that Bear Stearns was shorting the dollar to such a degree shows that they were not playing along with the the Federal Reserve banking crowd. And they have been severely punished by the powers that be.
What brought Bear Stearns to its knees was their own riverboat gambling mentality that not only jeopardized them, but the financial system as a whole. This story is just the beginning of what will be a long list of companies that meet a similar fate. Will the Fed and the citizens of the United States be able to bail out all the financial sewage that is about to be uncovered?
What the Fed is doing is nothing more than sleight of hand trickery to gain the assets of Bear Stearns. As I have said before, the Federal Reserve is no more "Federal" than Federal Express. It is a private organization owned and controlled by shareholders, the largest of which is J.P. Morgan Chase.
J.P. Morgan Chase, in other words, is the Federal Reserve... so don't be surprised that they end up with the assets while you and I pay for the debts from the whole mess.
When are people in the United States going to wake up to the ugly realities that are now upon us? This ongoing calamity of financial chaos is going to cause extremely serious consequences to each and every American. Your wealth, security and lifestyle are all at stake as the coming months and years unfold.
J.P. Morgan's Dirty Little Secret
By Greg McCoach | Monday, March 24th, 2008
Events last week have prompted me to send out this communication regarding the sudden collapse of the precious metals market. Let's take a look at what caused the collapse and why junior mining companies are the one glimmer of hope amid the chaos.
Bear Stearns, J.P. Morgan, and the Precious Metals Market
The demise of Bear Stearns, which was reported to the public last Sunday evening and Monday, has in turn caused their assets to be sold off in masse this week.
On their book of liquid assets was a rather large, long gold position. It is being sold off in order to raise cash to offset their massive losses. The spot prices have been hammered because of this activity, but it will be short-term in nature. If you're looking to buy physical precious metals to diversify your portfolio at this point, you are being given an unexpected gift to do so. It won't last long.
Another item in Bear Stearns closet was a massive short-position in the ten year treasury. This of course is being unwound this week, which is making the dollar look a bit stronger than it really is. However, don't be confused by this nonsense, the dollar will soon resume its downward trend.
The fact that Bear Stearns was shorting the dollar to such a degree shows that they were not playing along with the the Federal Reserve banking crowd. And they have been severely punished by the powers that be.
What brought Bear Stearns to its knees was their own riverboat gambling mentality that not only jeopardized them, but the financial system as a whole. This story is just the beginning of what will be a long list of companies that meet a similar fate. Will the Fed and the citizens of the United States be able to bail out all the financial sewage that is about to be uncovered?
What the Fed is doing is nothing more than sleight of hand trickery to gain the assets of Bear Stearns. As I have said before, the Federal Reserve is no more "Federal" than Federal Express. It is a private organization owned and controlled by shareholders, the largest of which is J.P. Morgan Chase.
J.P. Morgan Chase, in other words, is the Federal Reserve... so don't be surprised that they end up with the assets while you and I pay for the debts from the whole mess.
When are people in the United States going to wake up to the ugly realities that are now upon us? This ongoing calamity of financial chaos is going to cause extremely serious consequences to each and every American. Your wealth, security and lifestyle are all at stake as the coming months and years unfold.
Correction then, 'the bottom'. My own reasoning is that even if the ASX tanked to 4800 ( a figure widely predicted by many TA here), which is 12% downside from today's figure, the banks would still hold that bottom from last week.
As there is distinct rotation of sector from commodity to banks/financial already underway, I would say commodities shares have more of risk of going down than the financials. i.e. the financial sector particularly in Australia (which are not as bad as in the US) looks to have found the bottom but not the economic crisis/recession in the US.
Open for discussion for anyone to challenge this reasoning of course.
The charts are definitely showing a move back into financials/banking in the short term, and away from commodities. Of course, this may only be a short-term trend, but give the XFJ another 100 points and you'd have to say on a trend-line basis, it may have broken the down-trend. Personally, I remain bearish (based on many fundamental factors), but a technical rally may be a good ride short-term.
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Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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I would be looking for a Higher high and then a higher low before I got to excited about the Fins. But no doubt they are looking stronger after such a crappy 4 months.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Correction then, 'the bottom'. My own reasoning is that even if the ASX tanked to 4800 ( a figure widely predicted by many TA here), which is 12% downside from today's figure, the banks would still hold that bottom from last week.
As there is distinct rotation of sector from commodity to banks/financial already underway, I would say commodities shares have more of risk of going down than the financials. i.e. the financial sector particularly in Australia (which are not as bad as in the US) looks to have found the bottom but not the economic crisis/recession in the US.
Open for discussion for anyone to challenge this reasoning of course.
I have been waiting to buy into one of the big 4 during this run down for my SMSF which is currently in cash. From my own view the banks are well over due for a bounce as the trend is almost straight down since Dec.
As for The Bottom hard to say as I really wanted a shock event like one of the big four being forced to admit major exposure to some dodgey credit and some panic selling.
This may or may not happen but I think there is still risk that it may and will wait.
josjes I can see your point being up there also and it could be resources that take us down if we are to go lower aaah a cheap WPL would be nice......
Very succinct and with much veracity josjes.This article from Fortune backs up your statement.
"But even once the current crisis is past, there's another issue facing the financial sector: Will it look like it used to? "I think it is important to step back and ask some broader questions about our financial system," wrote Ben Inker, the chief investment officer for quantitative equities in global developed markets at money management firm GMO, in a recent paper. "What it does, how big it should be; and what its sustainable level of profitability might be."
These questions are obviously important for financial services firms. At its recent peak stock price in December 2006, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), for instance, sold for $53.34, or over 2 times its reported book value (and over 4 times if you exclude goodwill and intangibles) and almost 13 times its reported 2006 earnings. Do those numbers represent a baseline to which we'll return when this crisis has passed, or are they anomalies?
And the size of the financial sector may also matter for the rest of the market. In a piece last summer, credit rating agency Moody's opined that the market was safe from systemic risk in part because the $45 billion in profits reported by a group of financial firms including Citi and Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) were "considerable and significantly larger than in 1998," when those same firms reported profits of $12 billion. As the events surrounding Bear Stearns show all too clearly, the market isn't safe from systemic risk. Was Moody's wrong partly because that $45 billion isn't sustainable - or wasn't real in the first place?"
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/24/new...llst.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008032416
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Exactly the questions going through my mind; not just the financial sector, but a host of other sectors as well.
Turnover and hence profit margins have been ramped by the ludicrous excess supply of credit and I can't see consumer credit being as loose as it has been over the last few years.
Result - pressure on earnings.
chops_a_must
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You can see it on some individual stocks. BOQ especially - break through highs/ resistance off a double bottom.
Not saying the financials are done with yet... but with the XFJ going close to support, means to me that the short term play is north.
Hardly betting the house though...
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I agree.
Even if the All Ords heads down to 4800 or 4000, its BHP, Rio and Woodside who are going to tank it most, the banks may slip further but not as badly as they have been treated.
And I hope to god Woolworths falls to $20 so I have a lifetime chance to buy it D:.
Even if the All Ords heads down to 4800 or 4000, its BHP, Rio and Woodside who are going to tank it most, the banks may slip further but not as badly as they have been treated.
And I hope to god Woolworths falls to $20 so I have a lifetime chance to buy it D:.
100th post is mine I think the banks have the worst behind them, but I think non-bank financial stocks are the best value- things like insurers and wealth management companies as they have still been hammered but aren't as exposed credit issues 
. Still, I so nearly bought ANZ under $20, ah well
I think the banks have the worst behind them, but I think non-bank financial stocks are the best value- things like insurers and wealth management companies as they have still been hammered but aren't as exposed credit issues . Still, I so nearly bought ANZ under $20, ah well 